Ambiguity effect

The ambiguity effect is a cognitive tendency where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or "ambiguity".[1] The effect implies that people tend to select options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is known, over an option for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown. The effect was first described by Daniel Ellsberg in 1961.[2]

Example

As an example, consider a bucket containing 30 balls. The balls are either red, black or white. Ten of the balls are red, and the remaining 20 are either black or white, with all combinations of black and white being equally likely. In option X, drawing a red ball wins a person $100, and in option Y, drawing a black ball wins them $100. The probability of picking a winning ball is the same for both options X and Y. In option X, the probability of selecting a winning ball is 1 in 3 (10 red balls out of 30 total balls). In option Y, despite the fact that the number of black balls is uncertain, the probability of selecting a winning ball is also 1 in 3. This is because the number of black balls is equally distributed among all possibilities between 0 and 20. The difference between the two options is that in option X, the probability of a favorable outcome is known, but in option Y, the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown ("ambiguous").

In spite of the equal probability of a favorable outcome, people have a greater tendency to select a ball under option X, where the probability of selecting a winning ball is perceived to be more certain. The uncertainty as to the number of black balls means that option Y tends to be viewed less favorably. Despite the fact that there could possibly be twice as many black balls as red balls, people tend not to want to take the opposing risk that there may be fewer than 10 black balls. The "ambiguity" behind option Y means that people tend to favor option X, even when the probability is the same.

Explanation

One possible explanation of the effect is that people have a rule of thumb (heuristic) to avoid options where information is missing.[3][4] This will often lead them to seek out the missing information. In many cases, though, the information cannot be obtained. The effect is often the result of calling some particular missing piece of information to the person's attention.

See also

References

  1. ^ Croskerry, Pat; Cosby, Karen S. (2009). Patient Safety in Emergency Medicine. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. p. 220. ISBN 978-0-7817-7727-8.
  2. ^ Borcherding, Katrin; Laričev, Oleg Ivanovič; Messick, David M. (1990). Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North-Holland. p. 50. ISBN 978-0-444-88618-7.
  3. ^ Frisch, Deborah; Baron, Jonathan (1988). "Ambiguity and rationality". Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 1 (3): 149–157. doi:10.1002/bdm.3960010303.
  4. ^ Ritov, Ilana; Baron, Jonathan (1990). "Reluctance to vaccinate: Omission bias and ambiguity". Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 3 (4): 263–277. doi:10.1002/bdm.3960030404.

Read other articles:

Lambang Arab Saudi

Lambang nasional Arab Saudi (Arab: شعار السعوديةcode: ar is deprecated ) digunakan tahun 1950.[1] Sesuai Konstitusi Saudi[2] lambang ini terdiri dari dua pedang yang bersilangan dengan sebatang pohon Kurma di ruang terbuka di antara pedang-pedang tersebut. Pedang-pedang melambangkan dua daerah, Hijaz dan Nejd yang disatukan di bawah Ibn Saud pada tahun 1926.[3] Catatan kaki ^ Flags of the World, Saudi Arabia page ^ Saudi Basic Law of Government, Article 4....

 

Université catholique Jean-Paul II de Lublin

Université catholique Jean-Paul II de LublinHistoireFondation 1918StatutType Université catholique conventionnée avec l'ÉtatNom officiel Katolicki Uniwersytet Lubelski Jana Pawła II (depuis 2005)Universitas Catholica Lublinensis Ioannis Pauli II (en latin)Régime linguistique Polonais et anglaisFondateur Idzi Radziszewski (pl)Recteur Stanislaw Wilk SDB (2004-2012)[1]Antoni Dębiński (depuis 2012)[2]Devise Deo et Patriae (« Pour Dieu et la Patrie »)Membre de Association ...

 

Teknik kelautan

Artikel ini tidak memiliki referensi atau sumber tepercaya sehingga isinya tidak bisa dipastikan. Tolong bantu perbaiki artikel ini dengan menambahkan referensi yang layak. Tulisan tanpa sumber dapat dipertanyakan dan dihapus sewaktu-waktu.Cari sumber: Teknik kelautan – berita · surat kabar · buku · cendekiawan · JSTOR Oil Rig Teknik kelautan (Inggris: Ocean engineering) adalah cabang ilmu teknik atau rekayasa yang mempelajari bangunan dan struktur yan...

