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Next Murcian regional election
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia; 23 seats needed for a majority
	Opinion polls
Incumbent President; TBD;	; ;

The next Murcian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 May 2027, to elect the 12th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally.^[2]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 23 May 2027.^[1]^[2]^[3]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.^[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the present time.^[4]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups		Parties		Legislators
Groups		Parties		Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	21	21
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	13	13
	Vox Parliamentary Group		Vox	9	9
	Mixed Group		Podemos	2	2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[2]^[3]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Votes (%)	Seats	Gov.	Ref.
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Fernando López Miras	Conservatism Christian democracy	42.79%	21	Y
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		José Vélez	Social democracy	25.62%	13	N
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		José Ángel Antelo	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	17.71%	9	N
	Podemos– IU–AV	List We Can (Podemos) United Left–Greens of the Region of Murcia (IU–V–RM) – Communist Party of the Region of Murcia (PCM) – Ecosocialists of the Region of Murcia (ESRM) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Green Alliance (AV)		María Marín	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	4.69%	2	N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 May 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							SALF	Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout								Lead
OBEDE/UCAM^{[p 1]}	15–29 Nov 2024	800	60.2	46.3 23	23.3 12	19.6 10	–	–	–	–	23.0
CEMOP^{[p 2]}	23 Sep–4 Oct 2024	820	62.4	44.1 22	24.9 12	18.8 9	5.1 2	–	–	–	19.2
SyM Consulting^{[p 3]}	15–19 Oct 2024	1,000	61.4	45.4 22	25.8 12/13	19.5 9	4.0 1/2	2.6 0	–	–	19.6
Sigma Dos/La 7^{[p 4]}^{[p 5]}	2–11 Sep 2024	1,004	?	46.8 22/23	26.6 12/13	16.3 7/8	4.3 1/2	–	–	3.1 0/1	20.2
Data10/OKDiario^{[p 6]}	15–16 Jul 2024	1,500	?	46.6 23	27.7 14	14.2 7	3.4 1	–	–	–	18.9
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 7]}	13–16 Jul 2024	1,000	64.2	47.0 24	23.8 12	15.9 8	3.1 1	–	–	–	23.2
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—	46.8	42.9 (21)	25.1 (12)	15.9 (8)	2.4 (0)	–	3.3 (1)	6.6 (3)	17.8
CEMOP^{[p 8]}	20–30 May 2024	820	63.4	46.1 22	26.9 13	17.9 8	4.7 2	–	–	–	19.2
CEMOP^{[p 9]}	5–22 Mar 2024	818	62.7	47.7 23	24.3 12	16.7 8	5.4 2	–	–	–	23.4
CEMOP^{[p 10]}	11–22 Jan 2024	817	63.8	41.8 21	24.8 12	20.4 10	5.1 2	–	–	–	17.0
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	70.8	41.2 (19)	25.3 (12)	21.8 (10)	^[a]	–	9.5 (4)	–	15.9
CEMOP^{[p 11]}	3–13 Jul 2023	1,200	68	44.3 22	25.3 12/13	17.5 8/9	5.7 2	–	–	–	19.0

2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	63.2	42.8 21	25.6 13	17.7 9	4.7 2	3.0 0	–	–	17.2

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						?	N	Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						?	N	Lead
CEMOP^{[p 2]}	23 Sep–4 Oct 2024	820	24.5	13.4	14.7	3.0	–	23.5	14.0	9.8
CEMOP^{[p 8]}	20–30 May 2024	820	32.6	16.7	14.1	4.6	–	19.0	9.3	15.9
CEMOP^{[p 9]}	5–22 Mar 2024	818	28.9	11.7	9.3	4.0	–	24.9	16.7	17.2
CEMOP^{[p 10]}	11–22 Jan 2024	817	28.8	13.0	13.5	2.7	–	21.8	13.7	15.3
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	28.9	17.7	15.3	^[a]	6.7	—	29.2	10.9
CEMOP^{[p 11]}	3–13 Jul 2023	1,200	35.0	20.7	17.8	5.3	–	10.6	5.4	14.3

2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—	27.2	16.3	11.3	3.0	–	—	34.3	10.9