Saanich—Gulf Islands

Saanich—Gulf Islands
British Columbia electoral district
Saanich—Gulf Islands in relation to other electoral districts in the Vancouver Island area
Federal electoral district
LegislatureHouse of Commons
MP
 
 		 
Elizabeth May
Green
District created1987
First contested1988
Last contested2021
District webpageprofile, map
Demographics
Population (2011)[1]104,285
Electors (2021)93,538
Area (km²)[1]518
Pop. density (per km²)201.3
Census division(s)Capital
Census subdivision(s)Saanich, Central Saanich, Sidney, North Saanich, Capital F, Capital G, Capital H, Cole Bay 3, Union Bay 4, East Saanich 2, South Saanich 1

Saanich—Gulf Islands is a federal electoral district in British Columbia, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1988. It is named for its geographical location across the Gulf Islands and Saanich Peninsula in the Vancouver Island region.

Demographics

Panethnic groups in Saanich—Gulf Islands (2011−2021)
Panethnic
group 		2021[2] 2016[3] 2011[4]
Pop. % Pop. % Pop. %
European[a] 88,690 79.64% 85,125 80.99% 85,695 83.94%
East Asian[b] 8,705 7.82% 8,175 7.78% 6,740 6.6%
Indigenous 4,825 4.33% 4,675 4.45% 3,885 3.81%
South Asian 3,820 3.43% 3,285 3.13% 2,350 2.3%
Southeast Asian[c] 2,345 2.11% 1,655 1.57% 1,330 1.3%
African 860 0.77% 705 0.67% 640 0.63%
Latin American 785 0.7% 530 0.5% 490 0.48%
Middle Eastern[d] 670 0.6% 440 0.42% 530 0.52%
Other[e] 660 0.59% 530 0.5% 440 0.43%
Total responses 111,360 98.08% 105,110 97.92% 102,085 97.89%
Total population 113,541 100% 107,339 100% 104,285 100%
Notes: Totals greater than 100% due to multiple origin responses.
Demographics based on 2012 Canadian federal electoral redistribution riding boundaries.

More than 21 percent of Saanich—Gulf Islands' residents are immigrants, and more than 19 percent are older than 65, making this the riding with the third largest senior population in Canada. The riding has a median age of 48.3, making it the riding with the highest median age in Canada.[5] The average family income is $70,814; unemployment is 5.9 percent.

According to the 2016 Canadian census; 2013 representation

Languages: 83.8% English, 2.3% Mandarin, 2.1% Cantonese, 1.5% German, 1.5% French, 1.2% Punjabi
Religions (2011): 46.9% Christian (12.2% Catholic, 10.6% Anglican, 7.8% United Church, 2.2% Baptist, 1.7% Lutheran, 1.5% Presbyterian, 1.1%% Pentecostal, 10.0% Other), 1.3% Buddhist, 1.2% Sikh, 47.3% No religion[6]
Median income (2015): $37,376
Average income (2015): $49,898

Geography

The riding of Saanich—Gulf Islands consists of the north part of the Municipality of Saanich, as well as the municipalities of Central Saanich, North Saanich, and Sidney on Vancouver Island. The district also includes a number of the southern Gulf Islands, including Salt Spring Island, the Pender Islands, Galiano Island, Mayne Island and Saturna Island. The district's southeastern border runs along the University of Victoria.

History

The electoral district was created in 1987 from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands ridings.

The 2012 federal electoral boundaries redistribution concluded that the electoral boundaries of Saanich—Gulf Islands should be adjusted, and a modified electoral district of the same name will be contested in future elections.[7] The redefined Saanich—Gulf Islands loses a small portion of its current territory in the urbanized portion of Saanich to the new district of Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke. These new boundaries were legally defined in the 2013 representation order, which came into effect upon the call of the 42nd Canadian federal election, which was held October 19, 2015.[8]

Political geography

Despite the usually close vote between the various right-leaning parties, the Canadian Alliance, Reform and Conservative parties consistently won the district from 1993 to 2011. From 1953 to 2024, the riding and its predecessor, Esquimalt—Saanich, were only won by a non-conservative candidate five times: 1968 to Liberal David Anderson, in 1988 to New Democrat Lynn Hunter, and in 2011, 2015 and 2019 to Green party leader Elizabeth May, who in 2015 won every poll-district within the constituency. The 1988 Conservative loss is attributed to vote splitting between the Progressive Conservatives and the new Reform party. Despite a Conservative majority in 2011, the Greens won their very first elected seat here and it went on to become their only stronghold in the country. The peninsular portion of the riding is more competitive, with significant support for all parties except the Liberals. However, the Gulf Islands have probably the strongest Green support in the country, with many voters being environmentally conscious, moderate retirees, as well as a notable artist population. Even with the Green collapse nationally in 2021, May held on with 37%, although it was her lowest voteshare in the riding.

