2018 Latvian parliamentary election

2018 Latvian parliamentary election
Latvia
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All 100 seats in the Saeima
51 seats needed for a majority
Turnout54.58%
Party Leader Vote % Seats +/–
Harmony Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis 19.92 23 −1
KPV LV Aldis Gobzems 14.33 16 New
JKP Jānis Bordāns 13.59 16 +16
AP! Artis Pabriks 12.04 13 +13
NA Roberts Zīle 11.01 13 −4
ZZS Māris Kučinskis 9.91 11 −10
JV Krišjānis Kariņš 6.69 8 −15
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Distribution of seats by constituency
Prime Minister before Prime Minister after
Māris Kučinskis
ZZS		 Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš
JV

Parliamentary elections were held in Latvia on 6 October 2018.[1][2] Following the elections, a coalition government was formed by Who owns the state?, the New Conservative Party, Development/For!, the National Alliance and New Unity. Despite being from the smallest elected party, Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš of New Unity was chosen as prime minister.

Background

The 2014 elections saw Social Democratic Party "Harmony" emerge as the largest party. Although the largest party, Harmony has not participated in the government. A coalition was formed by Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers and the National Alliance with Laimdota Straujuma as prime minister.[3] On 7 December 2015 she resigned after increasing tensions within the ruling coalition.[4][5] Following her resignation and several scandals around the Unity leader Solvita Āboltiņa, opinion polls showed a rapid decrease of support for Unity. On 13 January 2016 Māris Kučinskis of the Union of Greens and Farmers was nominated to be the next prime minister by President Raimonds Vējonis.[6] His government was approved by the Saeima on 11 February.

Electoral system

The 100 members of the Saeima are elected by open list proportional representation from five multi-member constituencies (Kurzeme, Latgale, Riga (in which overseas votes are counted), Vidzeme and Zemgale) between 13 and 32 seats in size. Seats are allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method with a national electoral threshold of 5%.[7]

Electoral alliances

The Movement For!, Latvian Development and Growth parties contested the election as the Development/For! alliance, formed on 20 April 2018.[8]

The Social Democratic Workers' Party, the Christian Democratic Union and Proud to Serve Our Latvia [lv] contested the election as the SKG Alliance electoral list,[9] the memorandum of which was signed by the leaders of the parties on 28 March 2018.[10][11]

The long-standing alliance of the Latvian Farmers' Union and the Green Party (in cooperation with the regional For Latvia and Ventspils and Liepāja Party) continued.

Unity formed an association in April 2018 with several regional parties under the New Unity alliance. The involved parties are the Kuldīga County Party, For Valmiera and Vidzeme and For Tukums City and County [lv] parties, joined by the Jēkabpils Regional Party.[12][13] The Latgale Party, after a period of consideration,[14] joined the alliance in July,[15] although its Daugavpils chapter allied itself with The Progressives.[16] The Progressives and Movement For! declined invitations to join the list.[17]

Disqualifications

The Central Election Commission of Latvia used its powers to remove eight candidates from submitted lists. It did so after receiving notification from the Interior Ministry that the individuals in question were disqualified from election to the Saeima under the country's election law.[18] The eight candidates were Aivars Zablockis and Nikolajs Žeļezņakovs (Eurosceptic Action Party), Zigfrīds Laicāns and Valdis Taupmanis (For Alternative), Edgars Krūmiņš (Latvian Association of Regions), Katrīna Brandala (The Progressives), Aivars Silinieks (Latvian Centrist Party) and Tatjana Ždanoka (Latvian Russian Union).[19] Ždanoka has been barred in the past as Latvian courts have found that she was a member of the Communist Party of Latvia after 31 January 1991, making her ineligible. The Election Commission additionally sought information from the Security Police and the Constitution Protection Bureau to confirm her ineligibility.[20]