Garis waktu Buddhisme

Bagian dari seri tentangBuddhisme SejarahPenyebaran Sejarah Garis waktu Sidang Buddhis Jalur Sutra Benua Asia Tenggara Asia Timur Asia Tengah Timur Tengah Dunia Barat Australia Oseania Amerika Eropa Afrika Populasi signifikan Tiongkok Thailand Jepang Myanmar Sri Lanka Vietnam Kamboja Korea Taiwan India Malaysia Laos Indonesia Amerika Serikat Singapura AliranTradisi Buddhisme prasektarian Aliran Buddhis awal Mahāsāṃghika Sthaviravāda Aliran arus utama Theravāda Mahāyāna Vajrayāna Kons...

 

Belinda Clark

Australian cricketer Belinda ClarkAOPersonal informationFull nameBelinda Jane ClarkBorn (1970-09-10) 10 September 1970 (age 53)Newcastle, New South Wales, AustraliaBattingRight-handedBowlingRight-arm off breakRoleBatterInternational information National sideAustralia (1991–2005)Test debut (cap 119)26 January 1991 v IndiaLast Test24 August 2005 v EnglandODI debut (cap 66)17 January 1991 v New ZealandLast ODI1 September 2005 v...

 

Grand Prix Maroko

Halaman ini berisi artikel tentang balapan mobil. Untuk turnamen golf, lihat Hassan II Golf Trophy. Untuk turnamen tennis, lihat Grand Prix Hassan II. Grand Prix MarokoSirkuit Anfa (1930–1934)Sirkuit Agadir (1954–1956)Sirkuit Ain-Diab (1957–1958)Informasi lombaJumlah gelaran13Pertama digelar1925Terakhir digelar1958Terbanyak menang (pembalap)no repeat winnersTerbanyak menang (konstruktor) Bugatti (4)Panjang sirkuit7.618 km (4.724 mi)Jarak tempuh403.754 km (250.37 mi)L...

Geology of Ceres

Geologic structure and composition of Ceres This article needs to be updated. The reason given is: Missing information on possible subsurface brine ocean. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (April 2024) Dawn spacecraft view of Occator Crater on Ceres in enhanced color, this image was taken on 4 May 2015.[1] The geology of Ceres consists of the characteristics of the surface, the crust and the interior of the dwarf planet Ceres...

 

哈萨克斯坦总统

此条目序言章节没有充分总结全文内容要点。 (2019年3月21日)请考虑扩充序言，清晰概述条目所有重點。请在条目的讨论页讨论此问题。 哈萨克斯坦總統哈薩克總統旗現任Қасым-Жомарт Кемелұлы Тоқаев卡瑟姆若马尔特·托卡耶夫自2019年3月20日在任任期7年首任努尔苏丹·纳扎尔巴耶夫设立1990年4月24日（哈薩克蘇維埃社會主義共和國總統） 哈萨克斯坦 哈萨克斯坦政府...

 

Tiger and Turtle – Magic Mountain

Art installation in Germany Tiger and Turtle – Magic Mountain Tiger and Turtle – Magic Mountain is an art installation and landmark in Duisburg, Germany, built in 2011.[1][2] It was designed by Ulrich Genth and Heike Mutter. It resembles a roller coaster, but it is a walkway with stairs. Its vertical loop continues the walkway and stairs, but it is unwalkable and is blocked off. In 2013, Tiger and Turtle – Magic Mountain was ranked as #6 on HuffPost's list of Most Extrem...

Buddhism in Pakistan

Overview of the historical role and impact of Buddhism in Pakistan Standing Buddha from Gandhara, 1st–2nd century CE (Peshawar basin, Pakistan) Buddhism in Pakistan took root some 2,300 years ago under the Mauryan king Ashoka who sent missionaries to the Kashmira-Gandhara region of North West Pakistan extending into Afghanistan, following the Third Buddhist council in Pataliputra (modern India).[1][2][3] Buddhism first reached what is now Pakistan during Ashoka’s r...

 

Gospel

Disambiguazione – Se stai cercando altri significati, vedi Gospel (disambigua). Questa voce o sezione sull'argomento musica è priva o carente di note e riferimenti bibliografici puntuali. Sebbene vi siano una bibliografia e/o dei collegamenti esterni, manca la contestualizzazione delle fonti con note a piè di pagina o altri riferimenti precisi che indichino puntualmente la provenienza delle informazioni. Puoi migliorare questa voce citando le fonti più precisamente. Segui i suggeri...

