Wisconsin had ever since the decline of the Populist movement been substantially a one-party state dominated by the Republican Party.[1] The Democratic Party became entirely uncompetitive outside certain German Catholic counties adjoining Lake Michigan as the upper classes, along with the majority of workers who followed them, completely fled from William Jennings Bryan's agrarian and free silver sympathies.[2] As Democratic strength weakened severely after 1894 – although the state did develop a strong Socialist Party to provide opposition to the GOP – Wisconsin developed the direct Republican primary in 1903 and this ultimately created competition between the "League" under Robert M. La Follette, and the conservative "Regular" faction.[3]
The beginning of the 1910s would see a minor Democratic revival as many La Follette progressives endorsed Woodrow Wilson,[4] but this flirtation would not be long-lasting as Wilson's "Anglophile" foreign policies were severely opposed by Wisconsin's largely German- and Scandinavian-American populace.[5]The 1918 mid-term elections saw the Midwestern farming community largely desert the Democratic Party due to supposed preferential treatment of Southern farmers:[6] Democratic seats in the Midwest fell from thirty-four to seventeen,[7] whilst Scandinavian-Americans were also vigorously opposed to entering the war.[8] Furthermore, Democratic fear of Communism seen in the Palmer Raids and "Red Scare" led to ultimate nominee James M. Cox, then Governor of Ohio, to ban German-language instruction in public schools in 1919.[7] Still more critical for German-Americans was the view that outgoing President Woodrow Wilson was deliberately trying to punish Germany and Austria for starting the war, especially via his disregard for the United Kingdom's continuing blockade of Germany.[9] Stressing Harding's German ancestry, the German press drummed up the view that a vote for Harding was a vote against the persecutions suffered by German-Americans during the war.[10]
Campaign
As the campaign began after the Republican Party had nominated U.S. SenatorWarren G. Harding of Ohio and the Democratic Party former Ohio governorJames M. Cox, a further blow to the Democrats came when the national economy suffered a major downturn following the wartime boom, resulting in plummeting agricultural prices that were especially problematic in the Midwest.[11] Whereas Cox travelled throughout the nation apart from the "Solid South" during September,[12] Harding, despite having four times the budget, campaigned from his home in Marion, Ohio.
A poll by the giant Rexall drug store chain – which in 1916 had been accurate enough to predict Wilson's razor-thin wins in New Hampshire and California[13] – suggested Harding would win 382 electoral votes,[14] and at the end of October, although no more opinion polls had been published, most observers were even more convinced that the Republicans would take complete control of all branches of government.[15] Polls were similarly confident in Wisconsin, despite forecasts of a big vote for imprisoned fifth-time Socialist nominee Eugene V. Debs.[16] Expectations of a landslide were fully realized: whereas Charles Evans Hughes had carried Wisconsin by only 6.59 points in 1916, Harding won this arch-isolationist state by a nine-to-two majority. Wisconsin would prove to be Harding's fourth strongest state in the 1920 election terms of popular vote percentage after North Dakota, Vermont and Michigan.[17] Wisconsin would prove Cox's weakest state in the largest landslide loss in United States presidential election history, and Debs' strongest state in his last campaign for the presidency.[17] Despite Debs' substantial vote, Harding carried all Wisconsin's counties with absolute majorities, becoming the only candidate to ever win every single Wisconsin county in a presidential election, and Cox cracked twenty-three percent of the vote in just three counties. This would be the last time a Republican presidential candidate carried Iron County until Richard Nixon in 1972.[18]
^One should exercise caution with using the 1921 Blue Book as a source for the 1920 election in Wisconsin; it contains a number of misprints that cause the county figures to not add up to the stated totals. The true figures can all be found in the 1920 Board of Canvassers reports, held at the Wisconsin Historical Society in Madison.
^Based on totals for highest elector on each ticket
^ abcdefghIn this county where Debs ran second ahead of Cox, margin given is Hardin vote minus Debs vote and percentage margin Hading percentage minus debs percentage.
^The 1921 Blue Book contains a typo for Republican elector Youmans in this county
^The 1921 Blue Book contains a typo for Prohibition elector Smith in this county
References
^Burnham, Walter Dean; 'The System of 1896: An Analysis'; in The Evolution of American Electoral Systems, pp. 178-179 ISBN0-313-21379-8
^Sundquist, James; Politics and Policy: The Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Johnson Years, p. 526 ISBN0-8157-1909-4
^Hansen, John Mark; Shigeo Hirano, and Snyder, James M. Jr.; 'Parties within Parties: Parties, Factions, and Coordinated Politics, 1900-1980'; in Gerber, Alan S. and Schickler, Eric; Governing in a Polarized Age: Elections, Parties, and Political Representation in America, pp. 165-168 ISBN978-1-107-09509-0
^Crews, Kenneth D.; 'Woodrow Wilson, Wisconsin, and the Election of 1912'; Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 3: 'Presidents, Vice Presidents and Political Parties: Performance and Prospects' (Summer, 1982), pp. 369-376
^Leary, William M. (jr.); 'Woodrow Wilson, Irish Americans, and the Election of 1916'; The Journal of American History, Vol. 54, No. 1 (June 1967), pp. 57-72
^Morello, John A.; Albert D. Lasker, Advertising, and the Election of Warren G. Harding, p. 64 ISBN0-275-97030-2
^ abHough, Jerry F.; Changing Party Coalitions: The Mystery of the Red State-Blue State Alignment, pp. 86-87 ISBN0-87586-409-0
^Saldin, Robert P., 'World War I and the System of 1896' (2010); Political Science Faculty Publications, Paper 1, pp. 825-836
^Lichtman, Allan J.; Prejudice and the Old Politics: The Presidential Election of 1928, pp. 102, 115
^Lubell, Samuel; The Future of American Politics, p. 135 Published 1952 by Harper and Brothers, New York
^Goldberg, David Joseph; Discontented America: The United States in the 1920s, p. 47 ISBN0-8018-6005-9
^Faykosh, Joseph D., Bowling Green State University; The Front Porch of the American People: James Cox and the Presidential Election of 1920 (thesis), p. 69
^Pietrusza, David; 1920: The Year of the Six Presidents, p. 398 ISBN0-7867-2102-2
^Bagby, Rexby; The Road to Normalcy: The Presidential Campaign and Election of 1920, pp. 158-159 ISBN0-8018-0045-5
^'Republicans Going to Win: Prospects of a Complete Victory'; The Observer, October 31, 1920, p. 13
^'Blaine Is Big Choice in Betting'; The Capital Times, November 2, 1920, p. 1