Prime Minister candidates

№ Party Candidate
1 Union of Greens and Farmers Māris Kučinskis
2 New Conservative Party Jānis Bordāns[21]
3 New Unity Krišjānis Kariņš[22]
4 KPV LV Aldis Gobzems[23]
5 Latvian Association of Regions Edvards Smiltēns[24]
6 National Alliance Roberts Zīle[25]
7 Harmony Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis[26]
8 Russian Union Andrejs Mamikins[27]
9 The Progressives Roberts Putnis [lv][28]
10 Development/For! Artis Pabriks[29]

Leading candidate by constituency

№ Party Leader
Rīga Vidzeme Latgale Kurzeme Zemgale
1 Union of Greens and Farmers[30] Dana Reizniece-Ozola Māris Kučinskis Jānis Dūklavs Gundars Daudze Augusts Brigmanis [lv]
2 Harmony[31] Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis Evija Papule [lv] Jānis Krišāns [lv] Anrijs Matīss Ivars Zariņš
3 National Alliance[32] Dace Melbārde Raivis Dzintars Edmunds Teirumnieks [lv] Ilze Indriksone Edvīns Šnore
4 New Unity Edgars Rinkēvičs Inese Lībiņa-Egnere Aldis Adamovičs [lv] Arvils Ašeradens Jānis Reirs
5 Russian Union Andrejs Mamikins Andris Tolmačovs Jevgēņija Krjukova Elita Kosaka Ludmila Ušakova
6 Latvian Association of Regions Ieva Brante [lv] Edvards Smiltēns Juris Viļums Nellija Kleinberga Inga Bite
7 Progressives[33] Antoņina Ņenaševa Inga Liepa-Meiere Agnese Logina Dace Kavasa Līga Rasnača
8 Development/For! Daniels Pavļuts Artis Pabriks Mārtiņš Bondars Juris Pūce Ilze Viņķele
9 New Conservatives[34] Juta Strīķe [lv] Jānis Bordāns Ilga Šuplinska Juris Jurašs Krišjānis Feldmanis
10 KPV LV Artuss Kaimiņš Linda Liepiņa Roberts Spručs Atis Zakatistovs Kaspars Ģirģens
11 Latvian Nationalists [lv] Andris Rubins [lv] Alfrēds Buls Vladislavs Bautris Silvestrs Rubins Kārlis Krūmiņš
12 For Latvia from the Heart Inguna Sudraba Gints Gābers Jānis Valtervitenheims Juris Jaunzems Iveta Čivčiša
13 Action Party Igors Meļņikovs [lv] Jurijs Vasiļjevs Tamāra Meļņikova Andris Perjans Jeļena Pičoha
14 For Alternative Einārs Graudiņš Juris Žuravļovs Jānis Kuzins Igors Glazunovs Artūrs Malta
15 Latvian Centrist Party Andžejs Ždanovičs Vazgens Sorokins Georgijs Sokolovskis Dainis Grabovskis Edvīns Puķe
16 SKG Alliance (LSDSP/KDS/GKL [lv]) Armands Agrums Jānis Dinevičs Daiga Ceipiniece Arvīds Kinstlers Valdis Šakars

Other parties

  • United for Latvia – on 17 May 2018 party leader Inese Muhamberga announced that the party will not run in the elections.[35]
  • Latvian Socialist Party – has not submitted a separate electoral list, instead urging "Latvian workers" to "vote politically bankrupt politicians out of office".[36] Its alliance with Harmony was dissolved in 2014, although some of its members or supporters have continued to run as candidates from Harmony.

