Climate change in Asia

The 2022 South Asian floods, including in Pakistan (pictured) are an example of a climate change impact.[1][2]

Climate change is particularly important in Asia, as the continent accounts for the majority of the human population. Warming since the 20th century is increasing the threat of heatwaves across the entire continent.[3]: 1459  Heatwaves lead to increased mortality, and the demand for air conditioning is rapidly accelerating as the result. By 2080, around 1 billion people in the cities of South and Southeast Asia are expected to experience around a month of extreme heat every year.[3]: 1460  The impacts on water cycle are more complicated: already arid regions, primarily located in West Asia and Central Asia, will see more droughts, while areas of East, Southeast and South Asia which are already wet due to the monsoons will experience more flooding.[3]: 1459 

The waters around Asia are subjected to the same impacts as elsewhere, such as the increased warming and ocean acidification.[3]: 1465  There are many coral reefs in the region, and they are highly vulnerable to climate change,[3]: 1459  to the point practically all of them will be lost if the warming exceeds 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).[4][5] Asia's distinctive mangrove ecosystems are also highly vulnerable to sea level rise.[3]: 1459  Asia also has more countries with large coastal populations than any other continent, which would cause large economic impacts from sea level rise.[3]: 1459  Water supplies in the Hindu Kush region will become more unstable as its enormous glaciers, known as the "Asian water towers", gradually melt.[3]: 1459  These changes to water cycle also affect vector-borne disease distribution, with malaria and dengue fever expected to become more prominent in the tropical and subtropical regions.[3]: 1459  Food security will become more uneven, and South Asian countries could experience significant impacts from global food price volatility.[3]: 1494 

Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat stress over at the North China Plain, which is particularly vulnerable as widespread irrigation results in very moist air. There is a risk that agricultural labourers will be physically unable to work outdoors on hot summer days at the end of the century, particularly under the scenario of greatest emissions and warming.[6]

Historical emissions from Asia are lower than those from Europe and North America. However, China has been the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the 21st century, while India is the third-largest. As a whole, Asia currently accounts for 36% of world's primary energy consumption, which is expected to increase to 48% by 2050. By 2040, it is also expected to account for 80% of the world's coal and 26% of the world's natural gas consumption.[3]: 1468  While the United States remains the world's largest oil consumer, by 2050 it is projected to move to third place, behind China and India.[3]: 1470  While nearly half of the world's new renewable energy capacity is built in Asia,[3]: 1470  this is not yet sufficient in order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. They imply that the renewables would account for 35% of total energy consumption in Asia by 2030.[3]: 1471 

Climate change adaptation is already a reality for many Asian countries, with a wide range of strategies attempted across the continent.[3]: 1534  Important examples include the growing implementation of climate-smart agriculture in certain countries or the "sponge city" planning principles in China.[3]: 1534  While some countries have drawn up extensive frameworks such as the Bangladesh Delta Plan or Japan's Climate Adaptation Act,[3]: 1508  others still rely on localized actions that are not effectively scaled up.[3]: 1534 

Greenhouse gas emissions

See also: Greenhouse gas emissions by China and Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey
Thick haze and smoke along the Ganges River in northern India.

Historical emissions from Asia are lower than those from Europe and North America. However, China has been the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the 21st century, while India is the 3rd-largest, Russia is 4th, while Japan and South Korea rank 5th and 7th.[7] Around 70% of India's energy comes from fossil fuels, while this figure reaches 80-90% in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea.[3]: 1471  As a whole, Asia currently accounts for 36% of world's primary energy consumption, which is expected to increase to 48% by 2050. By 2040, it is also expected to account for 80% of the world's coal and 26% of the world's natural gas consumption.[3]: 1468  While the United States remains the world's largest oil consumer, by 2050 it is projected to move to third place, behind China and India.[3]: 1470 

