2017 Saarland state election

2017 Saarland state election
← 2012 26 March 2017 2022 →
All 51 seats in the Landtag of Saarland
26 seats needed for a majority
Turnout533,783 (69.7%)
Increase 8.1%
  First party Second party
 
Leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Anke Rehlinger
Party CDU SPD
Leader since 28 May 2011[1] 18 June 2016
Last election 19 seats, 35.2% 17 seats, 30.6%
Seats won 24 17
Seat change Increase 5 Steady 0
Popular vote 217,263 158,057
Percentage 40.7% 29.6%
Swing Increase 5.5% Decrease 1.0%
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Oskar Lafontaine Rudolf Müller
Party Left AfD
Leader since 9 August 2008 16 September 2016
Last election 9 seats, 16.1% Did not exist
Seats won 7 3
Seat change Decrease 2 Increase 3
Popular vote 68,566 32,971
Percentage 12.8% 6.2%
Swing Decrease 3.3% New party
Government before election

Second Kramp-Karrenbauer cabinet
CDU–SPD

Government after election

Third Kramp-Karrenbauer cabinet
CDU–SPD

The 2017 Saarland state election was held on 26 March 2017 to elect the members of the Landtag of Saarland.[2][3] The incumbent grand coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister-President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was returned with an increased majority.[4][5]

Even though the Saarland is the second smallest state by population and does not represent Germany as a whole demographically, the election proved to be of pivotal importance to the following state elections and in particular the federal election later that year. Then-SPD leader Martin Schulz led the party to new heights in early 2017 and polls showed the SPD capturing the Minister-President's office in this first election of the year, but the upset CDU victory marked the beginning of a decline in the polls both nationally and in other state elections. This decline culminated in heavy losses for the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein, in North Rhine-Westphalia and, ultimately, in the 2017 German federal election.

Background

The 2012 state election was called after the collapse of the Jamaica coalition of the CDU, Free Democratic Party (FDP) and The Greens. The election saw the collapse of the FDP, a downswing for The Left and Greens, gains for the SPD, and the entry of the Pirates. Afterwards, the CDU and SPD formed a grand coalition.[6]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Saarland.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2012 result since 2015
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 		Christian democracy Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer 35.2%
19 / 51
19 / 51
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 		Social democracy Anke Rehlinger 30.6%
17 / 51
18 / 51
Linke The Left
Die Linke 		Democratic socialism Oskar Lafontaine 16.1%
9 / 51
8 / 51
Piraten Pirate Party Germany
Piratenpartei Deutschland 		Pirate politics Gerd Rainer Weber 7.4%
4 / 51
3 / 51
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 		Green politics Hubert Ulrich
Barbara Meyer-Gluche 		5.0%
2 / 51
3 / 51

Opinion polling

Party polling

Publication date Poll source Others Lead
26 March 2017 2017 state election 40.7 29.6 12.9 0.7 4.0 3.3 6.2 1.9 11.1
23 Mar 2017 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 37 32 12.5 – 4.5 4 6 4 5
22 Mar 2017 INSA 35 33 13 – 4 5 6 4 2
17 Mar 2017 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 37 32 12 – 4 4 7 4 5
16 Mar 2017 Infratest dimap 35 34 13 – 4.5 3 6.5 4 1
9 Mar 2017 Forsa 34 33 13 – 5 4 6 5 1
7 Mar 2017 INSA 36 33 12 – 4 4 7 4 3
26 Jan 2017 Infratest dimap 38 26 14 – 5 4 9 4 12
13 Jan 2017 INSA 35 24 16 – 6 5 10 2 11
15 Nov 2016 Forsa 37 26 15 – 6 3 9 4 11
11 May 2016 Infratest dimap 34 29 12 – 7 4 11 3 5
31 Mar 2015 Infratest dimap 40 33 10 1 6 2 4 4 7
25 May 2014 2014 European election 34.9 34.4 6.6 1.7 6.0 2.2 6.8 7.4 0.5
14 May 2014 Infratest dimap 37 34 13 2 5 – 5 4 3
22 Sep 2013 2013 federal election 37.8 31.0 10.0 2.6 5.7 3.8 5.2 3.9 6.8
7 May 2013 Infratest dimap 39 36 10 2 6 2 3 2 3
25 March 2012 2012 state election 35.2 30.6 16.1 7.4 5.0 1.2 – 4.4 4.6

