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Hipótese do mercado eficiente

Plota os retornos temporais na aquisição de ações com base em divulgações de ganhos, ajustados para o retorno médio, utilizando dados de 2010 a 2020, em conformidade com a Figura 5 de Martineau (2012, Critical Finance Review)

Em Finanças, a hipótese do mercado eficiente[1] afirma que mercados financeiros são "eficientes em relação à informação". Ou seja, um agente não consegue alcançar consistentemente retornos superiores à média do mercado (com um determinado nível de risco), considerando as informações publicamente disponíveis no momento em que o investimento é feito.

Existem três versões principais da hipótese: "fraca", "semiforte" e "forte".

  • A hipótese "fraca" considera que os preços negociados para os bens (por exemplo, ações, obrigações ou propriedade) refletem toda a informação histórica disponível publicamente.
  • A hipótese "semi forte" afirma que os preços refletem todas as informações publicamente disponíveis, e também que os preços mudam instantaneamente para refletir as novas informações públicas.
  • A hipótese "forte" afirma que os preços refletem instantaneamente até mesmo informações ocultas ou "privilegiadas". Há evidências a favor e contra as hipóteses "fraca" e "semi forte", ao passo que há evidências fortes contra a hipótese "forte".

A validade da hipótese tem sido questionada por críticos que culpam a crença nos mercados racionais por muito da crise econômica de 2008-2009.[2][3][4] Defensores da hipótese alertam que a hipótese não consegue garantir a estabilidade de um mercado; se a informação publicamente disponível for instável, o mercado pode também ficar instável.

Ver também

Referências

  1. FAMA, Eugene (1970). «Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work». The Journal of Finance 
  2. Fox, Justin (2009). Myth of the Rational Market. [S.l.: s.n.] 
  3. Nocera, Joe (5 de junho de 2009). «Poking Holes in a Theory on Markets». New York Times. Consultado em 8 de junho de 2009 
  4. «On Wall Street, the Price isn't Right». Washington Post. 7 de junho de 2008. Consultado em 12 de junho de 2009 
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