Economic Cycle Research Institute

Economic Cycle Research Institute
NicknameECRI
PredecessorCenter for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR)
Formation1996; 28 years ago (1996)
FoundersGeoffrey H. Moore, Anirvan Banerji, and Lakshman Achuthan
Purposeto preserve and advance the tradition of business cycle research established at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR)
Headquarters500 5th Avenue
Location
  • New York City, United States
Coordinates40°45′14″N 73°58′52″W / 40.75391°N 73.98102°W / 40.75391; -73.98102
Originsthe National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Key people
Anirvan Banerji and Lakshman Achuthan (co-founders), Melinda Hubman and Dimitra Visviki (managing director)
Websitewww.businesscycle.com

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) based in New York City, is an independent institute formed in 1996 by Geoffrey H. Moore, Anirvan Banerji, and Lakshman Achuthan.[1][2] It provides economic modeling, financial databases, economic forecasting, and market cycles services to investment managers, business executives, and government policymakers.

Purpose

ECRI's stated mission is to preserve and advance the tradition of business cycle research established by Moore at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR). In contrast to the NBER, ECRI sells cycle risk management services to the business community. It provides economic modeling, financial databases, economic forecasting, and market cycles services to investment managers, business executives, and government policymakers.[3][4]

International business cycle chronologies

Before there was a Business Cycle Dating Committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates,[5] Moore determined them on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he died in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for over 20 other countries that are widely accepted by academics and major central banks as the definitive international business cycle chronologies Archived August 6, 2020, at the Wayback Machine.

History

ECRI today represents a third generation of cycle research, building on the work of ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns.[6]

In 1920, Wesley C. Mitchell and his colleagues established the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with a primary objective of investigating business cycles.[7] In 1927, Mitchell laid down the standard definition of business cycles: "Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating their own."[8]

In 1929, with the start of the Great Depression, business cycle researchers had a practical emergency on their hands. With the economy back in recession, in the summer of 1937, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau Jr. requested Mitchell "to draw up a list of statistical series that would best indicate when the recession would come to an end."[9][10] In 1938, Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns identified the first leading indicators of revival. Also in 1938, Geoffrey H. Moore joined Mitchell and Burns at the NBER.[11]

In 1946, Moore taught Alan Greenspan, who served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States from 1987 to 2006,[12] In 1950, Moore developed the first-ever leading indicators of cyclical revival and recession. In 1958 to 1967, Moore, working with Julius Shiskin, developed the original composite index method, and the composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators of the U.S. economy.[13] In 1968, Moore gave over to the U.S. government the original composite leading, coincident, and lagging indexes, which the United States Department of Commerce adopted (and published regularly in Business Cycle Developments (BCD), soon renamed Business Conditions Digest), with the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) becoming its main forecasting gauge.[14] In 1969, Moore was appointed U.S. Commissioner of Labor Statistics,[15] and took a four-year leave from the NBER. While Commissioner, he started the collection of additional statistics, including the Employment Cost Index. In 1973, Moore and Philip A. Klein began developing international leading indexes.

In 1979, having retired from the NBER, Moore established the Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR) at Rutgers University, moving it four years later to Columbia University.[16]

In February 1994, following a surprise rate hike, Chairman Greenspan testified in Congress that "anything that Geoffrey Moore does I follow closely," to which a Congressman replies, "No kidding." In 1995, Moore received the American Economic Association's Distinguished Fellow Award.[17]

In 1996, Moore, with his protégés, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, established the independent Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which virtually all of their CIBCR colleagues then joined.

ECRI's approach

Many economists claim that recessions cannot be predicted. A 63-country study of economists' predictions conducted by the International Monetary Fund concluded that their "record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished."[18]

However, The Economist noted in 2005 that "ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm."[19] In May 2011, Business Insider reported "The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ERCI) ... have been quite accurate in forecasting business cycle in recent years ...."[20]

Recession and recovery calls

2001 recession call:

In March 2001, ECRI made a U.S. recession call[21] and in April 2001 ECRI's Achuthan told The Wall Street Journal that "the economy has passed the point of no return, beyond which it is not possible to shift away from the recession track."[22]

2007-09 recession and recovery calls:

In January 2008, it said Weekly Leading Index growth "has now dropped to a new six-year low. Even so, it is still possible for prompt policy action to help avert a recession".[23]

