Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the All Progressives Congress nominating Deputy Governor Nasir Yusuf Gawuna on 26 May while the New Nigeria Peoples Party nominated former commissioner Abba Kabir Yusuf on 6 June.[5] For the Peoples Democratic Party, two separate parallel primaries were held on 25 May with one primary nominating Mohammed Abacha—the son and bagman of former military dictatorSani Abacha—while the other primary picked former commissioner Sadiq Wali;[6][7][8] about a month after the primaries, INEC recognized Abacha as the legitimate nominee but switched recognition to Wali by July.[9][10] Recognition returned to Abacha in December due to the ruling of a Federal High Court, but returned to Wali due to a Court of Appeal judgment in February 2023.[11][12]
Electoral system
The Governor of Kano State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Background
Kano State is a highly populated northwestern state mainly inhabited by ethnic Hausas and Fulanis but with significant non-indigenous populations of Igbo, Yoruba, and other ethnicities. The state has a growing economy but is facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector, overcrowded urban areas, desertification, and relatively low education rates.
Politically, the state's 2019 elections were categorized as a reassertion of the APC's federal dominance after mass 2018 defections away from the party led by outgoing Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and his allies. The APC was mainly successful federally, unseating almost all PDP senators and house members to sweep most House of Representatives and all three senate seats as the state was easily won by APC presidential nominee Muhammadu Buhari with over 75% but still swung towards the PDP and had lower turnout. However, state level elections were much closer as Umar Ganduje needed a disputed supplementary election to barely beat the PDP's Abba Kabir Yusuf; the House of Assembly elections were also closer but the APC won a sizeable majority. During the 2019–2023 term, Kwankwaso's early 2022 party switch to the NNPP was followed by a swell in defections to the party with over a dozen House of Assembly members and several federal lawmakers defected from both the major parties to the NNPP, swiftly making it into the second largest party in Kano State.[13][14]
Ahead of Umar Ganduje's second term, his administration stated focuses included water resource management, education, healthcare, agricultural development, combating drug abuse, rural development, and security.[15] In terms of his performance, Umar Ganduje was praised for attempting to return out-of-school children to school, calling for restrictions on herding, and education policy.[16][17][18] However, he faced criticism for his feud with the then-Emir of KanoMuhammadu Sanusi II which led to the sacking and illegal forced exile of the emir, briefly banning people of different sexes from riding the same commercial tricycles, downplaying the COVID-19 pandemic, alleged anti-Christian sentiment in the state government and infringements on constitutionally-mandated secularism, further corruption, a series of questionable awards he received in an attempt to rebuild his public image, and nepotism.[19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27] Umar Ganduje also came over fire for his moves to silence journalists through attempting to interfere with media houses but most notably, when he threatened to "deal with" Jaafar Jaafar (the journalist who exposed videos of Umar Ganduje taking bribes during his first term) and eventually forced Jaafar into self-imposed exile.[28][29][30]
Primary elections
The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][31] According to some candidates and community leaders from the state's south, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Kano South Senatorial District to have the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Kano governors have come from either the Kano Central or Kano North senatorial districts.[32] However, no major party has yet closed their primaries to candidates from the central or northern regions.
