2023–2024 El Niño event

2023–2024 El Niño event
Sea surface anomalies across the world in July 2023 during the 2023–2024 El Niño event.
Meteorological history
FormedJune 2023
DissipatedMay 2024
Overall effects
Damage$75 billion
Areas affectedThe Pacific Ocean and surrounding areas

The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the globe. The onset was declared on 4 July 2023 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)[1][2][3][4] It was estimated that the most significant meteorological effects would occur between November 2023 and April 2024[5] and their characteristics would be determined depending on each territory on the planet,[6] within which droughts, heavy rains, wildfires, heat waves, tropical cyclones, flooding and changes in wind patterns occurred.[1][7][8] These events have already negatively affected the economic activities of agriculture and fishing, generating shortages and rising prices of food—especially rice, palm oil, sugar cane, soybeans and corn—and, therefore, an increase in food insecurity of the most vulnerable populations.

Background

The 2023-2024 El Niño event was rated "strong", and contributed to a record-breaking global average surface temperature for the July 2023 to June 2024 time period.

El Niño is a natural climate event caused by the Southern Oscillation, popularly known as El Niño or also in meteorological circles as El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO,[6] through which global warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean results in the development of unusually warm waters between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. This phenomenon significantly affects the global average surface temperature of the planet. A large El Niño event can raise it by as much as a few tenths of a degree Celsius.[9]

Meteorological progression

During an El Niño event, the east–west trade winds die, generating warmer air temperatures in the eastern and central parts of the tropical Pacific.[10] Warmer temperatures lead to warming ocean surface temperatures, leading to heavier rainfall and flooding in the eastern Pacific.[11][12] Since there are no trade winds, the necessary rains do not form in the western Pacific, generating droughts in Asia and Oceania.[8] The phenomenon has a recurrence of between 2 and 7 years, and can last from 9 to 12 months.[7][13]

The combination of El Niño and above-normal temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) tends to favor increased hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific.[14]

At the beginning of the year, it was considered that the climatic conditions of the first quarter of 2023 pointed to the occurrence of a strong El Niño event, similar to those that occurred in 1982, 1997, and 2015.[15][16] In mid-January 2023, weather forecasts regarding the probable occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon in 2023 and 2024 were published in various media.[17][18][19] Given that Earth's average temperature has already increased by 1.2 °C since pre-industrial times, a large enough El Niño event in 2023-2024 could even push the planet, temporarily, into warming greater than 1.5 °C.[20][21][22][2]

Timeline

June 2023

On June 8, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States confirmed the presence of El Niño.

During the month of June 2023 the global surface air temperature was warmer than the corresponding month of any previous year.

July 2023

July 4 was declared the start date of the 2023-2024 El Niño event by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

On July 20, the government of India – the main rice exporter in the world – banned the export of non-basmati rice, in order to seek to contain the rise in prices at the domestic level and guarantee its availability in the domestic market in the face of the crisis, geopolitics, the climate crisis and the El Niño event.

During the month of July 2023 the global surface air temperature was warmer than the corresponding month of any previous year.

August 2023

September 2023

October 2023

November 2023

December 2023

January 2024

February 2024

March 2024

By early March 2024, pockets of below average Sea Surface Temperature SST Anomalies pierced the surface in the equatorial East Pacific, a clear sign that the El Niño event was in full retreat.[23]

Several severe thunderstorms bringing high winds and pea-sized hail hit Los Angeles, California, causing strong flooding in streets.[24]

In recent report, data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service showed that March 2024 was the warmest March on record around the globe. It was 1.68°C (3.02°F) warmer than pre-industrial times.[25][26]

April 2024

Effects on tropical cyclone activity

Further information: Tropical cyclones in 2023

Compared to previously strong El Niño events like 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2014–16, tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic was not suppressed much by the strong El Niño due to record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.[27][28] The 2023 season went on to become the fourth most active Atlantic Hurricane season on record tied with 1933, and set an all-time record high number of storms for an El Niño year.[29] North Pacific tropical cyclone activity was more mixed. The North East Pacific was above average in terms of hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE, typical of previously strong El Niño event years, despite an exceptionally late start.[30][31][32] The North West Pacific on the other hand observed well below average activity, mostly due to a consistently negative PDO environment, which suppressed the formation of a lot of tropical storms.[33] While the activities in the North Pacific basins were a mixed bag, both basins proved to be extremely destructive in 2023, with Typhoon Doksuri in the North West Pacific and Hurricane Otis in the North East Pacific both causing more than $10 billion in damages.[34][35]

Impact

North America

South America

Further information: 2023–2024 South American drought and 2024 Brazil wildfires
Temperature anomaly in Brazil in 2023 (from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology).

