2008 Lower Saxony state election

2008 Lower Saxony state election
← 2003 27 January 2008 2013 →
All 152 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony
77 seats needed for a majority
Turnout3,422,552 (57.0%)
Decrease 10.0%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Christian Wulff Wolfgang Jüttner Philipp Rösler
Party CDU SPD FDP
Last election 91 seats, 48.3% 63 seats, 33.4% 15 seats, 8.1%
Seats won 68 48 13
Seat change Decrease 23 Decrease 15 Decrease 2
Popular vote 1,455,687 1,035,894 279,557
Percentage 42.5% 30.3% 8.2%
Swing Decrease 5.8% Decrease 3.1% Increase 0.1%
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Stefan Wenzel Kreszentia Flauger
Party Greens Left
Last election 14 seats, 7.6% 0 seats, 0.5%
Seats won 12 11
Seat change Decrease 2 Increase 11
Popular vote 273,934 243,106
Percentage 8.0% 7.1%
Swing Increase 0.4% Increase 6.6%
Results for the single-member constituencies
Minister-President before election

Christian Wulff
CDU

Elected Minister-President

Christian Wulff
CDU

The 2008 Lower Saxony state election was held on 27 January 2008 to elect the members of the 16th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Christian Wulff was re-elected with a reduced majority.[1]

Campaign

Lower Saxony was seen as a stronghold of the Christian Democratic Union[2] and their leader Christian Wulff was seen as likely to easily defeat the Social Democrats.[3] The election in Lower Saxony took place on the same day as the 2008 Hessian state election; Wulff was seen as a more moderate leader than Roland Koch in Hesse and consequently more likely to perform better in the election.[4] The CDU government had held spending down, introduced tuition fees for university students, while supporting the minimum wage.[5] The Social Democrats (SPD) led their campaign with a call for a national minimum wage for all workers.[6] The SPD leader in Lower Saxony, Wolfgang Jüttner, was little known to voters and unusually during the campaign made an attack on Wolff for his personal life.[7]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 15th Landtag of Lower Saxony.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2003 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 		Christian democracy Christian Wulff 48.3%
91 / 183
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 		Social democracy Wolfgang Jüttner 33.6%
63 / 184
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei 		Classical liberalism Philipp Rösler 8.1%
15 / 183
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 		Green politics Stefan Wenzel 7.6%
14 / 183

Opinion polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		CDU SPD FDP Grüne Linke Others Lead
2008 state election 27 Jan 2008 – 42.5 30.3 8.2 8.0 7.1 3.9 12.2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14–17 Jan 2008 1,001 46 33 7 7 5 2 13
Infratest dimap 14–16 Jan 2008 1,000 44 34 7 7 5 3 10
Infratest dimap 2–4 Jan 2008 1,000 45 33 7 8 3 4 12
Emnid 10 Dec 2007 – 2 Jan 2008 800 45 32 8 9 4 2 13
AMR Düsseldorf 29 Dec 2007 1,000 44 34 7 8 4 3 10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–6 Dec 2007 1,056 44 34 7 7 4 4 10
Infratest dimap 2–5 Nov 2007 1,000 44 33 7 9 4 3 11
Infratest dimap 5–10 Oct 2007 1,001 45 33 6 8 5 3 12
Emnid 2–6 Oct 2007 1,000 45 31 7 10 4 3 14
Infratest dimap 3–5 Sep 2007 1,000 44 34 7 9 3 3 10
Forsa 1–14 Aug 2007 1,160 47 29 7 9 4 4 18
Forsa 14–29 May 2007 1,047 46 29 8 8 4 4 17
Infratest 3–6 May 2007 1,000 41 36 8 8 4 3 5
Forsa 29 Jan–13 Feb 2007 1,193 46 29 9 9 3 4 17
Infratest dimap 19–24 Jan 2007 1,000 43 34 8 10 2 3 9
Forsa 2–14 Nov 2006 1,080 45 29 10 8 4 4 16
Forsa 25 Sep–17 Oct 2006 1,054 44 30 10 9 4 3 14
Infratest dimap 23–27 Aug 2006 1,000 40 36 8 9 4 3 4
Forsa 17 Jul–1 Aug 2006 1,086 46 31 9 8 3 3 15
Forsa 17 May–6 Jun 2006 1,039 42 36 8 8 3 3 6
Infratest dimap 17–22 Feb 2006 1,000 42 37 8 7 4 2 5
Emnid 7–12 Feb 2005 1,000 43 37 7 10 – 3 6
Emnid 28 Feb 2005 ? 44 34 7 10 – 5 10
Infratest dimap 26–31 Jan 2004 1,000 51 29 8 8 – 4 22
GMS 28 Nov–1 Dec 2003 1,000 48.5 30.5 8.5 9.0 – 3.5 17.0
Emnid 27–31 May 2003 1,000 48 31 8 10 1 2 17
2003 state election 2 Feb 2003 – 48.3 33.4 8.1 7.6 0.5 2.0 14.9

