The INE issued a statement on 3 February 2021 saying that it would not be prudent to postpone the election because of the COVID-19 pandemic and doing so could even trigger a constitutional crisis by delaying the opening of the 65th Congress. INE board president Lorenzo Córdova Vianello noted the successful elections in Hidalgo and Coahuila in October 2020.[6]
On 13 April 2021 the INE cancelled the registrations of Manuel Guillermo Chapman (Morena), Ana Elizabeth Ayala Leyva, (Juntos Haremos Historia), and Raúl Tadeo Nava (Labor Party) for failure to certify their lack of involvement in gender violence.[7] On 3 June, the INE warned about possible sanctions on Catholic bishops, in particular Juan Sandoval Íñiguez, for their interference in the elections.[8]
The elections were Mexico's largest in history and were tainted by several political assassinations and the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.[9][10]
The General Law of Political Parties stipulates that national political parties can form coalitions for elections by submitting a coalition agreement to the electoral authority. Parties cannot join coalitions in their first election. As the Solidarity Encounter Party (PES), Progressive Social Networks (RSP), and Force for Mexico (FXM) were newly established parties, they were not eligble for joining a coalition.
Parties that do not reach 3% of the popular vote lose their registration as a national political party.[11][12]
On 23 December 2020, Mario Delgado, the new president of Morena, introduced the Juntos Hacemos Historia electoral alliance, a coalition comprising Morena, PT, and PVEM. Initially planned for the coalition to run together in 150 of the 300 electoral districts,[14] the alliance was expanded on 18 March 2021, to cover 183 districts.[15]
Citizens' Movement (MC) announced that they would not form an alliance with the PAN and PRD, as they had in 2018, and would instead contest the election independently, citing disagreements with the parties.[20][21][22]
A woman inserting her vote into a ballot box, Mexico City, 6 June 2021
Possibility of post-election protests
Prior Mexican elections have been fraught with accusations of election fraud, this had led to massive protests after the majority of Mexican elections in the past two decades. The 2021 legislative election did not cause protests. In a speech on 14 June, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said "We must celebrate it, because we achieved our purpose: to establish in Mexico an authentic, a true democracy."[45]
Political assassinations
The runup to the 2021 legislative election in Mexico was filled with political assassinations. More than 91 politicians were killed, 14 of them being candidates. This political violence led to the 2021 elections being labeled as the second most deadly election since the year 2000.[46]
Absentee voting
Mexican citizens from eleven states who live overseas can vote electronically or by mail. Most of the elections are for governor, but overseas citizens registered in Mexico City, Jalisco, and Guerrero will be able to vote in state legislative elections.[47]
INE approved a pilot program allowing prison inmates who are held in protective custody in Hermosillo (District 4, Sonora); Villa Comaltitlán, Chiapas; Coatlán del Río (District 4 Jojutla, Morelos); and Buena Vista Tomatlán (District 12 Apatzingán, Michoacán) to vote absentee from 17–19 May 2021. The present order covers only male inmates, but it may be extended to females.[48]
Results
The results were a stalemate. The Morena coalition (Juntos Hacemos Historia) retained its majority in the Chamber of Deputies but lost a significant number of seats to the opposition coalition (Va por México). The opposition was able to gain enough seats to block Juntos Hacemos Historia from the two-thirds majority required to make constitutional amendments. The Morena coalition won with over 44% of the popular vote. Morena and its allies also performed very well in gubernatorial races, winning 18, a little over half of Mexico’s 32 governorships.[49]
Because Juntos Hacemos Historia did not have a supermajority or a majority with Morena by itself, there were questions about how that would impact legislative goals. Some said López Obrador might negotiate to bring his policies to fruition. Others said he could attempt to flex his executive muscle and brute force changes by using his powers as president.[50]
The election results hinted that the opposition parties could perform more strongly if they were allied together. With their alliance, Va por México believed it stood a chance of denying Morena a legislative majority or even the presidency in the 2024 election.[51]
The election had a voter turnout of 53% with 49 million votes cast, the largest midterm election in Mexican history.[52]
The results of the INE's official quick count were announced around midnight Mexico City time. It reported around 35% of the vote for Morena, with the following approximate results for the other parties: PAN 19%; PRI 18%; PRD 4%; PVEM 6%; PT 3%; MC 7%; PES, 3%; RSP 2%; FxM 3%; and independents 0.2%.[53]
Mexican law requires political parties to obtain at least 3% of the vote to be registered. Registration allows the party to postulate candidates and receive subsidies for campaign expenses (MXN $161.9 million or US$8.1 million each in 2021).[11] Based on 2021 PREP results, Progressive Social Networks, Solidarity Encounter Party, and Force for Mexico will lose their registration. RSP, affiliated with teachers′ union leader Elba Esther Gordillo, had 839,000 (1.76%) votes; PES, affiliated with evangelist Hugo Eric Flores, had 296,568 (2.73%) votes; and FM, affiliated with Senator Ricardo Monreal, had 178,000 (2.48%) votes. The parties have the opportunity to reorganize for the next election.[12]
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