In March 2008, "the Economic Cycle Research Institute made its official call, stating that the U.S. economy had "unambiguously" entered a recession."[24]

In April 2009 ECRI said "The longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will probably end before the summer is out."[25][26]

2011-12 recession forecast:

In September 2011, ECRI forecast a U.S. recession that never happened. Growth did slow sharply and was "about as weak as it could be without falling into recession."[27] ECRI "had predicted that the final six months of 2012 would register contraction. The first estimate of GDP growth came in at 1 ½% (that is, at an annual rate of 1 ½%). The fifth revision to that initial estimate, unveiled in July, pushed down the measured rate of growth to a quarter of 1%, about as close to shrinkage as a positive growth figure can be."[28]

2015:

In October 2015, ECRI titled its international cyclical outlook "Broader Global Slowdown Ahead".[29] Specifically, ECRI predicted the "progressively poorer global growth" that materialized in early 2016.

2020 recession and recovery calls:

On March 17, 2020, with U.S. states about to issue stay-at-home orders, ECRI wrote that "cascading closures across the economy will necessarily cause a breakdown in demand." The result would be "mandated demand destruction, which is likely to railroad the economy into a contraction. A recession is increasingly unavoidable".[30] But on April 3, 2020, ECRI wrote that "this recession will be extremely deep, very broad, but relatively brief," as "shutdowns start ebbing" in short order.[31] Then, on June 24, 2020, ECRI wrote that its leading indexes "have been signaling the start of an economic recovery for some time now." Noting that stock prices had always turned up "ahead of the business cycle trough," they concluded: "In light of this historical pattern, coupled with the sequential upturns in our leading indexes, it's logical that the S&P 500 would turn up when it did, in late March".[32]

Publicly available data

References

  1. ^ Hershey Jr., Robert D. (March 11, 2000). "Geoffrey H. Moore, 86, Dies; An Analyst of Business Cycles". The New York Times. Retrieved May 8, 2016.
  2. ^ "US recovery to be "stronger than many expect"--ECRI". Reuters. July 31, 2009.
  3. ^ "Economic Cycle Research Institute - Company Profile and News". Bloomberg.com.
  4. ^ a b c d "Economic Cycle Research Institute Index," NASDAQ.
  5. ^ "Web". National Bureau of Economic Research. National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved May 8, 2016.
  6. ^ [1]
  7. ^ "Web". The National Bureau of Economic Research. The National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved May 8, 2016.
  8. ^ Ferri, Piero; Greenberg, Edward (March 5, 1992). Ferri, Piero; Greenberg, Edward (eds.). Wages, Regime Switching, and Cycles. Springer. pp. 17–29. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-77241-2_2.
  9. ^ "Web". U.S. Department of the Treasury. U.S. Department of the Treasury. Retrieved May 8, 2016.
  10. ^ Moore, Geoffrey H. (1983). Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting (2nd ed.). Ballinger. pp. 369–400. ISBN 0-884-10285-8. Retrieved May 8, 2016.
  11. ^ JSTOR, Indian Economic Review.
  12. ^ "Web". Federal Reserve History. Federal Reserve History. Retrieved May 8, 2016.
  13. ^ Moore, Geoffrey H.; Shiskin, Julius (March 5, 1967). "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions" – via RePEc - Econpapers.
  14. ^ "Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions". NBER.
  15. ^ "Web". Bureau of Labor Statistics. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved May 8, 2016.
  16. ^ "Center for International Business Cycle Research, New York | UIA Yearbook Profile". Union of International Associations.
  17. ^ "American Economic Association". www.aeaweb.org.
  18. ^ Loungani, Prakash (April 2000). "How Accurate are Private Sector Forecasts? Cross-Country Evidence from Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth" (PDF). IMF Working Paper (77): 1–32. doi:10.5089/9781451849981.001. Retrieved May 9, 2016.
  19. ^ "Divining the Future". The Economist. Retrieved May 9, 2016.
  20. ^ Analyst, Also Sprach. "Economic Cycle Research Institute Predicts Manufacturing Slow-Down". Business Insider.
  21. ^ "U.S. Cyclical Outlook "Recession"" (PDF). Economic Cycle Research Institute. Economic Cycle Research Institute. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
  22. ^ Barta, Patrick. "Economic Indexes Disagree On Odds for a U.S. Recession". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
  23. ^ "US leading index growth rate at six-year low -ECRI". Reuters. January 11, 2008.
  24. ^ Pedro Nicolaci, da Costa. "U.S. has entered "recession of choice," ECRI says". Reuters. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
  25. ^ Pedro Nicolaci, da Costa. "U.S. recession likely over by end of summer: ECRI". Reuters. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
  26. ^ "Economic Cycle Research Institute: No double-dip recession - Oct. 28, 2010". money.cnn.com.
  27. ^ Sommer, Jeff. "Scoping Out a Phantom Recession". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
  28. ^ "Macroeconomic Sightings". Economic Cycle Research Institute. Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
  29. ^ International Cyclical Outlook Essentials, Vol. 10, No. 10, October 2015
  30. ^ Achuthan, Lakshman; Banerji, Anirvan. "The Fed's latest rate cut was a useless and desperate move". CNN Business Perspectives. Retrieved October 15, 2021.
  31. ^ Achuthan, Lakshman. "A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession". Investopedia. Retrieved October 15, 2021.
  32. ^ Achuthan, Lakshman; Banerji, Anirvan. "Yes, we're in a recession. But the stock market's rally still makes perfect sense". CNN Business Perspectives. Retrieved October 15, 2021.
  33. ^ "A flashing red light from the ECRI". Financial Times.