After 2040, Asia would likely account for over half of the world's electricity consumption, and around 40% will likely be generated from coal burning.[3]: 1470  Asia is expected to import more oil and gas in the future than it does now, and would likely account for 80% of the global energy market in 2050.[3]: 1470  In particular, there are 11 developing countries in Asia which have a large energy consumption yet also lack energy security.[3]: 1470 

Impacts

Warming

By 1975, land temperatures across Asia have already increased since the preindustrial period. Under the low-emission scenario, they will remain similar to present, but will increase substantially with greater emissions[8]
Köppen climate classification map for Central Asia for 1980–2016
2071–2100 map under the worst climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely[9][10][11]

Starting from the 20th century, there has been clear warming across the entire continent. The frequency of cold days and nights decreased, which had also lowered the need for heating.[3]: 1463  Yet, the demand for air conditioning had increased far more as the frequency of hot days and warm nights had also grown, which had also increased the strain on power grids.[3]: 1460  Hot temperature extremes appear to have increased the most in Central and West Asia, while heatwaves in East and South Asia are becoming longer, more frequent and more severe.[3]: 1464 

In 2016 and 2018, Asia has already experienced extreme heat that would have been statistically impossible without climate change.[3]: 1464  New Delhi broke an all-time record when it reached 48 °C (118 °F) in 2018.[12] North Asia has the coldest climate due to its proximity to the Arctic, but it also experiences greater relative warming due to what is known as the arctic amplification.[3]: 1464  This has led to permafrost thaw, which acts as a climate change feedback and also places large quantities of infrastructure at risk of collapse.[3]: 1500 

All of these trends are expected to continue in the future. There will be greater frequency of extreme heatwaves across the continent and heat stress would become more persistent across South Asia. Under the mid-range climate change scenario, parts of West and South Asia would reach "critical health thresholds" for heat stress during the 21st century, and this would also occur in parts of East Asia under the high-emission scenario.[3]: 1465  Growing urbanization in Asia would also subject more people to the urban heat island effect:[3]: 1465  for instance, Hyderabad will likely be the hottest city in the world at the end of the century, with an average annual temperature around 30 °C (86 °F).[3]: 1498  Yet, many rural people are agricultural workers, who are some of the most vulnerable to increasing heat.[3]: 1468  The demand for air conditioning would continue to increase and managing it would become more challenging for the energy infrastructures, which are often already prone to blackouts in many countries on the continent.[3]: 1470  In the Southeast Asia, heat-related deaths under a high-warming scenario could increase by 12.7% by 2100.[3]: 1508 

Water availability

See also: Effects of climate change on the water cycle
Greater warming increases the amount of moisture in the atmosphere over Asia, which directly leads to extreme precipitation. Probability of 20-year, 50-year and 100-year extremes consistently increases with warming across Asia - up to a 7-fold average increase for 100-year extremes under 3 °C (5.4 °F) of warming.[13]

Precipitation trends are more complex than temperature trends. While climate change is generally expected to increase precipitation due to greater evaporation from the oceans, the large increase in anthropogenic sulfate aerosols during most of the 20th century (sometimes described as global dimming) has had an opposite impact, as sulfates cause clouds to retain water for longer before rainfall occurs.[14][15] Rainfall associated with the Monsoon of South Asia[3]: 1464  and East Asian Monsoon had decreased by the end of the 20th century, and this is likely associated with aerosol pollution:[16] there is already evidence of monsoon recovery when the aerosol concentrations decline.[17] Because some clouds from South and East Asia go on to Central Asia, they could increase rainfall there with the same moisture they did not shed during the monsoon, and some evidence supports that.[18]

However, this effect isn't very strong, as the overall rainfall in West and Central Asia had decreased, while drought likelihood had increased. The frequency and intensity of dust storms had increased in this region as well, although this is partly caused by poor land use practices.[3]: 1465  At the same time, heavy precipitation events (defined as 400 mm or more in a day) had increased in South, Southeast and East Asia during the 21st century.[3]: 1464  Over a third of the cities in Asia, with a combined population of around 932 million, are considered at high risk of flooding.[3]: 1532 