Riding associations

Riding associations are the local branches of political parties:

Party Association name President HQ address HQ city
Conservative Saanich—Gulf Islands Conservative Association Ryan T. Trelford Post Office Box 606 Sidney
Green Saanich—Gulf Islands Green Party EDA Dan Kells Post Office Box 20076 Sidney
Liberal Saanich—Gulf Islands Federal Liberal Association Sulo Saravanabawan 460-580 Hornby Street Vancouver
New Democratic Saanich—Gulf Islands Federal NDP Riding Association Sabina Singh Saanich

Members of Parliament

This riding has elected the following members of Parliament:

Parliament Years Member Party
Saanich—Gulf Islands
Riding created from Esquimalt—Saanich
and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands
34th  1988–1993     Lynn Hunter New Democratic
35th  1993–1997     Jack Frazer Reform
36th  1997–2000 Gary Lunn
 2000–2000     Alliance
37th  2000–2003
 2003–2004     Conservative
38th  2004–2006
39th  2006–2008
40th  2008–2011
41st  2011–2015     Elizabeth May Green
42nd  2015–2019
43rd  2019–2021
44th  2021–present

Current member of Parliament

As of 2024, the district's member of Parliament is Green Party leader Elizabeth May. She was first elected in 2011 and was the first Green MP to be elected to the House of Commons.[9] She defeated Conservative incumbent and cabinet minister Gary Lunn.[10][11][12]

Election results

Graph of election results in Saanich—Gulf Islands (1988-,minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)


2021 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Green Elizabeth May 24,648 37.62 -11.47 $85,326.87
Conservative David Busch 14,775 22.55 +2.32 $91,482.76
Liberal Sherri Moore-Arbour 12,056 18.40 +1.78 47,983.06
New Democratic Sabina Singh 11,959 18.25 +5.55 $44,510.15
People's David Hilderman 1,943 2.97 +1.61 $0.00
Communist Dock Currie 141 0.22 - $0.00
Total valid votes/Expense limit 65,522 99.43 – $121,248.58
Total rejected ballots 374 0.57
Turnout 65,896 70.45 -4.18
Eligible voters 93,538
Green hold Swing
Source: Elections Canada[13]
2021 federal election redistributed results[14]
Party Vote %
  Green 25,136 35.77
  Conservative 15,915 22.65
  New Democratic 13,738 19.55
  Liberal 13,216 18.81
  People's 2,115 3.01
  Others 156 0.22
2019 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Green Elizabeth May 33,454 49.09 -5.31 $87,482.73
Conservative David Busch 13,784 20.23 +0.77 none listed
Liberal Ryan Windsor 11,326 16.62 -0.08 none listed
New Democratic Sabina Singh 8,657 12.70 +3.63 none listed
People's Ron Broda 929 1.36 – none listed
Total valid votes/expense limit 68,150 99.53
Total rejected ballots 323 0.47 +0.18
Turnout 68,473 74.63 -4.05
Eligible voters 91,752
Green hold Swing -3.04
Source: Elections Canada[15][16]
2015 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Green Elizabeth May 37,070 54.40 +7.99 $191,615.15
Conservative Robert Boyd 13,260 19.46 −17.02 $148,289.09
Liberal Tim Kane 11,380 16.70 +10.64 $56,913.03
New Democratic Alicia Cormier 6,181 9.07 −1.97 $52,539.33
Libertarian Meghan Jess Porter 249 0.37 – $231.52
Total valid votes/expense limit 68,140 99.71   $223,670.30
Total rejected ballots 201 0.29 –
Turnout 68,341 78.68 –
Eligible voters 86,863
Green hold Swing +12.50
Source: Elections Canada[17][18][19]
2011 federal election redistributed results[20]
Party Vote %
  Green 28,993 46.42
  Conservative 22,785 36.48
  New Democratic 6,898 11.04
  Liberal 3,787 6.06