Read other articles:

One Piece (season 12)

Season of television series One PieceSeason 12Island of WomenThe cover of the first DVD compilation released by Toei Animation of the twelfth season.Country of originJapanNo. of episodes14ReleaseOriginal networkFuji TelevisionOriginal releaseJuly 5 (2009-07-05) –October 11, 2009 (2009-10-11)Season chronology← PreviousSeason 11 Next →Season 13 List of episodes The twelfth season of the One Piece anime series was directed by Hiroaki Miyamoto and produced by Toei A...

 

羅生門 (電影)

本條目存在以下問題，請協助改善本條目或在討論頁針對議題發表看法。 此條目需要补充更多来源。 (2018年3月17日)请协助補充多方面可靠来源以改善这篇条目，无法查证的内容可能會因為异议提出而被移除。致使用者：请搜索一下条目的标题（来源搜索：羅生門 (電影) — 网页、新闻、书籍、学术、图像），以检查网络上是否存在该主题的更多可靠来源（判定指引）。 �...

 

Piemonte

Tatak han Rehiyon han Piemonte Bandera han Piemonte Mapa kun diin makikit-an an mga lalawigan han Rehiyon han Piemonte An Piemonte (ha Piemontese ngan Occitan: Piemont; ha Franses: Piémont; ha Kinatsila: Piamonte; ha Iningles: Piedmont) amo an usa (1) ha karuhaan (20) ka rehiyon han Italya. An ulohan hini amo an Turin. Mga lalawigan han Piemonte Alessandria Asti Biella Cuneo Novara Turin Verbano-Cusio-Ossola Vercelli khlMga Rehiyon han Italya    AbruzzoSiong han AostaApuliaBas...

Bhopal Pride March

The Bhopal Pride March was an event held in 2017 to celebrate lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) culture in Bhopal, India. Bhopal Pride March The march occurred on 17 May 2017.[1] Events included panel discussions, music events, street plays and an art exhibition.[1] The march in 2017 was the first pride march in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, and was held on the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia and Biphobia.[2] The parade began at th...

 

I Wish (film)

I WishPoster filmSutradaraHirokazu Kore-edaProduserKentarō KoikeHijiri TaguchiDitulis olehHirokazu Kore-edaPenata musikKishida ShigeruSinematograferYutaka YamasakiPenyuntingHirokazu Kore-edaPerusahaanproduksiShirogumi Inc.BIGXDistributorGagaTanggal rilis 11 Juni 2011 (2011-06-11) (Jepang) Durasi127 menitNegaraJepangBahasaJepangPendapatankotor$1,543,385[1] I Wish (奇跡code: ja is deprecated , Kiseki, terj. har.Miracle) adalah film Jepang tahun 2011 yang disunting, dit...