Observed glacier mass loss in the Hindu Kush Himalayas region since the 20th century.[19]

Future warming is expected to substantially increase annual precipitation across most of the continent. Monsoon regions would experience more heavy and even intense precipitation (defined as 50mm or more in an hour), making floods substantially more frequent.[3]: 1465  100-year extremes in vapor transport (directly related to extreme precipitation) would become 2.6 times more frequent under 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) of global warming, yet 3.9 and 7.5 times more frequent under 2 °C (3.6 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F).[13] While there has been no significant change in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in Asia since the 1950s,[3]: 1465  category 4-5 TCs are likely to become more frequent under high warming and generate more rainfall.[3]: 1466 

On the contrary, drought frequency is expected to increase in the West and Central Asia.[3]: 1465  Even in the regions where precipitation increases, plants' water losses to evapotranspiration may increase even more, which could still increase the overall agricultural drought frequency.[20] Across the continent, drought conditions would on average increase by between 5% to 20% by 2100.[3]: 1459  Around 2050, populations living in the Amu Darya, Ganges and Indus may be faced with severe water scarcity due to both climate and socioeconomic reasons.[3]: 1486 

Glaciers in the Hindu Kush region feed the water basin of over 220 million people.[3]: 1487  In the Indus River basin alone, they contribute to up to 60% of irrigation outside of the monsoon season.[21] These glaciers have already experienced melting in the 21st century, and it would continue in the future, as up to two-thirds of glacier ice may melt by 2100 under high warming.[3]: 1487  While glacier water supply would likely increase until 2050, it would be permanently diminished afterwards.[3]: 1486  Although the increases in monsoon strength may offset these losses, agriculture in the region would still become more reliant on it than ever before, while hydropower generation would become less predictable and reliable.[22][19][23]

Sea level rise

Matsukawaura Lagoon, located in Fukushima Prefecture of Honshu Island

Between 1901 and 2018, average global sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), an average of 1–2 mm (0.039–0.079 in) per year.[24] This rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022.[25] While the rate of sea level rise in Asia is usually similar to the global average, it has been around 10% faster in the Indo-Pacific region since the 1990s.[3] Future sea level rise on Japan's Honshu Island would be up to 25 cm faster than the global average under RCP8.5, the intense climate change scenario.[3]

Asia has the largest population at risk from sea level. As of 2022, some 63 million people in East and South Asia were already at risk from a 100-year flood. This is largely due to inadequate coastal protection in many countries. This will get much worse in the future. Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam alone account for 70% of people exposed to sea level rise during the 21st century.[3][26] This is due to the dense population on the region's coasts. 2019 research indicated that globally, 150 million will be under the water line during high tide and 300 million will live in zones with flooding every year. By the year 2100, those numbers differ sharply depending on the emission scenario. In a low emission scenario, 140 million will be under water during high tide and 280 million will have flooding each year. In high emission scenario, the numbers reach up to 540 million and 640 million, respectively. Large parts of Ho Chi Minh City, Mumbai, Shanghai, Bangkok and Basra could be inundated.[27][28][29] These figures are, on average, triple that of past estimates, and the increases are even larger for certain Asian countries.