All Progressives Congress
Analysts view the APC gubernatorial primary as a likely battle between the preexisting major factions within the Kano State APC, namely: the faction led by outgoing Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and the G-7 group, led by Kano Central Senator and former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau along with Kano North SenatorBarau Jibrin. Tensions between the factions reached a head in late 2021 when Umar Ganduje's faction held a parallel party congress and elected separate leadership to the G-7 bloc's congress;[33] courts first ruled that the results of the G-7 congress were legitimate before an appeal gave the legitimacy to Umar Ganduje's congress in February 2022.[34][35][36] In the wake of the ruling in favour of Umar Ganduje's faction, analysts stated that the G-7 would either have to hope that the Supreme Court ruled in their favour (it ruled against them on 6 May),[37] contest APC primaries under a hostile Ganduje-led Kano APC, or defect to other parties.[38] The party crisis is notably dangerous as violence arose with a massive clash in July 2021 between supporters of Jibrin and Murtala Sule Garo, a commissioner close to Umar Ganduje, injuring dozens while Jibrin's campaign office was attacked and burnt down in December 2021.[39][40] The intraparty violence then became deadly in March 2022 when four people were killed in clashes between supporters of Sule Garo and Kabiru Alhassan Rurum, another potential gubernatorial candidate.[41]
Other than the factional crisis, fears of candidate imposition arose after state First Lady Hafsat Ganduje endorsed Sule Garo at an event in August 2021.[42][43] Although the state government claimed she was recorded out of context, the video of the powerful first lady publicly backing a then-unannounced candidate nine months before the primary led to rumours that Governor Umar Ganduje himself was supporting Sule Garo as well. Sule Garo, who ransacked a collation centre in 2019 with Deputy Governor Nasir Yusuf Gawuna to force the election to inconclusiveness, is from Kano North like Umar Ganduje making his potential nomination angering for those supporting regional power rotation.[44] However, by May 2022, reports emerged that Umar Ganduje would endorse Gawuna for governor with Sule Garo as his running mate.[45][46] In reaction, House of Representatives member Kabiru Alhassan Rurum swiftly left the APC in protest of another non-southerner being poised to gain the party's nomination (Gawuna is from Kano Central).[47][48] To stave off further outcry, the state APC stated that while Umar Ganduje and other major politicians had backed Gawuna, the party would hold an open and fair primary.[49] Despite the statement, withdrawals continued as Jibrin opted to drop out and seek re-election to the Senate as A.A. Zaura also withdrew for a senatorial run.[50][51] On the other hand, Sha'aban Ibrahim Sharada and Inuwa Ibrahim Waya vowed to continue their campaigns.[52] Meanwhile, this occurred under the backdrop of more high-profile defections from the APC to the NNPP, largely (but not entirely) by politicians from Kano South who lamented their region's exclusion by the APC and by former G-7 supporters.[13]
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[53] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[54] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[55][56][57][58]
On the primary date, only Ibrahim Sharada contested against Gawuna in the indirect primary that ended with Gawuna emerging as the party nominee nearly unanimously. In his acceptance speech, Gawuna thanked the party leaders for their support and called for party members to unite.[5] Ibrahim Sharada rejected the results and claimed that he narrowly escaped an assassination plot at the primary venue.[59] He would go on to file a lawsuit against Gawuna in June, suing for the disqualification of Gawuna as a candidate.[60] By August, Ibrahim Sharada joined ADP to gain its nomination.[61]
Nominated
Nasir Yusuf Gawuna: Deputy Governor (2018–present), Commissioner for Agriculture and Natural Resources (2014–2018; 2019–2022), and Nasarawa Local Government Chairman (2003–2011)
Murtala Sule Garo: former Commissioner for Local Government and Community Development (2015–2022) and former Kabo Local Government Chairman (2014–2015)[66]
In early 2022, former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and many of his allies defected from the PDP to join the NNPP; while Kwankwaso is ineligible to run for a third term and is running for president, the PDP's 2019 gubernatorial nomineeAbba Kabir Yusuf prepared to run for governor again.[71] Some pundits claim that the NNPP has the potential to seriously contest against the major parties with the backing of Kwankwaso's Kwankwasiyya movement.[72]
The national NNPP announced its primary schedule on 12 April 2022, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦10 million with forms being sold from 10 April to 5 May.[73] The rest of the timetable was revised on 19 May; after the purchase and submission of forms, gubernatorial candidates are to be screened by a party committee on 28 May while the screening appeal process is slated for the next day. Ward congresses are set for 22 April to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process will advance to a primary set for 30 May, in concurrence with all other NNPP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result can be made the next day.[74] The primary date was again shifted, to 6 June.