Election result

Main article: List of members of the Lower Saxon Landtag 2008–2013
Summary of the 27 January 2008 election results for the Landtag of Lower Saxony
Party Votes % +/- Seats +/- Seats %
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 1,455,687 42.5 Decrease5.8 68 Decrease23 44.7
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 1,035,894 30.3 Decrease3.1 48 Decrease15 31.6
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 279,557 8.2 Increase0.1 13 Decrease2 8.6
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 273,934 8.0 Increase0.4 12 Decrease2 7.9
The Left (Linke) 243,106 7.1 Increase6.6 11 Increase11 7.2
National Democratic Party (NPD) 52,817 1.5 Increase1.5 0 ±0 0
Others 81,557 2.4 0 ±0 0
Total 3,422,552 100.0 152 Decrease31
Voter turnout 57.0 Decrease10.0
Popular Vote
CDU
 
 42.53%
SPD
 
 30.27%
FDP
 
 8.17%
B'90/GRÜNE
 
 8.00%
DIE LINKE
 
 7.10%
Other
 
 3.93%
Landtag seats
CDU
 
 44.74%
SPD
 
 31.58%
FDP
 
 8.55%
B'90/GRÜNE
 
 7.89%
DIE LINKE
 
 7.24%

Outcome

The results saw the Christian Democratic Union easily defeat the Social Democrats, despite suffering a drop in votes and seats.[8][9] As a result, their leader Christian Wulff was seen as having strengthened his chances of succeeding national CDU leader Angela Merkel.[10] The 30.3% of the vote that the Social Democrats won was the worst performance by the party in Lower Saxony since the Second World War,[5] which was described as a 'disaster' for the party.[11] Turnout in the election was 57%.[10]

The Left entered the Landtag for the first time with 7.1% of the vote, comfortably exceeding the 5% electoral threshold.[12] Along with the election in Hesse held on the same day in which The Left also won seats, this was the first time they had achieved representation in any large state in western Germany.[13]

References

  1. ^ Kulish, Nicholas (28 January 2008). "Merkel Party's Edge Is Tiny in Crucial State". The New York Times. Retrieved 15 May 2009.
  2. ^ Benoit, Bertrand (4 December 2007). "Merkel in attack on US-style pay awards". Financial Times. p. 2.
  3. ^ "Europe: Pay and punishment; Germany's state elections". The Economist. 19 January 2008. p. 34.
  4. ^ Scally, Derek (26 January 2008). "German state polls apolitical test for Merkel". The Irish Times. p. 11.
  5. ^ a b "Europe: Hessen lesson; German state elections". The Economist. 2 February 2008. p. 42.
  6. ^ Benoit, Bertrand (28 December 2007). "SPD to focus on minimum wage". Financial Times. p. 4.
  7. ^ "Dossier: German State Elections in Hesse and Lower Saxony". Deutsche Welle. 26 January 2008. Retrieved 15 May 2009.
  8. ^ Quetteville, Harry de (28 January 2008). "Support for Merkel slumps in state poll". The Daily Telegraph. p. 14.
  9. ^ Benoit, Bertrand (29 January 2008). "Merkel emerges with prize from Hesse poll". Financial Times. p. 2.
  10. ^ a b Scally, Derek (28 January 2008). "Setback for Merkel as support for CDU slips in state elections". The Irish Times. p. 11.
  11. ^ "Merkel's CDU suffers setback in two state elections (Roundup)". Monsters and Critics. 28 January 2008. Retrieved 15 May 2009.
  12. ^ Benoit, Bertrand (28 January 2008). "German elections offer scant cheer for big parties". Financial Times. p. 6.
  13. ^ Benoit, Bertrand (29 January 2008). "Merkel relief over German poll result". Financial Times. p. 2.