 

Vimmerby Hockey

Vimmerby HockeyHemortVimmerbyGrundad1993[1]HemmaplanArena Hansson Konsult & KonstruktionMeriter● Svenska mästare0● Svenska mästerskapsfinaler0Nuvarande säsongHockeyallsvenskan 2024/2025 Vimmerby Hockey, även Vimmerby HC, är en ishockeyförening från Vimmerby bildad 1993 efter att Vimmerby IF lagt ner sin ishockeysektion. Säsongen 2010/2011 påbörjades en satsning mot Division 1 vilket gav resultat. Vimmerby gick upp till division 1 säsongen efteråt. Säsongen 2023/2024 gick ...

Mutiny

Disobeying of superiors For other uses, see Mutiny (disambiguation). Mutineers redirects here. For other uses, see Mutineer (disambiguation). Army Mutiny redirects here. For the 1924 event in the Irish Free State, see Irish Army Mutiny. Mutiny! redirects here. For the debut studio album by American rock band Set Your Goals, see Mutiny! (Set Your Goals album). The mutiny on the Bounty was one of the most famous instances of mutiny which took place at sea. Mutiny is a revolt among a group of pe...

 

Китсап (полуостров)

У этого термина существуют и другие значения, см. Китсап. Китсапангл. Kitsap Peninsula Расположение 47°34′00″ с. ш. 122°46′59″ з. д.HGЯO Страна США ШтатВашингтон Китсап Китсап Китсап (англ. Kitsap Peninsula) — полуостров в штате Вашингтон. Содержание 1 История 2 География 3 Н...

 

1984 (roman)

Nineteen Eighty-Four Pour les articles homonymes, voir 1984 (homonymie). Si ce bandeau n'est plus pertinent, retirez-le. Cliquez ici pour en savoir plus. L'introduction de cet article contient trop de références et n'est pas conforme aux recommandations (juin 2024). Le résumé introductif devrait être un résumé des informations contenues dans l'article, où les références devraient se trouver, de préférence à l'introduction. — Découvrez comment faire pour en améliorer la rédac...

Battle of Jenipapo

This article has multiple issues. Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page. (Learn how and when to remove these messages) This article includes a list of general references, but it lacks sufficient corresponding inline citations. Please help to improve this article by introducing more precise citations. (September 2012) (Learn how and when to remove this message) This article may need to be rewritten to comply with Wikipedia's quality standards. You can help. The talk p...

 

Robert Dennison (politician)

British politician (1879–1951) Dennison in 1924 Robert Dennison (14 December 1879 – 10 November 1951) was a British Labour Party politician. Born in Glasgow, Dennison attended a Science School in the city. In 1912, he was elected to Stockton-on-Tees Town Council, for the Labour Party, serving until 1917. Also in 1912, he began working full-time for a trade union, a predecessor of the Iron and Steel Trades Confederation.[1] Dennison stood unsuccessfully in Walsall at the 1922 UK ge...

 

日本歯科大学

日本歯科大学 飯田橋キャンパス大学設置 1947年創立 1907年学校種別 私立設置者 学校法人日本歯科大学本部所在地 東京都千代田区富士見1-9-20北緯35度41分52.12秒 東経139度44分44.82秒 / 北緯35.6978111度 東経139.7457833度 / 35.6978111; 139.7457833座標: 北緯35度41分52.12秒 東経139度44分44.82秒 / 北緯35.6978111度 東経139.7457833度 / 35.6978111; 139.7457833キャンパス...

Gustavo Campanharo

Gustavo CampanharoCampanharo con la maglia dell'Évian TG nel 2016Nazionalità Brasile Altezza178 cm Peso75 kg Calcio RuoloCentrocampista Squadra Atl. Goianiense CarrieraGiovanili 20??-2011 Juventude Squadre di club1 2009-2011 Juventude21 (0)[1]2011-2012→  Fiorentina0 (0)2012-2013 Juventude1 (0)[2]2013-2014 Bragantino31 (1)[3]2014-2015→  Verona15 (0)2015-2016→  Évian TG32 (3)2016-2019 Ludogorec69 (6)2019-2020...

 

Presidential Guard (South Vietnam)

Presidential GuardLữ đoàn Liên binh phòng vệ Tổng Thống PhủForces shirt insigniaActive1955–1975Country South VietnamAllegiancePresident of South VietnamBranch Army of the Republic of VietnamRolePresidential guardSize~2,500Garrison/HQCộng Hòa barracks, SaigonEngagements1960 South Vietnamese coup attempt 1962 South Vietnamese Independence Palace bombing 1963 South Vietnamese coup d'étatCommandersNotablecommandersLê Quang TungLê Ngọc TriểnNguyễn Hữu DuệP...