Following major losses during the 2018 Taiwanese local elections, Tsai Ing-wen resigned from her party's chairmanship and was challenged in the primary contest by former Premier Lai Ching-te, himself a former Tsai appointee. The Kuomintang also ran a competitive primary, which saw Han Kuo-yu, initially reluctant to run, defeat former presidential candidate and New Taipei mayor Eric Chu, and Foxconn chief executive Terry Gou.
Both domestic issues and Cross-Strait relations featured in the campaign, with Han attacking Tsai for her perceived failures in labour reform, economic management, and dealing with corruption of her aides. However, Tsai's strong response to Beijing's increasing pressures on Taiwan to accede to a unification agreement, amid the backdrop of the intensely followed Hong Kong anti-extradition protests, proved crucial in her recapturing broad support.
The elections had a turnout of 74.9%, the highest among nationwide elections since 2008. Tsai won a record 8.17 million votes, representing 57.1% of the popular vote, the highest vote share won by a DPP candidate in presidential elections.[3] The DPP received a higher share of the vote in major metropolitan areas, reversing the KMT's fortunes in Kaohsiung and environs, while the Kuomintang retained strength in limited eastern regions and off-island constituencies. Tsai and Lai were inaugurated on 20 May 2020.
Under applicable legislation, any party which received more than five per cent of the total vote share in the latest election in any level were eligible to contest the election. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), New Power Party (NPP) and People First Party (PFP) were eligible, though in the end only three major-party candidates were certified: incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party, Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu of Kuomintang, and perennial veteran candidate James Soong of the People First Party. Vice President Chen Chien-jen, Tsai's running mate in 2016, was eligible for re-election but chose not to contest.[4]
Background
Tsai Ing-wen suffered a stinging defeat during the 2018 Taiwanese local elections due to widespread discontentment over numerous domestic policy issues, including public pension reform, same-sex marriage, pollution, and labour reform. In the lead up to the election, her staffers were found to have been implicated in a tobacco smuggling ring, which also allegedly involved the top management of flag carrier China Airlines and National Security Bureau. Dogged by scandal and having lost on major referendums questions, Tsai's clout continued to deteriorate both in her own party and more broadly.[5]
The major inflection of the campaign came amid the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests, an event that was triggered with the murder of Poon Hiu-wing in Taiwan. As the protests became heated over the later half of 2019, Tsai began to portray the situation in Hong Kong as a direct result of an encroachment of the territory's autonomy from Beijing. In January 2019, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, had announced an open letter to Taiwan proposing a one country, two systems formula for eventual unification. Additionally, over the course of 2019, several small nations that previously had diplomatic ties to Taiwan, including Panama, Kiribati, and Solomon Islands, broke off relations in favour of China. Tsai issued pronouncements that Taiwan will "never accept one country, two systems" and that "today's Hong Kong could be tomorrow's Taiwan".[6]
Tsai reconciled with diverse elements in her party in signing up Lai to be her running mate. Kuomintang, after fits and starts over procedural disputes, flirted with a high-profile nomination of Foxconn chief Terry Gou. The party ultimately nominated firebrand Han Kuo-yu, who had in 2018 successfully run an insurgent mayoral campaign in the DPP stronghold of Kaohsiung. However, his combative, eccentric antics and participation in the presidential election soon after his taking on the post in Kaohsiung earned him scorn from detractors.[7][8] Additionally, Tsai made hay with Han's perceived friendliness with Beijing, citing his early 2019 visit to mainland China where he met with multiple high-level Communist Party officials, and his continued recognition of the 1992 Consensus, which Tsai had disavowed.[6] Han eventually spoke out against one country, two systems, remarking that it will never happen if he was president unless it was "over my dead body." Nonetheless, Tsai's political advantage on the issue had been solidified.[9]