 

1940 United States presidential election in North Carolina

Main article: 1940 United States presidential election 1940 United States presidential election in North Carolina ← 1936 November 5, 1940[1] 1944 → All 13 North Carolina votes to the Electoral College   Nominee Franklin D. Roosevelt Wendell Willkie Party Democratic Republican Home state New York New York Running mate Henry A. Wallace Charles L. McNary Electoral vote 13 0 Popular vote 609,015 213,633 Percentage 74.03% 25.97% County Result...

Kalachakra

Nondualistic tantra tradition in Tibetan Buddhism A Kālacakra Mandala with the deities Kalachakra and Vishvamata Kālacakra (Tibetan: དུས་ཀྱི་འཁོར་ལོ།, Wylie: dus kyi 'khor lo) is a polysemic term in Vajrayana Buddhism as well as Hinduism that means wheel of time or time cycles.[1] Kālacakra is also the name of a series of Buddhist texts and a major practice lineage in Indian Buddhism and Tibetan Buddhism.[2] The tantra is considered to belong...

 

Scribd

ScribdURLwww.scribd.comTipesitus web, perusahaan bisnis dan organisasi LangueInggrisPembuatTrip Adler dan Jared Friedman Service entry (en)Maret 2006 Lokasi kantor pusatSan Francisco NegaraAmerika Serikat Peringkat Alexa210 (29 November 2017) Keadaanaktif Scribd adalah situs web berbagi dokumen di mana pengguna terdaftar dapat mengirimkan dokumennya dengan berbagai format, dan menyimpan dokumen mereka ke situs tersebut dalam format iPaper. Scribd sekarang telah mempunyai lebih dari 50 juta pe...

 

Ford FG Falcon

Questa voce sull'argomento automobili è solo un abbozzo. Contribuisci a migliorarla secondo le convenzioni di Wikipedia. Segui i suggerimenti del progetto di riferimento. Ford FG FalconDescrizione generaleCostruttore Ford Motor Company of Australia Tipo principaleBerlina Produzionedal 2008 al 2014 Sostituisce laFord BF Falcon Sostituita daFord FG X Falcon Altre caratteristicheDimensioni e massaLunghezza4955 (berlina, versione XT) mm Larghezza1868 (berlina) mm Altezz...

Decompression practice

Techniques and procedures for safe decompression of divers Divers using the anchor cable as an aid to depth control during a decompression stop during ascent. To prevent or minimize decompression sickness, divers must properly plan and monitor decompression. Divers follow a decompression model to safely allow the release of excess inert gases dissolved in their body tissues, which accommodated as a result of breathing at ambient pressures greater than surface atmospheric pressure. Decompress...

 

Bianca Knight

Questa voce sull'argomento atleti statunitensi è solo un abbozzo. Contribuisci a migliorarla secondo le convenzioni di Wikipedia. Segui i suggerimenti del progetto di riferimento. Bianca Knight Bianca Knight al Memorial Van Damme 2010 Nazionalità  Stati Uniti Altezza 160 cm Peso 63 kg Atletica leggera Specialità Velocità Record 50 m 628 (indoor - 2012) 60 m 716 (indoor - 2008) 100 m 1107 (2008) 200 m 2235 (2011) 200 m 2240 (indoor - 2008) 400 m 5255 (2011) 400 m 5469 (indoor - ...

 

Samsung Galaxy A32

2021 Android smartphone produced by Samsung Not to be confused with Samsung Galaxy M32. Samsung Galaxy A32Samsung Galaxy A32 5GSamsung Galaxy A32 (4G LTE)BrandSamsung GalaxyManufacturerSamsung ElectronicsSloganAwesome screen, awesome camera, long-lasting battery lifeSeriesGalaxy A seriesModelInternational models:4G: SM-A325F, SM-A325F/DS, SM-A325M 5G: SM-A326B, SM-A326B/DS, SM-A326BR, SM-A326BR/DS, SM-A326UJapanese model:SCG08 (au, 5G)First released4G: 25 February 2021; 3 years a...

