2024 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun federal by-election

2024 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by-election

← 2021 September 16, 2024 (2024-09-16) 2025 →

Riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
Turnout39.66% (Decrease 20.94)
  First party Second party
 
LPC
Candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé Laura Palestini
Party Bloc Québécois Liberal
Popular vote 8,884 8,636
Percentage 28.02% 27.23%
Swing Increase 5.93 pp Decrease 15.69 pp

  Third party Fourth party
 
NDP
CPC
Candidate Craig Sauvé Louis Ialenti
Party New Democratic Conservative
Popular vote 8,262 3,676
Percentage 26.05% 11.59%
Swing Increase 6.70 pp Increase 4.14 pp

LaSalle-Emard-Verdun By-Election Results

MP before election

David Lametti
Liberal

Elected MP

Louis-Philippe Sauvé
Bloc Québécois

A by-election was held in the federal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in Quebec, Canada, on September 16, 2024, following the resignation of incumbent Liberal MP David Lametti.

While the riding was considered a "stronghold" for the Liberals, the by-election was expected by some to be a close race between the Liberals and the NDP, who ran "well known" Montreal city councillor Craig Sauvé.[1] The by-election was expected to be a three-way marginal with the Bloc Québécois also having strong support in the riding.[2]

The by-election was held on the same day as one in Elmwood—Transcona in Manitoba and was considered a test for the government of Justin Trudeau.[3] After results were announced, Trudeau said that his party had "a lot of work to do".[4][5]

Background

The riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun was vacated on February 1, 2024, following the resignation of Liberal MP David Lametti.[6] Lametti, who previously served as Minister of Justice and Attorney General in the government of Justin Trudeau, won the seat in 2015.

Constituency

The constituency is an urban Francophone riding located in the southwestern part of Montreal containing parts of the boroughs of Le Sud-Ouest, Verdun and LaSalle.[7] The riding has been held by the Liberals since its creation in 2015. Prior to 2015, this area of the city was split into two different ridings, with Verdun being in one riding (Jeanne-Le Ber from 2004 to 2016) and the LaSalle and Ville-Émard areas being in another (LaSalle—Émard from 1988 to 2015). Both ridings went NDP during the "orange wave" of the 2011 Canadian federal election. Prior to 2011, the LaSalle—Émard area has been reliably Liberal, while Verdun has been less-so, with the Bloc holding it from 2006 to 2011.

Candidates

The total of 91 candidates broke the record for the longest list of candidates in a federal by-election.[8]

Ballot
Ballot comprising 91 candidates

On July 19, Montreal city councillor Laura Palestini was selected by the Liberals as their candidate over others seeking the nomination[9] such as Eddy Kara, a political strategist,[10] Christopher Baenninger, Quebec Liberal candidate in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques in 2022 and Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne in 2023,[11] and Lori Morrison, Electoral Division 1 Commissioner of the Lester B. Pearson School Board.[11] The party approached Charles Milliard, president of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec, to run as their candidate in the by-election. He ultimately declined to run, preferring running in the 2025 Quebec Liberal Party leadership election.[12]

On March 28, Craig Sauvé, independent city councillor for the district of Saint-Henri—Little-Burgundy—Pointe-Saint-Charles announced that he was standing for nomination for the New Democratic Party's candidate.[13] He was officially nominated as the NDP candidate on April 28.[14]

On July 19, the Conservative Party announced that their candidate would be Louis Ialenti, a small business owner. He was previously the Conservative candidate for Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel in 2021.[15]

The Bloc Québécois candidate was Louis-Philippe Sauvé, a party staffer and the former communications and administration coordinator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics.[16]

Gregory Yablunovsky was the PPC candidate. He was previously the party's candidate in Saint-Laurent in 2021 and La Prairie in 2019.[17]

On May 27, it was announced that Jency Mercier had won the nomination race for the Green Party.[18]

Alain Paquette was the Christian Heritage Party candidate.[19]

On July 17, the Rhinoceros Party announced that party leader Sébastien CoRhino would be the candidate.[20]

The Longest Ballot Committee announced that they are targeting the LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by-election[21] resulting in 77 independent candidates affiliated to the organization running in this seat.[22]

On August 14, the newly formed Canadian Future Party announced their candidate in the election, Mark Khoury.[23]

Campaign

It was reported that Liberal campaign materials omitted the image of Justin Trudeau, unlike other parties which used their party leader's picture.[24] The unpopularity of the federal government has been a consideration.[25] Senior Liberal figures considered the by-election a "must-win".[26]

Opinion polls

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link LPC BQ NDP CPC PPC Green Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 7-9, 2024 [27] 24.1 29.6 23.0 7.3 ±4.7 pp 443 IVR
Mainstreet Research July 9, 2024 [28] 29 26 25 14 1 3 ±5.4 pp 329 IVR
Election 2021 September 20, 2021 42.93 22.09 19.36 7.45 3.38 3.04 47,360

Results

11,000 people voted in advance polling.[29]

