2024 Washington Initiative 2124

Initiative 2124
November 5, 2024
This measure would provide that employees and self-employed people must elect to keep coverage under RCW 50B.04 and could opt-out any time. It would also repeal a law governing an exemption for employees.
Results
Choice
 Votes %
✔ Yes 1,668,435 44.54%
✖ No 2,077,216 55.46%
Valid votes 3,745,651 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 0 0.00%
Total votes 3,745,651 100.00%

Initiative No. 2124 (I-2124) was a ballot initiative in the US State of Washington that appeared on the November 5, 2024 ballot. The initiative, if passed, would have made participation in Washington's state-run long term health insurance program (WA Cares) voluntary rather than mandatory.[1] The initiative was one of six brought to the state legislature by Let's Go Washington, a Redmond-based political action committee founded by businessman and hedge fund manager Brian Heywood.[2]

Background

The program known as WA Cares has its roots in the Long-Term Services and Supports Trust Act (Trust Act), which the Washington state legislature passed in 2019.[3] WA Cares is a program is a first-in-the-nation program that provides coverage for long term care costs for Washingtonians, though with a lifetime maximum benefit that started at $36,500 (and whose cap was indexed to inflation).[4][5] Under the Trust Act, all workers in the state would be required to contribute to the program unless they had acquired private long term care insurance by 2021.[4] Workers pay a 0.58% tax on their income (which began in July 2023) and become eligible for the benefits in July of 2026.[6]

WA Cares became one of six issues selected by the Let's Go Washington PAC in 2023 to be included in an initiative petition campaign.[2] The argument made by the organization was that the existing benefit was inadequate to meet citizen needs and that the benefits were not portable.[7] A total of 2.6 million signatures were collected across the 6 issues, including the WA Cares repeal effort, which cleared 324,516 signature threshold required for issue consideration for the 2024 election cycle.[8] I-2124 was the last of the six initiatives to be submitted for consideration.[9] I-2124 was certified by the Secretary of State on January 23, 2024, and introduced to the state legislature on January 29, 2024.[10][11] In February of 2024, Democratic legislative leaders ruled out any movement on I-2124 in the legislature itself, putting the initiative on track for consideration by the public during the 2024 general election.[12][13]

Language and impact

I-2117 placed the following question before the citizens of Washington:[14]

Initiative Measure No. 2124 concerns state long term care insurance.

This measure would provide that employees and self-employed people must elect to keep coverage under RCW 50B.04 and could opt-out any time. It would also repeal a law governing an exemption for employees.

Should this measure be enacted into law? Yes [ ] No [ ]

If passed, I-2124 would have created an opt-out option which would repeal the payroll tax for those opting out but also make them ineligible for the benefit.[15] However, the decrease in payroll tax revenues could create what some insurers call a "death spiral", causing the program to become insolvent within a few years of beginning to pay out benefits.[15]

Support for I-2124

As of October 31, 2024, Let's Go Washington and the Taxpayers Accountability Alliance are registered as sponsors of the initiative.[16]

Opposition to I-2124

As of October 31, 2024, the 45th district Democratic Party, the AARP No on I-2124 Committee, Defend Washington, Fuse Voters, the No on 2124 PAC, Protect Washington, the SEIU 775 Ballot Fund, and the Stop Greed PAC are registered as opponents of the initiative.[16]

Public opinion on I-2124

Poll Sponsor Dates Margin of Error Mode Sample Size Support Oppose Undecided
SurveyUSA[17] Seattle Times, KING-TV, & UW Center for an Informed Public Oct 9–14, 2024 ± 5% Online 703 LV 28% 49% 23%
Elway[18] Cascade PBS Oct 8–12, 2024 ± 5% Live Phone & Text 401 LV 45% 33% 22%
Elway[19] Cascade PBS Sep 3–6, 2024 ± 5% Live Phone & Text 403 RV 39% 33% 27%
SurveyUSA[20] Seattle Times, KING-TV, & UW Center for an Informed Public July 10–13, 2024 ± 5% Online 708 LV 52% 27% 22%
Scott Rasmussen National Survey[21] May 20–23, 2024 ± 3.5% 800 RV 58% 29% 14%
Elway Cascade PBS May 13–16, 2024 ± 5% Live Phone & Text 403 RV 47% 25% 28%
GBAO Strategies[22] Defend Washington April 11–14, 2024 ± 4% Live Phone & Text 600 LV 41% 49% 10%

Results

I-2124 failed with less than 45% of ballots cast in favor.[23]

References

  1. ^ Stang, John. "Initiative 2124 would make the WA Cares insurance tax optional | Cascade PBS". www.cascadepbs.org. Retrieved 2024-10-15.
  2. ^ a b "Meet the hedge fund manager upending WA politics with 6 voter initiatives". The Seattle Times. 2024-01-28. Retrieved 2024-10-15.
  3. ^ "LTSS Trust Commission | WA Cares Fund". wacaresfund.wa.gov. Retrieved 2024-10-15.
  4. ^ a b "If you leave WA, you could still be eligible for WA Cares. But the program faces a ballot test". The Seattle Times. 2024-02-21. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  5. ^ Santos, Melissa (October 7, 2024). "I-2124 would make Washington's long-term care program optional". Axios Seattle. Retrieved October 31, 2024.
  6. ^ Demkovich, Laurel (2024-05-07). "WA decides: Initiative 2124 to make the state's long-term care program optional • Washington State Standard". Washington State Standard. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  7. ^ Lotmore, Mario (2023-12-29). "Let's Go Washington turns in over 2.6 million signatures for all six landmark initiatives". Lynnwood Times. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  8. ^ "Effort to repeal WA capital gains tax, other initiatives move forward". The Seattle Times. 2023-12-29. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  9. ^ O’Sullivan, Joseph. "Six measures Washington conservatives are pushing on 2024 ballots | Cascade PBS". www.cascadepbs.org. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  10. ^ "WA's capital gains tax one step closer to November ballot". The Seattle Times. 2024-01-23. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  11. ^ "Washington State Legislature". app.leg.wa.gov. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  12. ^ "Repeals of WA capital gains tax, climate policy take step toward November ballot". The Seattle Times. 2024-02-14. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  13. ^ "Lawmakers won't act on WA long-term care ballot initiative". The Seattle Times. 2024-02-16. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  14. ^ "Initiatives & Referendums - Elections & Voting - WA Secretary of State". www.sos.wa.gov. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  15. ^ a b "What happens if voters decide to make WA Cares optional". The Seattle Times. 2024-10-28. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  16. ^ a b "Committees | Washington State Public Disclosure Commission (PDC)". www.pdc.wa.gov. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  17. ^ "New poll shows where WA voters stand on 3 key initiatives". Seattle Times. 2024-10-21. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  18. ^ Buhain, Venice. "WA voters poised to reject two initiatives, accept other two | Cascade PBS". Cascade PBS. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  19. ^ Sowersby, Shauna. "Washington ballot initiatives lose ground with voters in new poll | Cascade PBS". Cascade PBS. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  20. ^ "SurveyUSA News Poll #27198". SurveyUSA. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  21. ^ Square, Brett Davis | The Center (2024-06-19). "Poll indicates voter support for three initiatives on Washington's fall ballot". The Center Square. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  22. ^ GBAO (May 14, 2024). "Poll Analysis: WA Voters Reject Heywood Initiatives". Politico.
  23. ^ "Official Canvass of the Returns" (PDF). Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved 4 December 2024.