During a political crisis in Pakistan after the successful no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, another motion of no confidence was filed against Chief MinisterUsman Buzdar, as well as against Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Dost Muhammad Mazari, the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the Provincial Assembly, respectively. Buzdar resigned before a vote on the motion of no confidence could be held and as a consequence, an election for a new Chief Minister was scheduled on 16 April between PML(N)'s Hamza Shahbaz, the joint candidate of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), and PML(Q)'s Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the joint candidate of his party and PTI. On the day of the election, 25 PTI MPAs crossed the floor to support Shahbaz, violating party policy. During the very beginning of the Assembly session on 16 April, a riot began between PTI and PML-N supporters. PTI MPAs threw ewers at the Deputy Speaker, as well as slapping him. The police entered the Assembly for the first time in its history and arrested 3 MPAs.[6] The Deputy Speaker then presided over the Assembly session in the visitors gallery and declared Shahbaz the winner by securing 197 votes.[7]
After the floor crossing, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) de-seated 25 dissident PTI MPAs for defection in the light of Article 63-A of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on 20 May 2022.[8] Five of these MPAs were elected on reserved seats (3 for women and 2 for minorities) and new PTI MPAs were notified on these seats on 7 July.[9]
By-elections were held on 17 July 2022 to elect the remaining 20 members. The PTI won in a landslide, emerging victorious on 15 of those 20 seats, leading to the collapse of Chief Minister Hamza Shahbaz'sPML-N led coalition government, as their coalition became 7 seats short of a majority.[10] Elahi took oath as the Chief Minister of Punjab on 27 July 2022, leading a PTI-PML(Q) coalition government.
On 12 January 2023, after winning a vote of confidence the night before, Elahi sent a letter to GovernorBaligh Ur Rehman, advising him to dissolve the Provincial Assembly. Rehman excused himself from the dissolution process and after 48 hours, the Assembly automatically stood dissolved. Elections must be conducted within 90 days of the dissolution, meaning by or before 14 April 2023.[11][12]
On 10 February 2023, after weeks of no announcement of an election date, the Lahore High Court (LHC) ordered the ECP to immediately announce the date for the elections to "ensure that [they] are held not later than ninety days as per the mandate of the Constitution".[14]
On 20 February 2023, the ECP had still not announced the date for the election. Therefore, PresidentArif Alvi decided to unilaterally appoint 9 April 2023 as the election date.[15]
On 1 March 2023, in a 3-2 split verdict, the Supreme Court ruled that President Alvi's order of appointing an election date was "constitutionally competent", as the Assembly was dissolved without the order of Governor Rehman. However, the verdict further stated that due to the delays in the announcement of the election date, 9 April may not be a feasible election date. Therefore, the ECP was ordered to immediately propose a date with the "minimum possible delay" to the President and after consultation, the latter shall announce a date for the election.[16][17]
As a result of the verdict, on 3 March 2023, the ECP had suggested the dates of 30 April to 7 May to President Alvi and on the same day, the latter announced that the provincial election will be held on 30 April 2023.[18]
On 22 March 2023, in violation of the Supreme Court's verdict, the ECP postponed the provincial election to 8 October 2023, stating that it had arrived at the conclusion that it could not hold the elections "honestly, justly, fairly, in a peaceful manner and in a accordance with the Constitution and law".[19]
On 25 March 2023, Sibtain Khan, the Speaker of the Provincial Assembly of Punjab, filed a constitutional petition on behalf of the PTI against the ECP's decision. Additionally, a contempt of court petition was also filed against the ECP.[20] On 4 April, the Supreme Court ruled that the ECP's decision to postpone the polls was unconstitutional and itself fixed 14 May 2023 as the new date for the election.[21]
Despite the orders of the Supreme Court, the ECP had not conducted the elections on 14 May and had instead petitioned the Supreme Court to review its 4 April decision, claiming that they "[don't] have the authority to give the date of elections".[22]
Ban on PTI from contesting as a party
On 22 December 2023, the ECP decided against letting the PTI retain its electoral symbol, arguing that the party had failed to hold intra-party elections. On 22 December, the PTI approached the Peshawar High Court (PHC) against the ECP's order and hence, a single-member bench suspended the ECP's order until 9 January 2024. On 30 December 2023, the ECP filed a review application within the PHC, and days later, a two-member bench withdrew the suspension order as it heard the case. However, on 10 January 2024, the two-member bench had declared the ECP's order to be "illegal, without any lawful authority, and of no legal effect. On 11 January, the ECP challenged this ruling in the Supreme Court, and on 13 January, a three-member bench ruled in favor of the ECP and stripped the PTI of its electoral symbol. As a consequence of this ruling, the PTI could not allot party tickets to any of its candidates. Therefore, all candidates of the party will be listed as independent candidates and each will have a different electoral symbol.[23]
Dates of filing Nomination papers with the Returning Officers by the candidates
20 December 2023 to 24 December 2023
3
Publication of names of the nominated candidates.