Canadian federal by-election, September 16, 2024: LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
Resignation of David Lametti
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Bloc Québécois Louis-Philippe Sauvé 8,884 28.02 +5.93
Liberal Laura Palestini 8,636 27.23 -15.69
New Democratic Craig Sauvé 8,262 26.05 +6.70
Conservative Louis Ialenti 3,676 11.59 +4.14
Green Jency Mercier 567 1.79 -1.25
Independent Tina Jiu Ru Zhu 197 0.62
People's Gregory Yablunovsky 156 0.49 -2.89
Canadian Future Mark Khoury 103 0.32
Independent Pierre Samson 78 0.25
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 67 0.21
Christian Heritage Alain Paquette 54 0.17
Marijuana Steve Berthelot 52 0.16
Independent Lanna Palsson 49 0.15
No Affiliation Myriam Beaulieu 47 0.15
Marxist–Leninist Normand Chouinard 41 0.13
Independent Marie-Hélène LeBel 39 0.12
Independent Line Bélanger 31 0.10
Independent John "The Engineer" Turmel 25 0.08
Independent Laura Vegys 22 0.07
No Affiliation Manon Marie Lili Desbiens 21 0.07
Independent Alain Bourgault 20 0.06
Independent Peter Barry Clarke 20 0.06
Independent Julie St-Amand 20 0.06
Independent Charles Lemieux 19 0.06
Independent Mark Moutter 19 0.06
Independent Guillaume Paradis 18 0.06
Independent Felix-Antoine Hamel 17 0.05
Independent Hans Armando Vargas 17 0.05
Independent Alex Banks 16 0.05
Independent Marc Corriveau 16 0.05
Independent Martin Croteau 16 0.05
Independent Matéo Martin 16 0.05
Independent Daniel St-Pierre 16 0.05
Independent Nassim Barhoumi 15 0.05
Independent Daniel Gagnon 15 0.05
Independent Agnieszka Marszalek 15 0.05
Independent Marie-Eve Vermette 15 0.05
Independent Mylène Bonneau 14 0.04
Independent Jacques-Eric Guy 14 0.04
No Affiliation Fang Hu 14 0.04
Independent Alain Lamontagne 14 0.04
Independent Connie Lukawski 14 0.04
Independent Glen MacDonald 14 0.04
Independent Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville 13 0.04
Independent Andrew Davidson 13 0.04
Independent Ryan Huard 13 0.04
Independent Réal BatRhino Martel 12 0.04
Independent John Dale 12 0.04
Independent John Francis O'Flynn 12 0.04
Independent Mário Stocco 12 0.04
Independent Christian Baril 11 0.03
Independent Michael Bednarski 11 0.03
Independent Samuel Ducharme 11 0.03
Independent Alexandra Engering 11 0.03
Independent Antony George Ernest Marcil 11 0.03
Independent Yusuf Nasihi 11 0.03
Independent Jaël Champagne Gareau 10 0.03
Independent Danny Légaré 10 0.03
Independent Timothy Schoen 10 0.03
Independent Mark Dejewski 9 0.03
Independent Krzysztof Krzywinski 9 0.03
Independent Judy D. Hill 8 0.03
Independent Grayson Pollard 8 0.03
Independent Jeani Boudreault 7 0.02
Independent Donovan Eckstrom 7 0.02
No Affiliation Katy Le Rougetel 7 0.02
Independent Lorant Polya 7 0.02
Independent Adam Smith 6 0.02
Independent Gavin Vanderwater 6 0.02
Independent Jordan Wong 6 0.02
Independent Dji-Pé Frazer 5 0.02
Independent Lajos Polya 5 0.02
Independent Roger Sherwood 5 0.02
Independent Michael Skirzynski 5 0.02
Independent Pascal St-Amand 5 0.02
Independent Elliot Wand 5 0.02
Independent Gerrit Dogger 4 0.01
Independent Harout Manougian 4 0.01
Independent Patrick Strzalkowski 4 0.01
Independent Darcy Justin Vanderwater 4 0.01
Independent Erle Stanley Bowman 3 0.01
Independent Anthony Hamel 3 0.01
Independent Blake Hamilton 3 0.01
Independent Spencer Rocchi 3 0.01
Independent Benjamin Teichman 3 0.01
Independent Winston Neutel 2 0.01
Independent Julian Selody 2 0.01
Independent David Erland 1 0.00
Independent Wallace Richard Rowat 1 0.00
Independent Ysack Dupont 0 0.00
Independent Daniel Stuckless 0 0.00
Total valid votes 31,711
Total rejected ballots
Turnout 31,711 39.66 -20.94
Eligible voters 79,966
Bloc Québécois gain from Liberal Swing +10.81