World Meteorological Organization analyses indicated extreme heat and heatwave effects in central South America from August to December. Temperatures in parts of central Brazil exceeded 41 °C in August although that month marks the middle of the winter in the southern hemisphere.[36]

Although droughts are common in the Amazon during El Niño events, studies indicate that global warming likely played a bigger role than the 2023-2024 El Niño event in the 2023 Amazon's record drought.[37]

The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods in May of that year were caused by historical heavy rains and storms in the southern Brazilian state. Those events were considered by climatologists to had been intensified by the effects of climate change and the 2023–2024 El Niño event.[38] [39] [40] The 2023 Rio Grande do Sul floods had already plagued the state in the month of September prior, a few months into the same El Niño event.

Asia

Further information: 2024 Southeast Asia heat wave

In April 2024, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned of heatwave conditions for 10 to 20 days in several parts of the country. The IMD said that the conditions would eventually subside with the onset of the neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the monsoon in June.[41]

On July 20, the Indian government banned the export of non-basmati rice, in order to seek to contain the rise in prices domestically and guarantee its availability in the domestic market due to the geopolitical scenario—especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine. , the effect of El Niño and the extreme weather conditions generated by the climate crisis in other rice-producing countries. This decision would affect more than 42 countries importing rice from India, especially Bangladesh, Nepal, Benin, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Togo and Guinea. In 2022, India exported 10.3 million tons of non-basmati white rice, which represents a quarter of the total sales of the world's leading exporter of this grain.

During the month of August 2023, the absence of rain has been significant in general in the country, taking into account that August is the second rainiest of the year, after July, and during the monsoon. August 2023 is estimated to be the driest since meteorological parameters began to be recorded in 1901. In India, the impacts of El Niño develop in such a way that precipitation is suppressed in almost the entire country, except in the territories located in the east and northeast.

Oceania

Oceania has been affected since the beginning of the year by the absence of east–west trade winds and the increase in the temperature of the waters of the eastern Pacific. Since there are no trade winds, the necessary rains do not form in the western Pacific, generating droughts in Asia and Oceania.

Australia

Further information: 2023–24 Australian bushfire season

The months of May, July and August have been months of little rain. The long-term forecast is that from November to December 2023 there will be conditions with higher temperatures and drier weather. A greater number of forest fires are expected for spring than in recent years in the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales, as well as regions of Victoria and South Australia.

Africa

El Niño contributed to droughts in southern Africa in 2024.[42] Zambia, Malawi and Zimbabwe declared a state of disaster.[43]

The 2024 drought in Zambia was believed to be the worst to hit the country in at least two decades. In February 2024, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema said that almost half of the country’s "planted area" had been "destroyed".[44][45]

