2019 Castilian-Leonese regional election

2019 Castilian-Leonese regional election
← 2015 26 May 2019 2022 →
All 81 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León
41 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered2,114,811 Red arrow down1.7%
Turnout1,391,502 (65.8%)
Green arrow up1.1 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Luis Tudanca Alfonso Fernández Mañueco Francisco Igea
Party PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 18 October 2014 1 April 2017 11 March 2019
Leader's seat Burgos Salamanca Valladolid
Last election 25 seats, 25.9% 42 seats, 37.7% 5 seats, 10.3%
Seats won 35 29 12
Seat change Green arrow up10 Red arrow down13 Green arrow up7
Popular vote 479,916 433,905 205,855
Percentage 34.8% 31.5% 14.9%
Swing Green arrow up8.9 pp Red arrow down6.1 pp Green arrow up4.6 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Pablo Fernández Jesús García-Conde Luis Mariano Santos
Party Podemos–Equo Vox UPL
Leader since 14 February 2015 10 May 2019 26 March 2015
Leader's seat León Valladolid León
Last election 10 seats, 12.1% 0 seats, 0.7% 1 seat, 1.4%
Seats won 2 1 1
Seat change Red arrow down8 Green arrow up1 Blue arrow right0
Popular vote 68,869 75,731 28,057
Percentage 5.0% 5.5% 2.0%
Swing Red arrow down7.1 pp Green arrow up4.8 pp Green arrow up0.6 pp
  Seventh party Eighth party
 
Leader Pedro Pascual José Sarrión
Party XAV IU–A–PCAS/TC–ALTER
Leader since 9 April 2019 15 February 2015
Leader's seat Ávila Valladolid
Last election Did not contest 1 seat, 4.5%[a]
Seats won 1 0
Seat change Green arrow up1 Red arrow down1
Popular vote 9,455 31,580
Percentage 0.7% 2.3%
Swing New party Red arrow down2.2 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castile and León
President before election

Juan Vicente Herrera
PP

Elected President

Alfonso Fernández Mañueco
PP

The 2019 Castilian-Leonese regional election was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castile and León. All 81 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) saw its first plurality in a regional election in Castile and León since 1983, being only the second time in history that the party emerged as the most voted political force in a regional election. Conversely, support for the governing People's Party (PP) collapsed into the worst historical showing for the party, whereas the liberal Citizens (Cs) and the far-right Vox made substantial gains at its expense, though support for the latter, which rose from 0.7% to 5.5%, failed to materialize in more than one single seat due to the electoral system. Concurrently, the Podemos–Equo alliance suffered a sizeable setback after losing eight out of the ten seats Podemos had won on its own in 2015.

As a result of PP and Cs being able to muster a slim majority of 41 seats in the Cortes, the two centre-right parties were able to form a coalition government—the second in the community's history, after the coalition between the PP and the late Democratic and Social Centre (CDS) that was formed for the 1989–1991 period—under PP candidate Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, who became the region's new president.[1]

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castile and León were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[2] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Leonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[3]

All members of the Cortes of Castile and León were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.[2][4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
15 Valladolid
13 León(–1)
11 Burgos
10 Salamanca(–1)
7 Ávila, Palencia, Zamora
6 Segovia(–1)
5 Soria

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[5]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and sixtieth days from publication. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 24 May 2019. The election decree was required to be published in the BOCYL no later than 30 April 2019, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Saturday, 29 June 2019.[2][4][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[2]

Parliamentary composition

The Cortes of Castile and León were officially dissolved on 2 April 2019, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Castile and León.[7] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[8]

Parliamentary composition in April 2019
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 42 42
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 25 25
We Can Castile and León Parliamentary Group Podemos 10 10
Citizens Parliamentary Group Cs 5 5
Mixed Parliamentary Group IUCyL 1 2
UPL 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Alfonso Fernández Mañueco Conservatism
Christian democracy 		37.73% 42 checkY [9]
[10]
PSOE
List
 Luis Tudanca Social democracy 25.94% 25 ☒N [11]
Podemos–
Equo
List
 Pablo Fernández Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		12.14% 10 ☒N [12]
Cs
List
 Francisco Igea Liberalism 10.27% 5 ☒N [13]
IU–A–PCAS/
TC–ALTER
List
 José Sarrión Socialism
Communism 		4.48%[a] 1 ☒N [14]
UPL
List
 Luis Mariano Santos Regionalism
Autonomism 		1.41% 1 ☒N [15]
Vox
List
 Jesús García-Conde Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		0.68% 0 ☒N [16]
XAV
List
 Pedro Pascual Regionalism New party ☒N [17]