Country Old estimate New estimate
China 29 93
Bangladesh 5 42
India 5 36
Vietnam 9 31
Indonesia 5 23
Thailand 1 12

Modeling results predict that Asia will suffer direct economic damages of US$167.6 billion at 0.47 meters of sea level rise. This rises to US$272.3 billion at 1.12 meters and US$338.1 billion at 1.75 meters. There is an additional indirect impact of US$8.5, 24 or 15 billion from population displacement at those levels. China, India, the Republic of Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Russia experience the largest economic losses.[3] Nations like Bangladesh, Vietnam and China with extensive rice production on the coast are already seeing adverse impacts from saltwater intrusion.[30][31] High-emission RCP8.5 scenario would see the loss of at least one third of Japanese beaches and 57–72% of Thai beaches.[3]

Sea level rise in Bangladesh may force the relocation of up to one third of power plants by 2030. A similar proportion would have to deal with increased salinity of their cooling water. Recent search indicates that by 2050 sea-level rise will displace 0.9-2.1 million people. This would require the creation of about 594,000 new jobs and 197,000 housing units in the areas receiving the displaced persons. It would also be necessary to supply an additional 783 billion calories worth of food.[3] Another paper in 2021 estimated that sea-level rise would displace 816,000 people by 2050. This would increase to 1.3 million when indirect effects are taken into account.[32] Both studies assume that most displaced people would travel to the other areas of Bangladesh. They try to estimate population changes in different places.

2010 estimates of population exposure to sea level rise in Bangladesh
Net Variations in the Population Due to Sea Level Rise in 2050 in Selected Districts.[32]
District Net flux (Davis et al., 2018) Net flux (De Lellis et al., 2021) Rank (Davis et al., 2018)[T2 1] Rank (De Lellis et al., 2021)
Dhaka 207,373 −34, 060 1 11
Narayanganj −95,003 −126,694 2 1
Shariatpur −80,916 −124,444 3 3
Barisal −80,669 −64,252 4 6
Munshiganj −77,916 −124,598 5 2
Madaripur 61,791 −937 6 60
Chandpur −37,711 −70,998 7 4
Jhalakati 35,546 9,198 8 36
Satkhira −32,287 −19,603 9 23
Khulna −28,148 −9,982 10 33
Cox's Bazar −25,680 −16,366 11 24
Bagherat 24,860 12,263 12 28
  1. ^ Refers to the magnitude of population change relative to the other districts.

By 2030, major Indian cities such as Mumbai, Kolkata, Cuttack and Kochi are expected to end up with much of their territory below the tide level.[33] In Mumbai alone, failing to adapt to this would result in damages of US$112–162 billion by 2050, which would nearly triple by 2070.[3] Thus, the authorities are carrying out adaptation projects like the Mumbai Coastal Road, even at the likely expense of local coastal ecosystems and fishing livelihoods.[3] Out of the 20 coastal cities expected to see the highest flood losses by 2050, 13 are in Asia. Nine of these are the so-called sinking cities, where subsidence (typically caused by unsustainable groundwater extraction in the past) would compound sea level rise.[34] These are Bangkok, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Kolkata, Nagoya, Tianjin, Xiamen and Zhanjiang.[3]

By 2050, Guangzhou would see 0.2 meters of sea level rise and estimated annual economic losses of US$254 million – the highest in the world. One estimate calculates that in the absence of adaptation, cumulative economic losses caused by sea level rise in Guangzhou under RCP8.5 would reach about US$331 billion by 2050, US$660 billion by 2070 and US$1.4 trillion by 2100. The impact of high-end ice sheet instability would increase these figures to about US$420 billion, US$840 billion and US$1.8 trillion respectively.[3] In Shanghai, coastal inundation amounts to about 0.03% of local GDP. But this would increase to 0.8% by 2100 even under the "moderate" RCP4.5 scenario in the absence of adaptation.[3] The city of Jakarta is sinking so much (up to 28 cm (11 in) per year between 1982 and 2010 in some areas[35]) that in 2019, the government had committed to relocate the capital of Indonesia to another city.[36]

Natural environment

See also: Effects of climate change on biomes
The distribution of the Korean fir in its core habitat, Mount Hallasan, will decline under the 2 °C (3.6 °F) local warming relative to the present.[37]