Minister-President polling

Publication date Poll source None
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer
CDU 		Anke Rehlinger
SPD 		Heiko Maas
SPD
23 Mar 2017 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 53.0 34.0 – 13.0
17 Mar 2017 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 55.0 31.0 – 14.0
16 Mar 2017 Infratest dimap 51.0 32.0 – 7.0
26 Jan 2017 Infratest dimap 60.0 23.0 – 9.0
15 Nov 2016 Forsa 54.0 19.0 – –
11 May 2016 Infratest dimap 59.0 26.0 – 10.0
31 Mar 2015 Infratest dimap 62.0 18.0 – 9.0
14 May 2014 Infratest dimap 53.0 – 35.0 6.0
7 May 2013 Infratest dimap 53.0 – 36.0 7.0

Election result

Summary of the 26 March 2017 election results for the Landtag of Saarland
Party Votes % +/- Seats +/- Seats %
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 217,263 40.7 Increase5.5 24 Increase5 47.1
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 158,057 29.6 Decrease1.0 17 Steady0 33.3
The Left (Linke) 68,566 12.8 Decrease3.3 7 Decrease2 13.7
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 32,971 6.2 New 3 New 5.9
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 21,392 4.0 Decrease1.0 0 Decrease2 0
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 17,419 3.3 Increase2.1 0 ±0 0
Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) 4,435 0.8 Decrease0.9 0 ±0 0
Pirate Party (Piraten) 3,979 0.7 Decrease6.7 0 Decrease4 0
National Democratic Party (NPD) 3,744 0.7 Decrease0.5 0 ±0 0
Others 5,957 1.1 0 ±0 0
Total 533,783 100.0 51 ±0
Voter turnout 69.7 Increase8.1
Popular Vote
CDU
 
 40.70%
SPD
 
 29.61%
DIE LINKE
 
 12.85%
AfD
 
 6.18%
B'90/GRÜNE
 
 4.01%
FDP
 
 3.26%
Other
 
 1.12%
Landtag seats
CDU
 
 47.06%
SPD
 
 33.33%
DIE LINKE
 
 12.73%
AfD
 
 5.88%

Outcome

Observers were surprised by the CDU's strong performance, as opinion polls predicted a close contest between the CDU and SPD.[7] After the election, several commentators described the results as a boost for the September 2017 electoral prospects of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the CDU,[8][9][10] and as a setback for SPD leader Martin Schulz.[11]

As both the CDU and SPD refused to coalition with AfD, the CDU and SPD coalition reached an agreement to continue governing together after the election.[12]

References

  1. ^ The party leader: Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Archived 2016-03-02 at the Wayback Machine, cdu-saar.de (German)
  2. ^ Election dates in Germany, wahlrecht.de (German)
  3. ^ Vor dem Wahlkampf: Elefantenrunde ohne Berührungsängste, Saarbrücker Zeitung (German), 13 February 2016
  4. ^ Kramp-Karrenbauer für Fortsetzung der großen Koalition im Saarland, focus.de (German), 2 Oct 2014
  5. ^ Die „rote Charlotte“ hält sich bereit, Frankfurter Allgemeine (German), 29 May 2015
  6. ^ Merkel's party wins German state election, AlJazeera (English), 25 March 2012
  7. ^ Delcker, Janosch (27 March 2017). "Merkel: Embracing 'Grand Coalition' Helped Us Win Saarland". Politico. Retrieved 27 March 2017.
  8. ^ Chase, Jefferson (27 March 2017). "Merkel's CDU Savors Local Election Win". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 27 March 2017.
  9. ^ Carrel, Paul; Erdem, Hakan (26 March 2017). "Merkel's Conservatives Win Saarland Vote in Boost for National Campaign". Reuters. Retrieved 27 March 2017.
  10. ^ Smale, Alison (26 March 2017). "Angela Merkel's Re-election Bid Is Buoyed by Widely Watched State Election". The New York Times. Retrieved 27 March 2017.
  11. ^ Carrel, Paul (27 March 2017). "Germany's 'Schulz Effect' Fails to Deliver in First Election Test". U.S. News & World Report (from Reuters). Retrieved 27 March 2017.
  12. ^ "Saarland: CDU und SPD unterschreiben Koalitionsvertrag".