2021 results

2021 Canadian federal election: LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal David Lametti 20,330 42.93 -0.60 $55,842.59
Bloc Québécois Raphaël Guérard 10,461 22.09 -2.00 $9,992.28
New Democratic Jason De Lierre 9,168 19.36 +2.89 $2,674.57
Conservative Janina Moran 3,530 7.45 +0.41 $714.88
People's Michel Walsh 1,600 3.38 +2.44 $2,295.27
Green Sarah Carter 1,439 3.04 -3.80 $0.00
Free Pascal Antonin 636 1.34 N/A $2.73
Communist J.P. Fortin 196 0.41 N/A $0.00
Total valid votes/expense limit 47,360 97.86 $110,554.58
Total rejected ballots 1,036 2.14 +0.52
Turnout 48,396 60.59 -3.78
Registered voters 79,869
Liberal hold Swing +0.70
Source: Elections Canada[30]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Montreal byelection expected to be a tight race between Liberals, NDP: analyst". CTV News. 29 July 2024. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
  2. ^ Tasker, John Paul; Boudjikanian, Raffy (September 6, 2024). "Trudeau's Liberals face another big test in Montreal byelection - NDP, Bloc Québécois hoping voters tired of Trudeau will help them take long-time Liberal seat". CBC News.
  3. ^ "Trudeau déclenche deux élections partielles, dont une dans LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". La Presse (in Canadian French). 2024-07-28. Retrieved 2024-08-03.
  4. ^ Tasker, John Paul (2024-09-17). "Trudeau says Liberals have 'a lot of work to do' after his party loses another byelection". CBC News. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  5. ^ Rana, Uday (2024-09-17). "'The Liberals are done': What will the Montreal byelection loss mean for Trudeau?". Global News. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  6. ^ "Former justice minister David Lametti resigning as Liberal MP to join law firm". The Province. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
  7. ^ "Canada election results: LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 2024-08-03.
  8. ^ "LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding breaks record for longest list of candidates in federal byelection | Watch News Videos Online". Global News. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
  9. ^ "Montreal city councillor to represent Liberals in byelection". CBC News. 19 July 2024. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  10. ^ Saba, Michel (23 July 2024). "Decision to parachute Trudeau's choice into Montreal byelection shocks would-be candidates". Montreal Gazette. The Canadian Press. Retrieved 24 July 2024.
  11. ^ a b Labbé, Jérôme (19 July 2024). "Le PLC recrute une conseillère municipale pour la partielle dans LaSalle–Émard–Verdun". Radio-Canada. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  12. ^ Thomas Laberge (August 13, 2024). "Élection partielle dans LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | Milliard a « considéré » puis « refusé » de se lancer pour le PLC". La Presse (in French). Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  13. ^ @CraigSauve (March 28, 2024). "Grosse annonce aujourd'hui ! 🧡 Merci tout le monde pour les très nombreux messages de soutien ! 🙏 // Big announcement today! 🧡 Thank you for the many messages of support! 🙏 #polcan #cdnpoli #polmtl" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  14. ^ "Lasalle--Émard--Verdun NDP Nomination Meeting". New Democratic Party of Canada. Retrieved 12 April 2024.
  15. ^ Serebrin, Jacob (19 July 2024). "Liberals, Conservatives select candidates for Montreal byelection". Montreal Gazette. Postmedia Network. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  16. ^ Séguin, Charles (2024-07-28). "Deux élections partielles fédérales auront lieu le 16 septembre". Radio-Canada (in French). Retrieved 2024-07-31.
  17. ^ "Gregory Yablunovsky". People's Party of Canada. Retrieved 12 April 2024.
  18. ^ "Jency Mercier to run in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". Green Party of Canada. 27 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  19. ^ "Alain Paquette - LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". Christian Heritage Party of Canada. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  20. ^ "The people of LaSalle - Ville Émard - Verdun have endorsed Sébastien CoRhino as their candidate for the soon to be announced by-election". Facebook. Rhinoceros Party. 17 July 2024. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  21. ^ Bryan Passifiume (July 16, 2024). "Long-ballot protesters try to snarl another byelection after breaking record in Toronto—St. Paul's". National Post. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  22. ^ Audrey Sanikopoulos (August 27, 2024). "Protestation contre le système électoral: 91 candidats inscrits pour l'élection partielle de LaSalle-Émard-Verdun". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  23. ^ Nick Murray (August 14, 2024). "Canadian Future Party launches, will field candidates in upcoming byelections". CBC News. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  24. ^ Forrest, Maura (September 5, 2024). "No photos of Trudeau on campaign signs in Montreal riding ahead of byelection Other major party campaign signs feature photos of their leaders". CBC News.
  25. ^ Madoc-Jones, Gareth; Patterson, Kelsey (2024-08-31). "Montreal byelection: what's next for Trudeau if Liberals lose?". CityNews Montreal. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
  26. ^ "Liberals face must-win by-election in Montreal as they try to hold onto their base". The Globe and Mail. 2024-09-11. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
  27. ^ "Bloc ahead in crucial Montreal byelection, according to poll". CTV News Montreal. 2024-09-12. Retrieved 2024-09-14.
  28. ^ @CanadianPolling (July 11, 2024). "LaSalle-Emard-Verdun Byelection Polling" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  29. ^ mporco (2024-09-10). "LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection: 11,000 vote in advance polling". CityNews Montreal. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
  30. ^ "Official Voting Results — LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". Elections Canada. Retrieved 31 August 2024.

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