On 18 and 19 May, reports emerged that the party had settled on Yusuf as its consensus nominee with Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo—who was Yusuf's PDP running mate in 2019—getting the deputy gubernatorial slot.[75][76] This reporting was confirmed on 6 June, the day of the primary, when Yusuf won unopposed.[77]
The years prior to the PDP primaries were beset by party infighting between two different party factions, one backed by former minister Aminu Wali while the other was supported by former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.[79][80] However, in early 2022, Kwankwaso and many of his allies defected from the PDP to join the NNPP.[81] As many members of Kwankwaso's Kwankwasiyya movement defected along with him, analysts state that the NNPP's rise has the potential to hurt the PDP in the general election.[72] The defection also lead Wali to cement his partial control of the state party but he was challenged by the state executive previously aligned with Kwankwaso. The state executive and some candidates—who feared that if Wali gained full power over the party, he would impose his son (former commissioner Sadiq Wali) as the gubernatorial nominee—argued with Wali's faction and the national party over ward congresses diving the party into further crisis ahead of the primary.[82]
On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[83] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[84][85]
On the primary date, two parallel primaries were held with Wali's grouping holding an indirect primary at the Sani Abacha Youth Center while the Sagagi faction held its primary at the state party headquarters. After both primaries were peacefully held, the Youth Center primary ended in a Sadiq Wali win while the direct primary resulted in a victory for Mohammed Abacha.[7][6] The PDP National Working Committee delayed the transmission of the certificate of return to one of the victors in early June before INEC recognized the Abacha-won Sagagi factional primary at the end of June.[86][87][9][88] However, in July, INEC listed Wali as the party's nominee;[10] Abacha immediately sued to have the decision reversed.[89] In December, a Federal High Court ruling ordered INEC to recognize Abacha as the nominee again;[11] Wali vowed to appeal the judgment. His appeal succeeded, with the Court of Appeal siding with his case and ordering INEC to return recognition to Wali on 10 February 2023.[12]
Yusuf Bello Dambatta: former Commissioner for Land and Physical Planning (2014–2015), former Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget (2011–2014), and former Commissioner for Finance (2011)
Muazu Magaji: former Gas Pipeline Project Delivery and Gas Industrialisation Committee Chairman (2020–2021) and former Commissioner of Works (2019–2020)[91]
After the primaries, pundits focused on the continued internal issues of the three major parties, namely: the dispute over the legitimate PDP nominee, aggrieved members of the APC and some of their defections, and unease in the rising NNPP. For the PDP, INEC first recognized Mohammed Abacha as the nominee in June 2022 but switched recognition to Sadiq Wali the next month;[9][10] Abacha promptly sued as pundits noted the unending state PDP crisis.[97] Although defections from the APC abated compared to earlier in 2022 and Ganduje reconciled with some of his former intra-party opponents, other aggrieved party members continued to leave including MHR Sha'aban Ibrahim Sharada—runner-up in the APC gubernatorial primary—who departed for the ADP where he tussled for the party's gubernatorial nomination.[98][99][100] Meanwhile, the newfound alliance between longtime rival former governors Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Ibrahim Shekarau in the NNPP quickly collapsed as Shekarau and his allies began publicly lamenting Kwankwaso's allegedly broken promises by early August.[101][102] Attempts by Kwankwaso to salvage the alliance failed and Shekarau defected to the PDP at a rally with PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar and other PDP figures on 29 August.[103] The defection led to a situation where each of the state's three most prominent political godfathers (Ganduje, Kwankwaso, and Shekarau) are all in three different parties. While the national PDP focused on Shekarau's ability to help Abubakar's performance in the state, it was also noted that Shekarau could boost the party's gubernatorial performance if the crisis was resolved; a Shekarau aide claimed that he would work on party reconciliation.[104][105]
In late October and early November, a new internal rift opened in the APC as the party's deputy gubernatorial nominee Murtala Sule Garo had a physical altercation with House of Representatives Majority Leader Alhassan Doguwa during a meeting at Gawuna's house. Pundits quickly noted that renewed feuding in the Kano APC could completely derail the party's prospects in the state.[106][107][108][109] Not only did both politicians publicly demand apologies, Doguwa accused Sule Garo of tacitly supporting PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar—who is also Sule Garo's father-in-law—before himself being accused of later assaulting a journalist by the Nigeria Union of Journalists' state chapter.[110][111] As the controversy developed, the first public poll of the race—conducted by NOI Polls and commissioned by the Anap Foundation—was released on 7 November with it showing a lead for Yusuf with Gawuna in second place and Wali in distant third place.[112] Later that month, Ganduje and other APC leaders claimed that they had reconciled Doguwa and Garo but analysts reiterated the harm to the party from crisis, especially when coupled with Ganduje's wider unpopularity due to renewed nepotism and the criticized imprisonment of TikTok creators that posted a comedy skit about Ganduje.[113][114][115][116]