Opinion polls

Polling firm Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample Size SDPS JV ZZS NA LRA NSL LKS VL LA JKP GKL [lv] KPV LV Par! PRO Won't vote Don't know Other Lead
FACTUM 24 – 30 September 2018 2,500 21 9 11 12 3 1 (n/a) (Par) 15 (SKG) 12 13 3 1 6
Norstat September 2018 12.7 6.1 10.7 6 1.4 1.3 0.8 (n/a) (Par) 7.7 (SKG) 8.4 2.6 2.1 6.9 32.4 7.8 2
SKDS[37] Latvijas Televīzija September 2018 about 1,000 17.2 3.8 9.4 6.9 2.2 1.5 1.7 (n/a) (Par) 5.2 (SKG) 6.2 5 1.2 12.7 25.5 1.6 7.8
FACTUM 17 – 23 September 2018 2,381 19 9 12 12 3 2 (n/a) (Par) 16 (SKG) 11 11 2 2 3
FACTUM 10 – 16 September 2018 1,164 21 10 10 13 3 3 (n/a) (Par) 14 (SKG) 11 12 2 3 7
Kantar TNS Delfi 8 – 12 September 2018 1,200 14.9 3.2 9.8 4.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 (n/a) (Par) 5.3 (SKG) 9.3 4.0 0.8 5 38 5.1 5.1
FACTUM 3 – 9 September 2018 1,293 21 9 9 14 4 3 (n/a) (Par) 15 (SKG) 13 9 2 3 6
Norstat LNT 10 – 14 September 2018 501 13.9 3.3 9 5.4 1.4 1.9 (n/a) (Par) 6.1 (SKG) 7.9 4.7 1 7 36.2 6.2 4.9
FACTUM 30 August – 5 September 2018 1,947 22 8 9 13 4 2 (n/a) (Par) 15 (SKG) 13 10 3 4 7
Norstat TV3 Latvija September 2018 14.9 3.3 9 5.7 1.8 (n/a) (Par) 6.9 (SKG) 6.6 4.5 5.4 37.6 4.3 5.9
FACTUM 27 August – 2 September 2018 1,915 24 7 9 12 3 2 (n/a) (Par) 15 (SKG) 12 11 3 5 9
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija August 2018 900 33 7.9 17.8 9.4 4.5 2.7 1.9 (n/a) (Par) 4.4 (SKG) 11.6 4.8 1.4 0.8 15.2
SKDS Web August 2018 900 24.7 5.8 9.2 10.5 4 2.6 5.2 (n/a) (Par) 7.3 (SKG) 17.7 8.4 3.1 0.1 7
FACTUM 25–31 August 2018 1,750 23 7 10 12 3 3 (n/a) (Par) 15 (SKG) 13 12 3 4 8
FACTUM 22–28 August 2018 1,337 22 7 11 12 2 3 (n/a) (Par) 13 (SKG) 15 11 3 4 7
FACTUM 20–26 August 2018 1,340 21 7 12 12 2 2 (n/a) (Par) 12 (SKG) 17 11 3 6 4
FACTUM 13–19 August 2018 1,433 21 6 12 12 4 1 4 (n/a) (Par) 10 (SKG) 16 10 3 4 5
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija August 2018 ~900 21.5 5.1 11.5 6.1 2.9 1.8 1.2 (n/a) (Par) 2.9 (SKG) 7.5 3.1 1.4 12.0 23.0 0.1 10
FACTUM 1–6 August 2018 19 5 11 13 2 1 4 (n/a) (Par) 10 (SKG) 16 14 2 5 3
FACTUM 26 July – 1 August 2018 19 5 12 12 2 1 2 (n/a) (Par) 12 (SKG) 18 12 2 5 1
FACTUM 17–23 July 2018 1,494 19 5 12 14 4 1 2 (n/a) (Par) 10 (SKG) 14 11 3 3 5
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija July 2018 1,000 21.4 2.9 12.4 6.8 1.1 1.9 0.7 (n/a) (Par) 3.9 (SKG) 7 4.4 0.5 9
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija June 2018 1,000 21.0 2.7 14.4 6.1 1.7 1.5 1.2 (n/a) (Par) 4.0 (SKG) 4.4 4.7 1.1 13.2 23.7 0.0 6.6
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija May 2018 1,000 19.1 3.7 14.6 7 1.7 1.6 1.3 (n/a) (Par) 2.4 (SKG) 3 3 0.6 13.7 27.5 0.4 4.5
Norstat TV3 Latvija May 2018 1,000 16.3 6.2 17.1 9.1 3.2 2.1 (n/a) 1.8 6.1 (SKG) 3.5 3.6 1.8 26.7 2.6 0.8
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija April 2018 1,000 23.2 4.9 12.8 8.3 2.8 2.1 3.7 (SKG) 2.4 1.7 12.2 24.7 0.4 10.4
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija March 2018 1,000 20.4 4.9 13.9 6.3 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.7 3.6 1.9 1.2 0.3 12.9 30.0 0.4 6.5
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija February 2018 1,000 21.2 4.6 14.5 7.8 2.1 4.1 1.9 13.1 25 20.2 6.7