Multiple biomes in Asia have already experienced visible shifts in response to climate change. These include changes in growing season length, habitat losses (particularly of the amphibian species[3]: 1473 ) or greater invasive species frequency.[3]: 1476  Many animal species have been observed to move into warming areas to the north.[3]: 1473  In Siberia, tundra extent shrinks as it is gradually replaced by boreal forest (taiga).[3]: 1472  At the same time, wildfires have also become more severe in Siberia, although this is partly connected to increased pressure from mineral exploration and illegal logging.[3]: 1474  Greater warming has also generally made it easier for trees to move into the previously unsuitable mountain areas, and this trend is expected to continue in the future.[3]: 1472  This could also result in existing mountain ecosystems, such as the Korean fir forests, getting replaced by more temperate ones.[3]: 1475 

Some freshwater fish species will lose parts of their range.[3]: 1477  Many marine and coastal ecosystems at risk of irreversible loss after just of warming. Notable examples include coastal seagrass meadows, which are deteriorating at the rate of 7%/year, and the mangrove forests, 42% of which are in Asia.[3]: 1480  By 2018, over 60% of Asia's past mangrove extent and 40% of coral reefs had already been lost.[3]: 1482  At the same tide, "golden tide" blooms of Sargassum horneri might become more frequent.[3]: 1481 

In the South China Sea alone, there are nearly 600 coral species, and they have been severely impacted by climate change and other human activities.[3]: 1478  In general, the remaining coral reefs will experience irreversible losses soon after 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) of warming.[4][5] That Coral Triangle is considered one of the 12 "priority" ecosystems in Asia, and research shows that they could lose up to 26% of their species under 2 °C (3.6 °F), and up to 56% under 4.5 °C (8.1 °F) warming.[3]: 1476 

Some of the species in the Coral Triangle region. Clockwise from the left: Table coral Acropora latistella, sea slug Nembrotha kubaryana, Mobula ray, green sea turtle, Christmas tree worms (Spirobranchus giganteus) and a Parrotfish
Percentage of species at risk of disappearing from certain regions by 2080s[3]: 1476 
Region 2 °C (3.6 °F) 4.5 °C (8.1 °F)
Altai-Sayan 18.6 37
Amur 14.2 35.6
Borneo 17.6 36.8
Coral Triangle 19.2 41.8
Eastern Himalayas 12.2 29
Greater Black Sea 26.2 56
Lake Baikal 22.8 49.5
Mekong River 26.4 55.2
New Guinea 19.8 41.2
Sumatra 16.8 37
Western Ghats 18.8 41.67
Yangtze River 20 42.6

Agriculture, economy and society

Under the highest-emission scenario, many Asian countries would see substantial reductions in seafood available from their exclusive economic zones by 2050[38]

In 2019, Asia as a whole was estimated to have 400 million people living in extreme poverty (below 1.9$/day), and 1.2 billion below 3.2$/day.[3]: 1468  It also accounts for two-thirds of the world's agricultural production[3]: 1490  and nearly three-quarters of the fisheries and aquaculture output.[3]: 1491  In India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, around 56%, 43% and 50% of the population work in agriculture, respectively.[39][40] Even so, 11.4% of Asia's population (515 million people) were undernourished in 2017, which is the largest fraction in the world.[3]: 1508  While total food production to date had been increasing, climate risks to agriculture and food security are expected to accelerate after 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) is exceeded.[3]: 1490 

These risks will be regionally uneven, as food security is expected to improve in some countries or even country sub-regions, while declining in others.[3]: 1494  For instance, coral reefs support 1.5 million fishers in the Indian Ocean and 3.35 million in the Southeast Asia, yet they are highly vulnerable to even low-emission climate change.[3]: 1479  Southeast Asia may lose around 30% of its aquaculture area and 10-20% of production by 2050-2070.[3]: 1491  Major agricultural pests such as Colorado potato beetle and Ixodes ricinus have been able to expand their range,[3]: 1473  and other expansions, such as those of locusts and the golden apple snail are expected in the future.[3]: 1475  Livestock production in the South Asia region and the country of Mongolia is highly vulnerable to climate change.[3]: 1493  Global food price spikes and market volatility threaten to affect sociopolitical stability.[3]: 1494 