El Niño causes severe flooding in East Africa, displacing millions of people.[46]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "El Niño 2023: aumento de la temperatura trae un clima extremo y amenaza vidas". Salud con lupa (in Spanish). 2023-07-06. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
  2. ^ a b BBVA. "Hay riesgo de que El Niño regrese en 2023: ¿Qué significa esto para el clima del planeta?". BBVA NOTICIAS (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-09-04.
  3. ^ Henson, Bob (2023-06-09). "NOAA makes it official: El Niño is here » Yale Climate Connections". Yale Climate Connections. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
  4. ^ "Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion". www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
  5. ^ O’Shea, Claire (2023-08-14). "Julio de 2023 fue el mes más caluroso registrado". NASA. Retrieved 2023-09-06.
  6. ^ a b "How will El Niño affect Europe's weather this winter?". euronews. 2023-09-03. Retrieved 2023-09-06.
  7. ^ a b "¡Llegó El Niño! Se declaró el comienzo del fenómeno en Argentina: ¿qué impactos tiene en el clima? | Servicio Meteorologico Nacional". www.smn.gob.ar. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
  8. ^ a b "An El Niño could be declared as early as next week: This is what it looks like when it forms". ABC News. 2023-09-06. Retrieved 2023-09-13.
  9. ^ "La posible vuelta del fenómeno El Niño amenaza con batir récords de temperaturas mundiales | Noticias ONU". news.un.org (in Spanish). 2023-03-01. Retrieved 2023-04-07.
  10. ^ Igini, Martina (2023-01-18). "El Niño Will Push Global Temperatures 'Off the Chart' in 2023, Scientists Warn". Earth.Org. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
  11. ^ Dareen, Seher (2023-03-09). "US forecaster says El Nino could arrive by summer 2023". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
  12. ^ "Ciclón Yaku y el cambio climático". Portal sobre gestión de inundaciones (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-03-21.
  13. ^ Álvarez, Juan Pablo (2023-07-04). "Fenómeno de El Niño 2023 a nivel global: ¿dónde habrá más calor, lluvia y sequías?". Bloomberg Línea (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-09-04.
  14. ^ "Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlook". www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
  15. ^ GrupoRPP (21 March 2023). "¿Las condiciones están dadas para tener un Fenómeno El Niño grave el 2024?". RPP (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-04-07.
  16. ^ ""Súper El Niño", la peligrosa versión del fenómeno climático que se hace cada vez más frecuente en el Pacífico". BBC News Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-04-07.
  17. ^ Carrington, Damian (2023-01-16). "Warning of unprecedented heatwaves as El Niño set to return in 2023". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
  18. ^ "El Nino set to return in 2023 after three years: What will be its impact". Hindustan Times. 2023-01-18. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
  19. ^ "Modelling El Niño | ICTP". www.ictp.it. Retrieved 2023-09-06.
  20. ^ Dance, Scott (2023-06-08). "El Niño is back, and is poised to turbocharge extreme weather". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2023-09-04.
  21. ^ "How does climate change affect El Nino and La Nina cycles? – DW – 01/27/2023". dw.com. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
  22. ^ "How El Niño May Test the Limits of Our Climate Knowledge". Time. 2023-03-17. Retrieved 2023-03-21.
  23. ^ "March 2024 ENSO update: award season | NOAA Climate.gov". www.climate.gov. March 14, 2024.
  24. ^ "Sudden thunderstorm drops heavy rain and hail across Los Angeles County". 8 March 2024.
  25. ^ "Climate change: 'Uncharted territory' fears after record hot March". 2024-04-09. Retrieved 2024-04-09.
  26. ^ "Copernicus: March 2024 is the tenth month in a row to be the hottest on record | Copernicus". climate.copernicus.eu. Retrieved 2024-04-09.
  27. ^ O'Leary, Maureen (November 28, 2023). "2023 Atlantic hurricane season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on November 29, 2023. Retrieved November 28, 2023.
  28. ^ Miller, Kimberly (November 22, 2023). "El Niño battled warm ocean temperatures during the above average 2023 hurricane season". West Palm Beach, Florida: The Palm Beach Post. Archived from the original on November 27, 2023. Retrieved November 28, 2023.
  29. ^ Henson, Bob; Masters, Jeff (November 30, 2023). "The unusual 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ends". New Haven, Connecticut: Yale Climate Connections. Archived from the original on November 30, 2023. Retrieved November 30, 2023.
  30. ^ Donegan, Brian (June 26, 2023). "Eastern Pacific could spawn first 2 tropical storms this week after unusually quiet start to hurricane season". FOX Weather. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  31. ^ "Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  32. ^ Wulfeck, Andrew; Yablonski, Steven; Sistek, Scott (November 26, 2023). "Tropical Storm Ramon fizzles in what could be hurricane season's curtain call". FOX Weather. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
  33. ^ "Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)". www.ncei.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2024-03-05.
  34. ^ SitRep No. 15 for the Combined Effects of Southwest Monsoon and TC EGAY (2023) (Report). National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. July 28, 2023. Retrieved July 28, 2023.[permanent dead link‍]
  35. ^ Merida, Troy (November 17, 2023). "Frustration grows in search for Acapulco sailors lost in hurricane". Reuters. Archived from the original on November 19, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  36. ^ World Meteorological Organization (2024-05-08). "El Niño and climate change impacts slam Latin America and Caribbean in 2023". United Nations. Press Release. Retrieved 2024-05-18.
  37. ^ Lindsey, Rebecca (2024-02-07). "Preliminary analysis says global warming more to blame than El Niño for Amazon's ongoing record drought". No. 2024-02-07. Climate.gov. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2024-05-21.
  38. ^ Fabal, Carlos (2024-05-04). "Floods In Southern Brazil Kill 55, Force 70,000 From Homes". Barron's. AFP News. Retrieved 2024-05-18.
  39. ^ Sinimbú, Fabíola (2024-05-13). "Meteorologista Carlos Nobre explica por que a catástrofe no RS é um evento climático extremo". No. 2024-05-13. Jornal do Brasil. Jornal do Brasil. Retrieved 2024-05-21.
  40. ^ Carrasco, Jorge C. (2024-05-10). "Brazil is reeling from catastrophic floods. What went wrong – and what does the future hold?". No. 2024-05-10. The Guardian. The Guardian. Retrieved 2024-05-21.
  41. ^ "IMD warns of heatwave spells lasting 10-20 days in April-June". The Indian Express. 2024-04-01. Retrieved 2024-04-09.
  42. ^ "Nearly 68 million people reeling from drought in Southern Africa: Official". Al Jazeera. 17 August 2024.
  43. ^ "How El Nino contributes to drought in Africa". Deutsche Welle. 15 April 2024.
  44. ^ "Zambia declares national disaster after drought devastates agriculture". Al Jazeera. 29 February 2024.
  45. ^ "Zambia: President Hichilema Declares Drought As A National Disaster and Emergency". 1 March 2024.
  46. ^ "El Nino climate pattern intensifies in East Africa". Deutsche Welle. 26 April 2024.

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