When I started handling sockpuppetry unblocks, I dutifully read User:Blablubbs/8ball and User:ST47/8ball. As I tried to divine the mysteries of 8-ball reading from various other CUs on behalf of various blocked editors, I came to learn that each CU has their own personality (shocking), and that many other CUs have stricter readings of what "confirmed" means than either of those 8-balls suggest. Having since become a CU, and recently gone through the logs of a case that had been worked on by several different CUs, I'm now fairly confident that the CUs who regularly work at SPI these days are actually pretty in step with each other, at least down through to "likely". So maybe it's time for a new 8-ball. Here's mine.

Directly comparing two or more accounts, neither of which are stale:

• Confirmed: if these are not the same person, one of them is sitting in the other one's lap. If accompanied with an adjective, like "extremely Confirmed", one of them is sitting in the other one's lap, and also they are telepathic.
• Highly likely: if these are not the same person, they were probably sitting in the same room and talking to each other at the time.
• Likely: if these are not the same person, one of them has probably passed the other in the hallway. Basically, if I'm using this, I am quite convinced they're the same person. But I could be unconvinced, given a sufficiently interesting story.
•  Possilikely (a mix between possible and likely): if these are not the same person, chances are they know each other. I did not find a smoking gun and I'm mad about it.
•  Possible: if these are not the same person, I would not be surprised. These could easily be different people on a purely technical level. If I have particular misgivings, I'll say so.
•  Unlikely: if these are the same person, that's very curious indeed.
• Unrelated: there is no shared technical data, other than (possibly) a very common UA. I am as certain as it is possible to be, given the data, that these are different people. But the data might be wrong. You never really know.
•  Technically indistinguishable: means what it says on the tin. Can't tell 'em apart. Whether you figure they're the same person or not depends on the behaviour. If I think the behaviour is obvious too, I'll block these.
• Inconclusive: signs point to "they're deliberately trying to screw with us". Or there's just basically no data to work with.

Against "historicals":

• Do not interpret these like the ones in the set above. Stop shoving beans up your nose and ask me privately if you need to.
• Highly likely: I'm super sure.
• Likely: I'm sure.
•  Possilikely (a mix between possible and likely): thanks, I hate it.
•  Possible: it's not exonerating.
• Unrelated: what it says on the tin. People can move, change their habits, etc, so this doesn't actually mean this isn't the same person.
• Inconclusive: I give up.