Yokosuka K2Y

Yokosuka K2YK2Y fotografato nel 1938DescrizioneTipoaereo da addestramento Equipaggio2 Costruttore 1º Ars.Tec. Kūgishō Kawanishi Mitsubishi Hitachi Shōwa Watanabe Data entrata in servizio1929 Data ritiro dal servizio1943 Utilizzatore principale Dai-Nippon Teikoku Kaigun Kōkū Hombu Altri utilizzatori Dai-Manshū Teikoku Kūgun Esemplari360 Sviluppato dalAvro 504N Dimensioni e pesiLunghezza8,60 m Apertura alare10,90 m Altezza3,13 m Superficie alare29,43 m² Carico alare30,7 kg/m² Peso a v...

 

2019 Louisiana Attorney General election

2019 Louisiana Attorney General election ← 2015 October 12, 2019[1] 2023 →   Nominee Jeff Landry Ike Jackson Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 855,338 436,531 Percentage 66.21% 33.79% Parish results State Senate results Precinct resultsLandry:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%Jackson: ...

 

Art in the Protestant Reformation and Counter-Reformation

Protestant Reformation: 16th century, Europe Hans Holbein the Younger's Noli me tangere a relatively rare Protestant oil painting of Christ from the Reformation period. It is small, and generally naturalistic in style, avoiding iconic elements like the halo, which is barely discernible. The Protestant Reformation during the 16th century in Europe almost entirely rejected the existing tradition of Catholic art, and very often destroyed as much of it as it could reach. A new artistic tradition ...

KMJ-FM

News/talk radio station in Fresno, California KMJ-FMSimulcasts KMJ, FresnoFresno, CaliforniaBroadcast areaFresno metropolitan area; Central CaliforniaFrequency105.9 MHzBrandingKMJ NowProgrammingFormatNews/talkAffiliationsFox News RadioPremiere NetworksRadio AmericaWestwood OneOwnershipOwnerCumulus Media(Cumulus Licensing LLC)Sister stationsKMGV, KMJ, KSKS, KWYEHistoryFirst air dateDecember 8, 1979 (as KKDJ)Former call signsKKDJ (1979–1997)KRNC (1997–2004)KKDG (2004–2005)KFJK (2005–200...

 

Samuel J. Palmisano

American businessman Samuel J. PalmisanoPalmisano in March 2013Born (1951-07-29) July 29, 1951 (age 72) [1]Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.EducationBachelor of Arts (1973)Alma materJohns Hopkins UniversityYears active1973–presentEmployerIBM (1973–2012)TitleChairmanPredecessorLouis V. Gerstner, Jr.SuccessorVirginia M. RomettyBoard member ofIBM Corporation, 2000ExxonMobil Corp., 2006Spouse(s)Gaier Notman, known as MissyChildrenthree sons, one daughterWebsiteIBM - Samuel...

 

Curaçao

Dutch Caribbean island country This article is about the island country. For other uses, see Curaçao (disambiguation). Not to be confused with Curacoa, Curassow, or Carriacou. Constituent country in the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Kingdom of the NetherlandsCuraçaoKòrsou (Papiamentu)Constituent country in the Kingdom of the NetherlandsCountry of CuraçaoLand Curaçao (Dutch)Pais Kòrsou (Papiamentu) FlagCoat of armsAnthem: Himno di Kòrsou(English: Anthem of Curaçao) Royal anthem: W...

Tirabin al-Sana

Place in Southern, IsraelTirabin al-Sana תראבין א-צאנע‎ترابينTirabin al-Sana's mosque under constructionTirabin al-SanaShow map of Northwest Negev region of IsraelTirabin al-SanaShow map of IsraelCoordinates: 31°20′44″N 34°44′13″E / 31.34556°N 34.73694°E / 31.34556; 34.73694Country IsraelDistrictSouthernCouncilAl-KasomFounded2005Population (2022)[1]1,294 A local medical clinic A private house being built in Tirabin a...

 

Itaweret

Kerah lebar Itaweret, ditemukan di tubuhnya Itaweret (Ita Tua) merupakan putri raja Mesir kuno yang hidup pada zaman Dinasti kedua belas Mesir sekitar 1850 SM. Dia dikenal dari pemakamannya di sebelah piramida Raja Amenemhat II di Dahshur. Pemakaman itu ditemukan utuh dan berisi peti mati kayu yang dihias dan kotak dengan teks-teks keagamaan yang lebih panjang termasuk namanya. Beberapa perhiasan pribadi juga ditemukan di makam.[1] Lokasi makam mungkin menunjukkan bahwa dia adalah put...