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija January 2018 1,000 20.4 2.9 15.3 5.8 2.5 1.0 4.1 2.0 1.4 16,5 26 2.1 5.2
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija December 2017 20.7 3.5 14.3 7.3 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.8 0.9 3.0 1.5 1.5 0.2 15.3 25 0.5 6.4
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija November 2017 19.8 3.8 15.3 7.0 2.4 2.1 3.9 1.6 1.2 14 26 2.9 4.5
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija October 2017 22.5 3.5 13.1 9.5 3.4 2.2 3.9 1.2 1.2 13.8 23.5 2.2 9.4
SKDS September 2017 20.2 4.4 11.7 7.6 2.3 1.4 4.1 2.0 1.9 13.7 29.4 1.2 8.5
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija August 2017 20.9 3.1 13.1 6.8 4.3 1.6 5.5 0.8 15.9 26.1 1.9 7.8
SKDS July 2017 21.2 3.7 13.8 5.8 4.5 2.0 4.2 1.4 17.0 24.1 2.4 7.4
SKDS June 2017 22.3 4.0 14.5 5.4 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.5 12.4 26.9 1.7 7.8
SKDS April 2017 23.0 4.1 14.6 6.4 5.1 2.2 2.0 3.8 12.4 24.1 2.3 8.4
SKDS March 2017 21.2 4.2 13.1 7.9 3.9 1.9 2.9 4.0 14.3 24.0 2.6 8.1
SKDS January 2017 21.0 4.2 10.5 6.9 3.8 1.9 6.2 15.0 26.0 4.5 10.5
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija December 2016 17.8 4.5 12.5 7.4 4.2 2.4 6.5 15.1 27.1 2.5 5.3
Latvijas Fakti September 2016 17.9 5.0 17.3 7.3 2.5 2.8 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 3.4 13.0 28.6 0.0 0.6
August 2016 18.7 5.2 18.7 7.5 2.2 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.6 11.6 28.1 0.0 Tie
July 2016 18.6 6.1 18.2 7.1 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 4.3 9.4 29.3 0.0 0.4
SKDS July 2016 17.8 6.3 17.5 9.1 2.1 1.9 5.9 16.8 19.6 3.0 0.3
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija June 2016 19.2 5.4 17.1 7.8 2.3 3.1 8.4 11.3 22.7 2.7 2.1
Latvijas Fakti May 2016 19.1 4.1 19.9 6.2 2.4 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 6.1 12.4 25.6 0.0 0.8
Latvijas Fakti April 2016 16.7 3.7 20.0 8.1 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.1 11.9 29.8 0.0 3.3
Latvijas Fakti March 2016 17.9 5.5 20.2 9.0 4.6 2.3 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.4 14.7 22.4 0.0 2.3
Latvijas Fakti February 2016 18.5 5.4 18.1 8.3 3.9 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.6 17.5 22.1 1.0 0.4
Latvijas Fakti February 2016 20.1 5.9 21.2 8.7 4.6 2.2 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.5 11.9 23.9 0.0 1.1
Latvijas Fakti January 2016 18.7 5.3 16.8 8.1 4.7 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.2 12.6 30.7 0.0 1.9
Latvijas Fakti December 2015 19.5 5.5 15.6 8.7 5.0 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 11.5 31.0 0.0 3.9
Latvijas Fakti November 2015 18.1 8.1 14.9 8.2 5.6 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 12.6 26.8 0.0 3.2
Latvijas Fakti October 2015 20.5 7.2 15.1 7.9 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 13.0 28.4 0.0 5.4
Latvijas Fakti August 2015 21.7 8.0 13.6 10.0 4.4 2.8 12.7 25.1 1.7 8.1
Latvijas Fakti April 2015 20.5 10.3 13.3 9.0 4.8 3.9 1.0 0.2 11.5 24.5 1.0 7.2
Latvijas Fakti February 2015 18.4 9.8 12.7 7.7 3.6 3.4 15.3 26.5 2.6 5.7
2014 election October 2014 23.0 21.9 19.7 16.6 6.7 6.9 1.6 1.2 0.9 - - - - - - - 0.4 1.1