Campaign

Election debates

Since a 2017 reform, the electoral law of Castile and León provided for the presidential candidates of the parties having a parliamentary group in the Cortes to participate in, at least, two electoral debates to be held during the electoral campaign.[4]

2019 Castilian-Leonese regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[b]    S  Surrogate[c]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee 
PP PSOE Podemos Cs Audience Ref.
14 May RTVCyL Nati Melendre
Alejandra Abad 		P
Mañueco 		P
Tudanca 		P
Fernández 		P
Igea 		228,000 [18]
[19]
21 May RTVCyL Nati Melendre
Alejandra Abad 		P
Mañueco 		P
Tudanca 		P
Fernández 		P
Igea 		183,000 [20]
[21]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 41 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León (43 until 10 January 2018).

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Cortes of Castile and León election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 479,916 34.84 +8.90 35 +10
People's Party (PP) 433,905 31.50 –6.23 29 –13
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) 205,855 14.94 +4.67 12 +7
Vox (Vox) 75,731 5.50 +4.82 1 +1
We Can–Equo (Podemos–Equo) 68,869 5.00 –7.14 2 –8
United Left–Anticapitalists (IU–Anticapitalistas–PCAS/TC–ALTER)1 31,580 2.29 –1.86 0 –1
Leonese People's Union (UPL)2 28,057 2.04 +0.49 1 ±0
For Ávila (XAV) 9,455 0.69 New 1 +1
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 8,619 0.63 +0.10 0 ±0
Sorian People's Platform (PPSO) 3,895 0.28 New 0 ±0
Coalition for El Bierzo (CB) 3,725 0.27 –0.10 0 ±0
Decide Now (Ahora Decide)3 1,911 0.14 –0.20 0 ±0
Regionalist Party of El Bierzo (PRB) 1,602 0.12 +0.07 0 ±0
Regionalist Party of the Leonese Country (PREPAL) 1,403 0.10 ±0.00 0 ±0
With You, We Are Democracy (Contigo) 1,287 0.09 New 0 ±0
Social Unity of Bierzo Electors (USE Bierzo) 1,259 0.09 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE) 1,001 0.07 New 0 ±0
Regionalist Union of Castile and León (Unión Regionalista)4 992 0.07 +0.01 0 ±0
Democratic Centre Coalition (CCD)5 925 0.07 –0.87 0 ±0
Centered (centrados) 920 0.07 New 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 627 0.05 –0.08 0 ±0
Ávila Free of Tolls (ÁvilaLP) 552 0.04 New 0 ±0
Grouped Rural Citizens (CRA) 472 0.03 –0.09 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 215 0.02 –0.08 0 ±0
Tradition and Future (TyF) 191 0.01 New 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 148 0.01 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 14,566 1.06 –1.38
Total 1,377,678 81 –3
Valid votes 1,377,678 99.01 +1.08
Invalid votes 13,824 0.99 –1.08
Votes cast / turnout 1,391,502 65.80 +1.13
Abstentions 723,309 34.20 –1.13
Registered voters 2,114,811
Sources[22][23]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PSOE
 