In November 2019, Chinese defector (William) Wang Liqiang claimed that Beijing used internet operatives to tilt elections in favor of the KMT and Han Kuo-yu in particular, similar to how the Russians had interfered with U.S. elections.[10] It became an international scandal after being reported by leading Australian news outlets 60 Minutes, The Age, and TheSydney Morning Herald, dominating the newscycle in Taiwan.[11][12] Taiwanese authorities subsequently detained two executives, alleged by Wang to be spies, of a Hong Kong company.[13][14] In late December, the KMT was mired deeper by the scandal after Australian intelligence revealed that KMT officials had tried to bribe and threaten Wang into recanting his testimony and framing the DPP as the mastermind behind the entire incident. KMT spokesperson denied the report, and both parties traded blames.[11][15]
Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen's re-election chances were dealt a blow after the Democratic Progressive Party's devastating defeat in the 2018 local elections, where the DPP lost seven of the 13 cities and counties it previously held. The DPP’s share of the vote also fell from 56 to 39 per cent since the 2016 presidential election.[16] Tsai resigned as the party chairwoman after the defeat.[17] However, Tsai kept trailing behind in the polls as the surveys found most Taiwanese would not support Tsai in the 2020 election but would support PremierLai Ching-te, who also resigned from the premiership for the electoral defeat in January 2019.[18]
On 19 February 2019, Tsai Ing-wen told CNN in an interview she will run for re-election, despite facing calls from senior members of her own party to not seek re-election. Before her announcement, Tsai had received a bump in the polls after she gave a robust speech saying that her people would never relinquish their democratic freedoms, as a response to the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist PartyXi Jinping's speech in January describing Taiwan's unification with the mainland as "inevitable".[19]
On 18 March, Lai Ching-te registered to run in the party's presidential primary, saying that he could shoulder the responsibility of leading Taiwan in defending itself from being annexed by China.[20] This is the first time in history where a serious primary challenge has been mounted against a sitting president.[21]
Tsai was duly nominated by the DPP on 19 June 2019.[22][23] She and Lai Ching-te formed the DPP presidential ticket on 17 November 2019.[24]
The party has decided to hold its primary based on a 70-30 weighing of public polls and party member votes, although it has not ruled out the possibility of drafting the strongest candidate in an all-out effort to win back power, which was seen to be reserved for the party's best performing candidate in the polls, Mayor of KaohsiungHan Kuo-yu.[26] Several KMT heavyweights such as party chairman Wu Den-yih and even former President Ma Ying-jeou were believed to also be interested in running for the party's presidential nomination.[28] Wu Den-yih’s withdrew his proposal to only allow KMT members to decide the party’s presidential candidate which drew criticism, with some questioning whether he aimed to rig the game for himself, before he declined to run on 11 April.[29]
On 17 April, founder and chairman of FoxconnTerry Gou announced his presidential bid by joining the KMT presidential primary.[30] He also stated that he would not accept to be drafted to run. Han, Gou's potential rival, announced on 23 April that he was "willing to take responsibility" for the development of Taiwan but was "unable" to participate in the party's primary in its current form. He expressed his disapproval of the "closed-door negotiations" within the party and called for reform.[31] In order to settle the demand from Han's supporters, the party adopted a resolution to put in place special guidelines to include all its presidential hopefuls, including Han, in its primary on the next day, and also switch the primary method from 70-30 weighing of public polls and party member votes to fully being determined by public polls.[32]
On 15 July, Han Kuo-yu was announced to have won the party's poll in a press conference by KMT Vice Chairman Tseng Yung-chuan.[33] On 11 November, independent Chang San-cheng joined Kuomintang presidential ticket as the vice presidential candidate.[34] Kuomintang ticket completed registration for the election on 18 November 2019.[35][36]
On 13 November 2019, People First Party chairperson James Soong announced his fourth bid for president, along with his running mate, independent and former United Communications Group chairwoman Sandra Yu.[44]
Several Taiwanese websites published Chinese propaganda about Tsai and Han. False information was circulated on Facebook and YouTube that appeared to have come from China.[53][51] Other disinformation efforts seemed to be designed to create voter apathy or promote Han.[51] Much of the activity was not directed by Beijing but came from scattered groups of Chinese netizens.[53]