In early December, focus shifted to electoral violence due to a series of clashes between APC and NNPP supporters. Both parties accused the other side of escalating tension, organizing attacks, and inciting violence.[117] Later that month, the PDP crisis returned to the forefront as a court ruling awarded the nomination back to Abacha;[11] Wali vowed to appeal the judgment.[118] In the new year, BBC Hausa organized a debate on 14 January 2023 and invited Abacha, Gawuna, Ibrahim Sharada, and Yusuf[a] in addition to PRP nominee Salihu Tanko Yakasai to participate. Held at the Dangote Business School of the Bayero University, the debate touched on topics ranging from education to security.[119] A few days later, seven candidates signed a peace accord at an event organised by the Kano Peace Committee in collaboration with the National Peace Committee, United Nations, and the Kukah Centre; notably, Gawuna was absent but represented by Sule Garo.[120]
Amid further fora and rallies, analysts reiterated that the gubernatorial election was effectively a proxy battle between Ganduje, Kwankwaso, and Shekarau.[121][122] One of the fora, a Media Trust debate on 4 February moderated by Daily Trust journalist Suleiman Suleiman, focused on several topics including agriculture, education, housing, social policy, transportation, unemployment, and water management.[123][124][125] Amidst the conclusion of campaigning in February, the PDP nomination dispute continued when a Court of Appeal returned the nomination to Wali.[12] Later that month, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Kano State voted for Kwankwaso (NNPP); Kwankwaso won with 58.6% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 30.4 and Atiku Abubakar (PDP) at 7.7%. Although the result was unsurprising as Kano is Kwankwaso's home state and projections had favored him, the totals led to increased attention on the gubernatorial race due to Kwankwaso's large margin of victory. Gubernatorial campaign analysis in the wake of the presidential election focused on the NNPP's momentum from its successful presidential and legislative campaigns in the state while noting Wali's slim chances and the power of APC incumbency.[126] Reports also examined the highly contentious final stretch of campaigning between the APC and NNPP, with tensions and fear of violence heightened in the wake of several deadly clashes on and around the federal election date.[127][128]
Election debates
2023 Kano State gubernatorial election debates
Date
Organisers
P Present[b] S Surrogate[c] NI Not invited A Absent invitee
On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[132] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[133]
28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
9 June 2022[h] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
16 March 2023[i] – Final day of the official campaign period
^AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[134]
^The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[135]
^"RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS JANUARY, 2021: Ganduje the lone voice of reason". Ripples Nigeria. 24 February 2021. Retrieved 9 April 2022. At a time the Nigerian nation is deeply divided on the issue of herdsmen crisis...Governor Ganduje, unexpectedly took an unpopular stand, calling for a ban on the movement of herdsmen and their cows from the Northern part of the country to the Middle Belt and the Southern part of the country...We acknowledge that Ganduje, to demonstrate that what he said is actually the solution, has gone ahead to create a better alternative for the herdsmen and their cattle with the establishment of a cattle colony in Samsosua forest at the state's border with Katsina.
^"RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, DECEMBER 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. 2 January 2020. Retrieved 9 April 2022. Ganduje, made headlines days back for banning people of the opposite sex from entering the same tricycle in the state...doubtful that the new order is what the people of Kano State need most at the moment. The state government, however, within a short time of proposing the law, announced its suspension. This signifies that it was obviously not a well thought-out initiative, and that stakeholders were not consulted, nor opinion of citizens sought before the law was put in place.
^"RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, APRIL 2020: Best, not good enough; COVID-19 exposes incompetence in high places". Ripples Nigeria. 5 May 2020. Retrieved 9 April 2022. The lack of willingness of the Kano State Government to admit that there is crisis may have been partly responsible for the notorious position currently occupied by the state in the COVID-19 pandemic chart. Ganduje had strenuously tried to downplay the cause of the spike in deaths in the state. His actions were akin to living in a fool's paradise.
^Ajaja, Tunde; Ede, Raphael; Odogwu, Ted; Odey, Patrick; Tyopuusu, Justin; Oyelude, Olaide; Ochei, Matthew; Naku, Dennis; Wakaso, Aisha; Nwakanma, Sunday; Nnachi, Edward; Abraham, James (23 April 2022). "2023: Ganduje, Okowa, Ikpeazu, Ortom, Wike others in succession crisis". The Punch. Retrieved 23 April 2022. Ganduje is from Kano North, while former governors Rabiu Kwankwaso and Ibrahim Shekarau are from Kano Central. Many aspirants are, therefore, insisting that it's the turn of the South to produce the next governor, but Garo, who is also from Kano North, is said to be the governor's choice. Many stakeholders are said to be uncomfortable with Ganduje's choice.
^Omogbolagun, Tope. "NNPP chair welcomes Shekarau, others, shifts Senate, gov primaries". The Punch. Retrieved 20 May 2022. "For governorship, the screening will hold, Saturday, May, 28th, 2022; the appeals will hold on Sunday May, 29th, 2022; the primaries; Monday, May, 30th, 2022 and appeals, May 31st, 2022."