 34.84%
PP
 
 31.50%
Cs
 
 14.94%
Vox
 
 5.50%
Podemos–Equo
 
 5.00%
IU–Anticapitalists
 
 2.29%
UPL
 
 2.04%
XAV
 
 0.69%
Others
 
 2.16%
Blank ballots
 
 1.06%
Seats
PSOE
 
 43.21%
PP
 
 35.80%
Cs
 
 14.81%
Podemos–Equo
 
 2.47%
Vox
 
 1.23%
UPL
 
 1.23%
XAV
 
 1.23%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE PP Cs Vox Podemos UPL XAV
% S % S % S % S % S % S % S
Ávila 28.3 2 36.1 3 13.0 1 5.7 − 3.9 − 9.6 1
Burgos 37.0 5 28.1 3 17.3 2 6.1 − 7.2 1
León 35.2 6 27.4 4 11.0 1 4.2 − 5.5 1 10.2 1
Palencia 35.9 3 34.5 3 15.1 1 5.7 − 4.6 −
Salamanca 33.3 4 38.5 4 15.6 2 4.8 − 4.0 − 0.3 −
Segovia 33.8 3 33.5 2 16.4 1 5.6 − 5.3 −
Soria 40.7 3 27.6 2 11.3 − 4.3 − 5.1 −
Valladolid 34.7 6 29.5 5 17.7 3 6.9 1 4.7 −
Zamora 36.2 3 33.8 3 13.9 1 5.1 − 3.5 − 0.7 −
Total 34.8 35 31.5 29 14.9 12 5.5 1 5.0 2 2.0 1 0.7 1
Sources[22][23]

Aftermath

Further information: First government of Alfonso Fernández Mañueco
Investiture
Alfonso Fernández Mañueco (PP)
Ballot → 9 July 2019
Required majority → 41 out of 81 checkY
Yes
  • • PP (29)
  • • Cs (12)
41 / 81
No
38 / 81
Abstentions
2 / 81
Absentees
0 / 81
Sources[23][24]

