2018 Braddon by-election

2018 Braddon by-election
← 2016 28 July 2018 (2018-07-28) 2019 →
The Division of Braddon (Tas) in the House of Representatives
Registered73,670
Turnout90.38% Decrease 3.71
  First party Second party Third party
 
IND
Candidate Justine Keay Brett Whiteley Craig Garland
Party Labor Liberal Independent
First preference vote 23,218 24,645 6,633
Percentage 36.98% 39.26% 10.57%
Swing Decrease 3.07 Decrease 2.24 Increase 10.57
TPP 52.31% 47.69%
TPP swing Increase 0.11 Decrease 0.11
MP before election

Justine Keay
Labor

Elected MP

Justine Keay
Labor

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Braddon took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Justine Keay.[1]

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate.[2]

The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Keay and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:

A redistribution of the Tasmanian federal electoral divisions was completed in 2017, however by-elections are conducted under existing boundaries, as redistributed boundaries do not come into effect until the subsequent federal election.[5][6]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]

  • Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
  • Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
  • Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates

Burnie City Council polling booth
Candidates (8) in ballot paper order[8]
Party Candidate Background
  Greens Jarrod Edwards Indigenous land management supervisor.[9]
  SFF Brett Neal Farmer.[10]
  Independent Donna Gibbons Registered nurse and small business owner.[8]
  Liberal Democrats Joshua Boag Sheetmetal fabricator. Contested Braddon at the 2016 federal election.[8]
  Liberal Brett Whiteley One-term MP for Braddon elected at the 2013 federal election.[11]
  Independent Craig Garland Fisherman. Contested Braddon at the 2018 state election.[12]
  People Bruno Strangio Has managed numerous real estate and construction enterprises.[8]
  Labor Justine Keay Previous MP for Braddon elected at the 2016 federal election.[13]

Polling

Braddon by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample MoE Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB GRN OTH ALP LIB
24−26 July 2018 Newspoll The Australian[14] 1002 ±3.1% 40% 43% 5% 12% 51% 49%
19 July 2018 ReachTEL Aus. Forest Products Assoc.[15][16] 810 ±3.4% 36.0% 42.7% 7.0% 14.3% 52% 48%
2 June 2018 ReachTEL Sky News[17] >800 ±3.4% 33% 47% 6% 14% 46% 54%
2016 election 40.0% 41.5% 6.7% 11.7% 52.2% 47.8%

Results

Further information: Electoral results for the Division of Braddon
2018 Braddon by-election[18][19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Brett Whiteley 24,645 39.26 −2.24
Labor Justine Keay 23,218 36.98 −3.07
Independent Craig Garland 6,633 10.57 +10.57
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Brett Neal 2,984 4.75 +4.75
Greens Jarrod Edwards 2,518 4.01 −2.73
Independent Donna Gibbons 1,533 2.44 +2.44
Liberal Democrats Joshua Boag 828 1.32 −0.81
People's Party Bruno Strangio 421 0.67 0.67
Total formal votes 62,780 94.29 −0.48
Informal votes 3,804 5.71 +0.48
Turnout 66,584 90.38 −3.71
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Justine Keay 32,842 52.31 +0.11
Liberal Brett Whiteley 29,938 47.69 −0.11
Labor hold Swing +0.11
Diagram of preference flows at the Braddon by-election

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Yaxley, Louise (9 May 2018). "Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling". ABC News.
  2. ^ Green, Antony. "July 2018 Federal By-elections". ABC News.
  3. ^ "Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election". ABC News. 2 May 2018.
  4. ^ Yaxley, Louise (24 May 2018). "Date set for by-elections in Perth, Fremantle, Mayo, Longman and Braddon". ABC News. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
  5. ^ "2018 Braddon by-election - postal voting". AEC. Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  6. ^ "Tasmanian federal redistribution [2016]". AEC. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  7. ^ "2018 Braddon by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 17 June 2018.
  8. ^ a b c d Green, Antony. "2018 Braddon by-election guide". ABC News.
  9. ^ Ford, Sean (8 June 2018). "Greens' Braddon candidate Jarrod Edwards wants big Newstart increase". The Advocate. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  10. ^ "Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party announce Braddon by-election candidate". Tasmania Talks. Grant Broadcasters. 18 June 2018. Archived from the original on 18 June 2018. Retrieved 18 June 2018.
  11. ^ "Liberals name Braddon by-election runner". SBS News. 12 May 2018.
  12. ^ "Fishing identity enters race for by-election seat". The Mercury. News Corp Australia. 2 July 2018. Retrieved 2 July 2018.
  13. ^ Norman, Jane (10 May 2018). "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money". ABC News.
  14. ^ Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon, 28 July 2018, retrieved 28 July 2018
  15. ^ Labor's Justine Keay best placed in close Braddon race, new poll suggests, 21 July 2018, retrieved 22 July 2018
  16. ^ Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018
  17. ^ ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman, 3 June 2018, retrieved 3 June 2018
  18. ^ 2018 Braddon by-election results: AEC
  19. ^ 2018 Braddon by-election results: ABC