24 December 2023
4
Last date of scrutiny of nomination papers by the Returning Officer
25 December 2023 to 30 December 2023
5
Last date of filing appeals against decisions of the Returning Officer rejecting/accepting nomination papers.
3 January 2024
6
Last date for deciding of appeals by the Appellate Tribunal
10 January 2024
7
Publication of revised list of candidates
11 January 2024
8
Last date of withdrawal of candidate and publication of revised list of candidates
12 January 2024
9
Allotment of election symbol to contesting candidates
13 January 2024
10
Date of Polling and Counting of Votes
8 February 2024
Electoral system
The 371 seats of the Punjab Assembly consist of 297 general seats, whose members are elected by the first-past-the-post voting system runs through single-member constituencies. 66 seats are reserved for women and 8 seats are reserved for non-Muslims. The members on these seats are elected through proportional representation based on the total number of general seats secured by each political party.
Campaign
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
Joining of former PML(Q) MPAs
A day after the Assembly was dissolved, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML(Q)) Punjab president and outgoing Chief Minister, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, hinted at a possible merger of the PML(Q) with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). As a consequence, the president of the PML(Q) and former Prime Minister, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who is also Elahi's cousin, issued him a show-cause notice and suspended his party membership. On the other hand, the office-bearers of the PML(Q)'s electoral college authorized Elahi to take decisions on behalf of the party, in regards to the potential merger.[25]
On 21 February 2023, after failing in his attempts to merge the PML(Q) with the PTI, Elahi, along with all other nine former PML(Q) MPAs, joined the PTI.[26]
General campaign
The PTI announced that it would start its election campaign on 8 March 2023. Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister and the Chairman of the PTI, stated that party workers will start arranging corner meetings and rallies across all districts of Punjab. Khan also said that he will suggest solutions to problems caused by the incumbent PDM-led federal government.[27][28]
On 8 March 2023, the PTI attempted to start its campaign by taking out a rally from Khan's residence at Zaman Park to Data Darbar. However, just prior to the start of the rally, a ban on public gatherings was imposed in the provincial capital of Lahore and dozens were taken into police custody for violating the ban. Due to the increased violence, Khan called off the rally. One PTI worker, Ali Bilal, also lost his life in the violence, with Khan claiming the Punjab police had murdered Bilal.[29]
On 12 March 2023, Khan once more announced to hold a rally in Lahore but a ban on public gatherings by the PTI was again imposed in the city. The PTI was finally allowed to hold the rally on 13 March 2023 starting from Khan's residence at Zaman Park to Data Darbar. Moreover, in his address to thousands of party workers and rally attendees, Khan announced that the party would hold a grand "power show" at the Minar-e-Pakistan on 19 March.[30][31][32]
On 25 March, after two postponements, the PTI held its public rally at the Minar-e-Pakistan. Imran Khan had delivered a lengthy speech where he outlined a 10-point programme which he said would pull Pakistan out of its economic crisis. This programme included policies such as promoting tourism, expanding the minerals sector, reintroducing welfare programs, and enlarging the tax net.[35]
On 20 April, the PTI had finalised a list candidates for most of the 297 constituencies of the Provincial Assembly.[36]
The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and the scheduled snap election called by ECP is postponed by Central Government to coincide with General Elections on 8 Feb 2024
^66 seats are reserved for women and 8 are reserved for non-Muslims filled through Proportional representation
^This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
^ abcdThis poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.