Notes

  1. ^ a b Results for IU–Equo (4.15%, 1 seat) and PCAS–TC–Pacto (0.33%, 0 seats) in the 2015 election.
  2. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  3. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t Within Unidas Podemos.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla y León (24M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 May 2019.
  2. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla y León (23M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 23 May 2019.
  3. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla y León (22M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 May 2019.
  4. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla y León (21M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 May 2019.
  5. ^ "Cs tendría la llave de la Junta de Castilla y León pero no lograría desbancar al PSOE en Aragón". Público (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  6. ^ "El PSOE gana en Madrid, pero la suma de PP, Cs y Vox lo aleja de Sol". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  7. ^ "Resultados por comunidades. Encuesta mayo 2019" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 May 2019. Retrieved 20 May 2019.
  8. ^ "Encuesta electoral: Ajustada batalla entre bloques el 26-M". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  9. ^ "El PP quedaría en manos de Ciudadanos para mantener su feudo de Castilla y León". El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 May 2019.
  10. ^ "#emojiPanel Castilla y León (20M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  11. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla y León (18M): dura lucha entre PSOE y PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 May 2019.
  12. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla y León (15M): empate PSOE-PP en torno al 30%". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 May 2019.
  13. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla y León (12M): continúa la igualdad PSOE-PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 May 2019.
  14. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla y León (9M): Vox recupera peso a costa de PSOE y Ciudadanos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
  15. ^ "#electoPanel Castilla y León (6M): empate técnico PSOE-PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2019.
  16. ^ a b "Estimaciones de voto en Comunidades Autónomas y grandes ciudades (Estudio nº 3245. Marzo-abril 2019)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
  17. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico (12A): las mayorías siguen en el aire". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
  18. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómicas (3A): Ciudadanos decidirá el bloque ganador en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2019.
  19. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico (27M). Semana de retrocesos para Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 March 2019.
  20. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (20M): 'Navarra Suma' (PP-Cs-UPN) no suma para recuperar el Gobierno Foral". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 March 2019.
  21. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico 13M: el PSOE es el más votado, pero la derecha suma en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2019.
  22. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico: la irrupción de Vox en casi todas las CCAA posibilitaría a la derecha gobernar la mayoría de ellas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 March 2019.
  23. ^ "Sigma Dos- Escenario abierto ante el 26-M: el PP sumaría mayoría con Cs o Vox, aunque el PSOE tendría también una opción con los de Rivera". Ical (in Spanish). 21 February 2019.
  24. ^ "ElectoPanel Castilla y León (I): Vox da el sorpasso a Ciudadanos y se coloca tercero. Podemos se hunde". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 January 2019.
  25. ^ "Un sondeo del PSOE pone patas arriba las futuras Cortes de Castilla y León". segoviaaldia.es (in Spanish). 17 January 2019.
  26. ^ "Encuesta interna del PSOE para Castilla y León: desbarajuste absoluto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 January 2019.
  27. ^ "Fuerte sacudida al mapa político: El PP pierde diez u once escaños aunque se mantiene como primera fuerza y Cs triplica su representación". El Bierzo Digital (in Spanish). 12 July 2018.
  28. ^ "Extrapolación ElectoPanel Castilla y León: El PP, lejos de la mayoría absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 14 June 2018.
  29. ^ "Estimación Marzo 2018. Castilla y León. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 1 April 2018.
  30. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 1 April 2018.
Other
  1. ^ "La Comunidad repite el acuerdo de 1987 entre el CDS y AP". Diario de León (in Spanish). 2 July 2019. Retrieved 22 January 2022.
  2. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 14/2007, de 30 de noviembre, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla y León (Organic Law 14) (in Spanish). 30 November 2007. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  3. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  4. ^ a b c d Ley 3/1987, de 30 de marzo, Electoral de Castilla y León (Law 3) (in Spanish). 30 March 1987. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  5. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  6. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  7. ^ "Decreto 1/2019, de 1 de abril, del Presidente de la Junta de Castilla y León, por el que se convocan elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla y León" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (79): 34060–34061. 2 April 2019. ISSN 0212-033X.
  8. ^ "El Parlamento. Legislaturas anteriores. IX Legislatura". Cortes of Castile and León (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  9. ^ Casqueiro, Javier (18 March 2017). "Mañueco gana y sucederá a Herrera al frente del PP en Castilla y León". El País (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  10. ^ "El PP de Castilla y León propone a Fernández Mañueco como candidato a la Presidencia de la Junta". El Economista (in Spanish). Valladolid. 18 December 2018. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  11. ^ "Luis Tudanca, único candidato a la Secretaría General del PSOE en Castilla y León" (in Spanish). burgosconecta.es. 19 June 2017. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  12. ^ "Pablo Fernández, único candidato en Podemos para presidir la Junta de CyL". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 18 October 2018. Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  13. ^ "Francisco Igea será el candidato de Ciudadanos a la Junta de CyL" (in Spanish). Segovia: Cadena SER. 11 March 2019. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  14. ^ "Jose Sarrión ratificado como candidato a la Presidencia de la Junta por IU". iLeón (in Spanish). Ical. 10 March 2019. Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  15. ^ "Luis Mariano Santos repite como candidato de UPL a Cortes por León". El Español (in Spanish). 24 April 2019. Retrieved 24 December 2021.
  16. ^ "Jesús García-Conde del Castillo, candidato de VOX a la Junta de Castilla y León". ABC (in Spanish). 10 May 2019. Retrieved 18 June 2023.
  17. ^ Carretero, E. (9 April 2019). "Pedro Pascual encabezará la lista regional de Por Ávila". Diario de Ávila (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 December 2021.
  18. ^ Ortega, Rodrigo (14 May 2019). "Fernández Mañueco sale vivo del debate apoyado en el empleo creado". La Razón (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 February 2021.
  19. ^ "Un total de 228.000 espectadores siguieron el debate entre los candidatos a la Junta de CyL" (in Spanish). Valladolid: Europa Press. 15 May 2019. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  20. ^ "Debate: Igea pasa al ataque a izquierda y derecha mientras Mañueco se enfoca en Tudanca". El Norte de Castilla (in Spanish). 21 May 2019. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  21. ^ "El segundo debate fue seguido por 183.000 espectadores". Diario de Burgos (in Spanish). 22 May 2019. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  22. ^ a b "Cortes of Castile and León election results, 26 May 2019" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Castile and León. 20 June 2019. Retrieved 20 June 2019.
  23. ^ a b c "Elecciones a Cortes de Castilla y León (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  24. ^ "Fernández Mañueco, proclamado presidente de la Junta con 29 votos del PP y 12 de Cs". El Norte de Castilla (in Spanish). 9 July 2019. Retrieved 9 July 2019.