Wang Liqiang, a self-confessed Chinese spy who defected to Australia, alleged that he had helped with funneling 20 million yuan in campaign donations from China to Han's campaign. Han denied the allegation.[54][51]
China's efforts to influence the election were exposed by Taiwanese and foreign media outlets.[51] Thousands protested on the streets against what they feared to be "red media".[55][56][51] Prior to the election, Tsai highlighted China's meddling in Hong Kong and Taiwan, saying, "Young people in Hong Kong have used their lives and blood and tears to show us that 'one country, two systems' is not feasible."[57][51]
Debates
A single television debate was held on 29 December 2019 at 2 PM local time. Most of the themes discussed had already been elaborated upon by the candidates during the policy presentations in the weeks immediately prior to the debate. As usual, Cross-Strait relations was a focal point of conversation; the candidates also touched upon military spending, nuclear energy, labour relations, and special interests. Tsai reiterated her commitment to the cross-strait status quo, without "unnecessary provocations" or changes in policy. Han said he would protect the "sovereignty of the Republic of China". James Soong said that Taiwan has inherited Chinese culture and tradition but insists that any changes to the island's political status needed to be achieved via "democratic means."[58]
Han used the debate to paint Tsai variously as being at the mercy of the "New Tide" ultra-progressive wing of her own party, a dictatorial and autocratic figure as president, a leader unable to effectively control her allegedly corrupt subordinates, and a flip-flopper on the issue of cross-strait relations. Tsai said that Han did not have concrete policies of his own and focused undue attention on attacks against her. Tsai acknowledged the DPP's poor performance in the local elections of 2018 but reiterated her position that she was the best candidate to protect against perceived encroachment of sovereignty from the PRC; she repeatedly invoked One Country, Two Systems, suggesting that Han would accede to China's position on the issue, and in her closing remarks said "do not let Taiwan be the next Hong Kong". Tsai and Han each accused the other of using internet trolls, so-called "cyber armies", to smear the other. While Tsai accused Han of being prejudiced towards marginalized groups, Han tried to brand Tsai as an out-of-touch elitist and himself an everyman who will happily go "have street food" with the common folk as president. James Soong attempted to strike a middle ground, repeating his support for the status quo in cross-strait relations, calling for mutual understanding with the mainland, and denying his own family's connections to mainland business interests.[58]
The debate was noted for some bizarre exchanges involving Han Kuo-yu, who became especially animated on multiple occasions, raising his voice and using wild hand gestures, most notably yelling the phrase “Long live theRepublic of China!” three times, in addition to employing props to complement his attacks on Tsai.[59] In response to questions from Apple Daily on the relationship between Han and a woman he allegedly had an extramarital affair with, Han called the outlet a "tabloid without the slightest standards," and responded "why don't you also ask how many girlfriends I had in college [...] and when I lost my virginity?" Han used a cross-examination segment to ask the other candidates whether they believed in God, asserted his own Buddhist faith, and said "we will all face judgment one day", without meaningful follow-up. Notably, Han also criticized former KMT president Ma Ying-jeou, saying he was "too soft".[60][58]
Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen won the 2020 Taiwanese presidential election with her Democratic Progressive Party and was re-elected to a second term with a historic record of 8.17 million votes (57.1 per cent),[61] the highest vote share won by a DPP candidate. Rival candidate Han Kuo-yu of the Kuomintang (KMT) was the runner up with 5.52 million votes (38.6 per cent). Despite defeat, the KMT saw a recovery in vote share from 2016, noticeably in traditionally KMT-leaning areas including Hsinchu County, Miaoli, Nantou, Hualien, and Taitung. People First Party's candidate James Soong came third and received 600,000 votes (4.26 per cent).[62] Turnout for the election was 74.9%, the highest among nationwide elections since 2008.[63]
At an election rally after the results were announced, Tsai stated, "Democratic Taiwan and our democratically elected government will not concede to threats and intimidation. The results of this election have made that answer crystal clear."[64]
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