The Sam Vimes "Boots" theory of socioeconomic unfairness, often called simply the boots theory, is an economic theory that people in poverty have to buy cheap and subpar products that need to be replaced repeatedly, proving more expensive in the long run than more expensive items. The term was coined by English fantasy writer Sir Terry Pratchett in his 1993 Discworld novel Men at Arms. In the novel, Sam Vimes, the captain of the Ankh-Morpork City Watch, illustrates the concept with the example of boots.

The theory has been cited with regard to analyses of the prices of boots, fuel prices, and economic conditions in the United Kingdom.

In the Discworld series of novels by Terry Pratchett, Sam Vimes is the cynical but likable captain of the City Watch of the fictional city-state of Ankh-Morpork.^[1][2] In the 1993 novel Men at Arms, the second novel focusing on the City Watch through Vimes' perspective, Pratchett introduces the "Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness" through Vimes musing on how expensive it is to be poor:^[2][3]

The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money. Take boots, for example. ... A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. ... But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while a poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.^[4]

In the New Statesman, Marc Burrows hypothesized Pratchett drew inspiration from Robert Tressell's 1914 novel The Ragged-Trousered Philanthropists.^[5] In the book Fashion in the Fairy Tale Tradition, Rebecca-Anne C. Do Rozario argued "shoes and economic autonomy are inexorably linked" in fairy tales, citing the Boots theory as "particularly relevant" and "an insightful metaphor for inequality".^[6]

Since the publication of Men at Arms, others have also made reference to the theory.

In 2013, an article by the US ConsumerAffairs made reference to the theory in regard to purchasing items on credit, specifically regarding children's boots from the retailer Fingerhut; a $25 pair of boots, at the interest rates being offered, would cost $37 if purchased over seven months.^[7] In 2016, the left-wing blog Dorset Eye also ran an article discussing the theory, giving fuel poverty in the United Kingdom as an example of its application, citing a 2014 Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that those who pre-paid for electricity—who were most likely to be subject to fuel poverty—paid 8% more on their electricity bills than those who paid by direct debit.^[8]

In a 2020 discussion paper for the Social and Political Research Foundation, Sitara Srinivas used the theory to analyze how sustainable fashion is inaccessible compared to fast fashion.^[9] In an article titled "The Price of Poverty" published in Tribune Magazine in 2022, the theory was cited as explaining the economic predicament in the United Kingdom. Examples provided included the higher cost of renting compared to home ownership, higher interest rates for loans to impoverished people, the effects of food poverty on educational advancement, and healthcare costs.^[10]

In January 2022, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced that the inflation hit 5.4% ^[11]. The (ONS) calculates its Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is an inflation measure, based on a typical basket of goods, to reflect the actual products purchased in shops.^[12] Jack Monroe, an anti-poverty activist and gastronomic journalist, wrote an article for The Observer criticizing the official inflation rate, saying that it "grossly underestimates the true cost-of-living crisis".^[13] Monroe argued that cheaper foods had become more expensive than the CPI estimates and that the inflation is harder for "people with the least".^[14] As an example, Monroe posted on social media that the prices of low-priced foods in their local supermarket had increased way beyond the 5.4% figure over a year: rice by 344%, pasta by 141%, baked beans by 45%, canned spaghetti by 169%, bread by 29%, curry sauce by 195%. ^[15]

Monroe said they would work with others, including economists, anti-poverty activists and former ONS employees, to compile the Vimes Boots Index (VBI): a price index that would track "the most basic versions of essential items", highlighting the greater cost of poverty.^[16] Pratchett's executor, who died in 2015, supported Monroe's campaign and quoted Pratchett as saying: "Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the dark." Pratchett's daughter, writer Rhianna Pratchett, backed the index and said her father "would be proud to see his work used in that way."​ Therefore, the estate of Pratchett permitted the use of the 'Vimes Boots' name by Jack Monroe in 2022 for a project to track the price of the cheapest staple foods^[1] to demonstrate the disproportionate impact of inflation and supermarket pricing practices on the poor. However, as of 2024, Monroe had not published the VBI.

Shortly after Monroe's announcement, Mike Hardie, head of inflation statistics at the ONS, wrote that "the average annual rate of inflation can conceal a lot," as personal inflation rates had experienced higher increases than the overall inflation rate.^[17] The ONS further detailed its plans to update the measure in January 2022.^[18] In response, Monroe said they are "delighted to be able to tell you that the ONS have just announced that they are going to be changing the way they collect and report on the cost of food prices and inflation to take into consideration a wider range of income levels and household circumstances."^[19]

The first empirical results using principles derived from Boots theory were published in a ONS report from October 2022: it documents the real change in lowest-priced staples between April 2021 and September 2022. The report concludes that "the lowest-priced items have increased in cost by around 17% over the 12 months to September 2022".^[20]

In June 2024, the National Bureau of Economic Research from USA published a working paper expanding on the ONS findings, showing that cheapflation, a term the authors coined, is a global phenomenon^[21]: "prices of cheaper goods increased at a faster rate than those of more expensive varieties of the same product"^[22], thus placing a higher financial burden on poor people.

• Bulk purchasing – Purchase of much larger quantities than usual, for a unit price that is lower than the usual
• Cost of poverty – Poor people often incur higher expenses due to lack of options
• Circular cumulative causation
• Cycle of poverty – Vicious cycle that reinforces poverty
• Debtor's prison – Prison for people unable to repay a debt
• Dishonoured cheque – Cheque that a bank declines to pay
• False economy – Economics concept
• Inferior good – Concept in economics
• Nickel and Dimed
• Overdraft – Payments from a bank account exceeding the balance
• Payday loan – Short-term unsecured loan
• Pay-to-stay (imprisonment) – The practice of charging prisoners money for their involuntary stay
• Poverty industry – Businesses that make most of their money from the poor

• vimesbootsindex.co.uk