Economic impacts of climate change under high emissions (orange) are estimated to be greater compared to low emissions (blue) after around 2050 (dashed lines) at 1% statistical significance in Middle East, South, Southeast and East Asia, no statistical difference found for Central Asia/Russia region[41]

In the absence of intervention, malaria incidence could nearly double by 2050 in northern China, and over 100 million people are likely to become exposed to malaria in the near future. Infectious diarrhoea mortality and dengue fever incidence in South Asia is likely to increase as well.[3]: 1508  Under the high-emission scenario, 40 million people in South Asia (nearly 2% of the population) may be driven to internal migration by 2050 due to climate change.[3]: 1469  Some research suggests that South Asia would lose 2% of its GDP to climate change by 2050, while these losses would approach 9% by the end of the century under the most intense climate change scenario.[3]: 1468 

In the 2017 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, Bangladesh and Pakistan ranked sixth and seventh respectively as the countries most affected by climate change in the period from 1996 to 2015, while India ranked fourth among the list of countries most affected by climate change in 2015.[42] India is estimated to have the world's highest social cost of carbon - meaning that it experiences the greatest impact from greenhouse gas emissions.[43] Other estimates describe Bangladesh as the country most likely to be the worst-affected.[44][45][46]

Mitigation

Dau Tieng Solar Power Project, a solar power farm in Tân Châu, Vietnam.

Nearly half of the world's new renewable energy capacity is built in Asia.[3]: 1470  India is known to have a large potential for solar power generation which is currently largely unfulfilled.[3]: 1472  Nuclear power is also expected to become increasingly prominent in Asia. In particular, nuclear power generation in China will likely be equivalent to that of the OECD countries in 2040. Significant growth is also expected in India and Russia.[3]: 1470 

Asian countries have also undertaken various mitigation commitments. For instance, India has, as of 2019, promised to cut its emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33-35% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.[47] However, these efforts are not currently sufficient in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. The most likely way to fulfil them on the continental scale would be to have the renewables account for 35% of total energy consumption in Asia by 2030.[3]: 1471 


Adaptation

Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed at the launch of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor in 2009.

Across Asia, countries and stakeholders are already undertaking a range of adaptation actions. For instance, the National Diet of Japan had passed an official Climate Change Adaptation Act in 2018,[3]: 1508  while Bangladesh has drawn up an extensive Bangladesh Delta Plan which covers all future development in the context of climate adaptation and would be funded by 2.5% of the annual GDP.[3]: 1513  Regional forums such as the Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaption Information Platform (AP-PLAT) also exist.[48] In China, the so-called sponge cities are designed to increase the area of green spaces and permeable pavings to help deal with flash floods from precipitation extremes.[3]: 1504 

At the same time, many adaptation measures are still limited to preparatory steps.[3]: 1459  In India, city, district and state governments have been creating Heat Action Plans, but as of 2023, most of them remain unfunded.[49] The Bangladesh Delta Plan was also reported to be falling short of most of its initial targets as of 2020.[50] Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in the world, but their climate mitigation efforts have been described as not commensurate with the climate risks faced.[51]

Numerous changes have taken place in the agriculture sector in an effort to adapt to climate change - ranging from interventions like irrigation to a set of practices known as climate-smart agriculture.[3]: 1495  However, other interventions such as an increase in agricultural insurance coverage are also necessary.[3]: 1497  Natural environment can be helped to adapt to climate change by increasing the extent of protected areas and providing habitat corridors to facilitate the dispersal of vulnerable species.[3]: 1478  Mangrove restoration programs exist and tend to be effective.[3]: 1483 

By region

Central Asia

East Asia

North Asia

Southeast Asia

South Asia

West Asia

Further information: Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa

References

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