Morphological analysis or general morphological analysis is a method for exploring possible solutions to a multi-dimensional, non-quantified complex problem. It was developed by Swiss astronomer Fritz Zwicky.[1] General morphology has found use in fields including engineering design, technological forecasting, organizational development and policy analysis.[2]
Overview
General morphology was developed by Fritz Zwicky, the Bulgarian-born, Swiss-national astrophysicist based at the California Institute of Technology. Among others, Zwicky applied morphological analysis to astronomical studies and jet and rocket propulsion systems. As a problem-structuring and problem-solving technique, morphological analysis was designed for multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problems where causal modelling and simulation do not function well, or at all.
Zwicky developed this approach to address seemingly non-reducible complexity: using the technique of cross-consistency assessment (CCA),[1] the system allows for reduction by identifying the possible solutions that actually exist, eliminating the illogical solution combinations in a grid box rather than reducing the number of variables involved.[3]
An example morphological box illustrating the attributes of different types of bread
Decomposition versus morphological analysis
Problems that involve many governing factors, where most of them cannot be expressed numerically can be well suited for morphological analysis.
The conventional approach is to break a complex system into parts, isolate the parts (dropping the 'trivial' elements) whose contributions are critical to the output and solve the simplified system for desired scenarios. The disadvantage of this method is that many real-world phenomena do not have obviously trivial elements and cannot be simplified.
Morphological analysis works backwards from the output towards the system internals without a simplification step.[4] The system's interactions are fully accounted for in the analysis.
^Modelling Complex Socio-Technical Systems Using Morphological Analysis (Ritchey 2003-06)[1]Archived 2007-09-29 at the Wayback Machine
Further reading
Ritchey, Tom (2011), "Modelling Complex Policy Issues with Morphological Analysis", Wicked Problems – Social Messes, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 31–37, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9_4, ISBN9783642196522
Zwicky, Fritz; Page, T. (1969-03-21). "Discovery, Invention, Research, through the Morphological Approach". Science. 163 (3873). New York: Macmillan: 1317–1318. doi:10.1126/science.163.3873.1317. ISSN0036-8075.
Shubik, M. (1969-12-05). "Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning. Robert U. Ayres. McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969. xviii + 238 pp., illus. $12.50". Science. 166 (3910): 1257–1258. doi:10.1126/science.166.3910.1257. ISSN0036-8075.
Duczynski, Guy (October 2004). "Systems approaches to economic development for indigenous people: a case study of the Noongar Aboriginals of Australia". Futures. 36 (8): 869–888. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2004.01.001. ISSN0016-3287.
Levin, Mark Sh. (2014-09-06), "Modular Systems, Combinatorial Engineering Frameworks", Modular System Design and Evaluation, Decision Engineering, Springer International Publishing, pp. 1–10, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-09876-0_1, ISBN9783319098753
Duczynski, Guy (January 2018). "Investigating traffic congestion: Targeting technological and social interdependencies through general morphological analysis". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 126: 161–167. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.019. ISSN0040-1625.
Duczynski, Guy; dov Bachmann, Sascha; Smith, Matthew; Knight, Charles (August 2023). "Operational and Strategic Progress in Ukraine: Identifying the Condition Changes". Naval Post-Graduate School, Insights, Monterrey. available at: ECCO Insights - Global ECCO - Naval Postgraduate School
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