Graphical summary

All SKDS political party popularity poll results for 2018

Results

Winning party and their result by municipalities
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Social Democratic Party "Harmony"167,11719.9223–1
Who Owns the State?120,26414.3316New
New Conservative Party114,69413.6716+16
Development/For!101,68512.1213+13
National Alliance92,96311.0813–4
Union of Greens and Farmers83,6759.9711–10
New Unity56,5426.748–15
Latvian Association of Regions35,0184.170–8
Latvian Russian Union27,0143.2200
The Progressives22,0782.630New
For Latvia from the Heart7,1140.850–7
Latvian Nationalists [lv]4,2450.510New
For an Alternative2,9000.350New
SKG Alliance1,7350.210New
Action Party1,0590.130New
Latvian Centrist Party8970.110New
Total839,000100.001000
Valid votes839,00099.30
Invalid/blank votes5,9250.70
Total votes844,925100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,548,10054.58
Source: CVK

Aftermath

Political leaders met on 18 October with the president Raimonds Vējonis. Although they failed to agree on a name for a prime minister, they reiterated their intention to form a coalition government and to exclude Harmony from any coalition, even if it required forming a coalition of five or six parties.[38]

On 7 November 2018, Latvian President Raimonds Vējonis asked Bordāns to form a new coalition government and serve as the next Prime Minister of Latvia.[39] Bordāns intended to form a five-party majority coalition, and he announced that his coalition will not include ZZS, a political alliance led by a Latvian oligarch Aivars Lembergs.[40] However, other political parties wished to cooperate also with ZZS.[41] Consequently, Bordāns did not reach an agreement with the coalition partners, and informed the President that he is unable to form the cabinet.[42]

On 14 November 2018, Development/For!, National Alliance and New Unity pulled out of coalition talks with the New Conservative Party and KPV LV, making a five-way centre-right coalition government infeasible.[43]

After Jānis Bordāns was unsuccessful in negotiating a governing coalition, President Raimonds Vējonis nominated Gobzems as Prime Minister of Latvia on 26 November 2018 and gave him two weeks to form a government.[44][45] A week later, he proposed a coalition that would consist of his Who Owns the State? party along with the New Conservative Party, the National Alliance, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and New Unity, despite the conservatives' objection to the Greens and Farmers' inclusion in government.[46] Fellow Who Owns the State? party leader Artuss Kaimiņš also opposed the inclusion of the Greens and Farmers,[47] leading to a breakdown in talks later in the week. Gobzems then retracted his proposal for the coalition and instead called for a non-partisan cabinet of unnamed "best of the best" industry professionals,[48] a proposal that was nearly immediately rejected by the conservatives, the nationalists, and New Unity on the grounds that it could increase the influence of the Harmony party.[49] Although he had initially called on the president to hold early elections if his proposal were to be rejected, Gobzems instead offered a new four-party coalition that would not include the Union of Greens and Farmers.[50] The president revoked Gobzems' nomination on 10 December 2018.[51][52]

In December it was announced that coalition talks would continue into January.[53]

On 7 January 2019, Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš was tasked by Latvian President Raimonds Vējonis with forming the next government, following the failures of previous nominees Bordans and Gobzems in a contentious negotiation process.[54] Kariņš took office as prime minister on 23 January 2019, leading a broad centre-right coalition of five conservative and liberal parties that includes KPV LV, New Conservative Party, Development/For!, National Alliance and New Unity.

References

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  7. ^ Electoral system IPU
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