Billy Green, who was known as the King of Valley Stream (New York) among his peers in high school, is now kind of a loser, after peaking in high school. While he works as a restroom attendant in a Las Vegas nightclub, he tells everyone back home that he is a club investor, hobnobbing with the rich and famous who frequent the club. He has to go home to Valley Stream for Thanksgiving weekend to collect all his belongings from his parents' house before they move to Santa Fe. While there, he hopes to reconnect with his high school girlfriend Kara Doblowski if only to make him feel like "The King" once again. If not, he, as solace, still has the hidden but somewhat known video tape, at least among the male members of his peer group, of the kinky things he did with Elana Perkins née Duncan, she now married to VSPD Lt. Jason Perkins, one of their classmates who also knows about the tape. Billy quickly learns that nothing will happen with Kara, who has grown up and is dating Lowell Shapiro, now a pharmacist but who was seen back then as the weirdo among their class. Despite the Shapiros long having lived across the street from the Greens, Billy did not associate with him. Seeing some activity at the Shapiro house in the middle of the night followed by the body of Lowell's dead mother being transported away the next morning eventually leads to Billy's belief that Lowell murdered his mother as there was always rumors that he was abused by his parents growing up. With the help of Billy's somewhat clueless best friend Duane Douscher, Billy goes on a search for evidence to support his theory. It may not be clear in Billy's own mind if he truly does believe it and is trying to protect Kara, or if it is solely a way to get back together with Kara in being her knight in shining armor.
Most Likely to Murder received mixed to positive reviews from film critics. It holds a 62% approval rating on review aggregator website Rotten Tomatoes, based on 13 reviews, with an average of 5.9/10.[7]