2011 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Green Elizabeth May 31,890 46.33 +35.88 $87,738
Conservative Gary Lunn 24,544 35.66 −7.77 $89,604
New Democratic Edith Loring-Kuhanga 8,185 11.89 +6.20 $66,273
Liberal Renée Hetherington 4,208 6.11 −33.25 $50,002
Total valid votes/expense limit 68,827 100.0     $293,617
Total rejected ballots 160 0.23
Turnout 68,987 75.25
Eligible voters 91,673
Green gain from Conservative Swing +21.82
2008 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gary Lunn 27,988 43.43 +6.28
Liberal Briony Penn 25,367 39.36 +13.28
Green Andrew Lewis 6,732 10.45 +0.51
New Democratic Julian West 3,667 5.69 −20.85
Libertarian Dale P. Leier 246 0.38 –
Western Block Patricia O'Brien 195 0.3 +0.03
Canadian Action Jeremy Arney 139 0.2 –
Christian Heritage Dan Moreau 114 0.2 –
Total valid votes 64,448 100.0  
Total rejected ballots 179 0.27
Turnout 64,639 70.40
Conservative hold Swing −3.50
Julian West was selected as the New Democratic Party candidate for the 2008 election, but withdrew after the filing deadline following a scandal.[21] Due to the late withdrawal his name remained on the ballot.
2006 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Gary Lunn 24,416 37.15 +2.58 $80,272
New Democratic Jennifer Burgis 17,455 26.54 +4.96 $50,412
Liberal Sheila Orr 17,144 26.08 −0.70 $79,489
Green Andrew Lewis 6,533 9.94 −6.77 $19,061
Western Block Patricia O'Brien 183 0.27 – $0
Total valid votes 65,721 100.0  
Total rejected ballots 134 0.20
Turnout 65,855 73.2
Conservative hold Swing −1.19
2004 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Gary Lunn 22,050 34.57 −18.86 $81,613
Liberal David Mulroney 17,082 26.78 −5.51 $61,819
New Democratic Jennifer Burgis 13,763 21.58 +13.56 $40,318
Green Andrew Lewis 10,662 16.71 +11.20 $79,731
Independent Mary Moreau 214 0.33 – $12
Total valid votes 63,771 100.00  
Total rejected ballots 159 0.25
Turnout 63,930 73.97
Conservative hold Swing −6.68
Conservative change is from a combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative votes.
2000 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Alliance Gary Lunn 25,392 43.15 +0.09 $61,497
Liberal Karen Knott 19,002 32.29 +0.82 $63,669
Progressive Conservative Don Page 6,049 10.28 +2.76 $10,385
New Democratic Pat O'Neill 4,721 8.02 −6.31 $9,666
Green Wally Du Temple 3,243 5.51 +2.77 $7,217
Natural Law Kathleen Lapeyrouse 217 0.36 −0.07 $100
Independent Dan Moreau 123 0.20 –
Communist Charley Stimac 88 0.14 – $189
Total valid votes 58,835 100.00  
Total rejected ballots 165 0.28
Turnout 59,000 70.60
Alliance hold Swing −0.36
Canadian Alliance change is based on the Reform Party.
1997 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Reform Gary Lunn 24,275 43.06 +5.91 $61,075
Liberal Clark Roberts 17,742 31.47 +5.45 $59,743
New Democratic Chuck Beyer 8,080 14.33 −4.53 $29,672
Progressive Conservative Marilyn Loveless 4,243 7.52 −4.00 $23,349
Green Julia Lerner 1,546 2.74 – $745
Natural Law Andy Guest 248 0.43 −0.31 $321
Canadian Action Valerie Rampone 234 0.41 – $4,335
Total valid votes 56,368 100.00  
Total rejected ballots 181 0.32
Turnout 56,549 74.26
Reform hold Swing +0.23
1993 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Reform Jack Frazer 26,016 37.15 +24.67
Liberal Alex Phillips 18,226 26.02 +8.40
New Democratic Lynn Hunter 13,207 18.86 -16.54
Progressive Conservative Marilyn Loveless 8,070 11.52 -21.94
National Judith Rayburn 3,730 5.33 –
Natural Law Andy Guest 521 0.74 –
Independent C.R. Bob Ward 215 0.31 –
Canada Party Arleigh Rolind 52 0.07 –
Total valid votes 70,037 100.0  
Reform gain from New Democratic Swing +8.14
1988 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes %
New Democratic Lynn Hunter 23,168 35.40
Progressive Conservative Patrick D. Crofton 21,900 33.46
Liberal Kathryn Clout 11,534 17.62
Reform Bob Slavick 8,165 12.48
Independent Patrick Kelly 216 0.33
Libertarian William St. John Buckler 214 0.33
Independent Doug Christie 172 0.26
Communist Ernie Knott 78 0.12
Total valid votes 65,447 100.0  
This riding was created from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands, which elected a Progressive Conservative and a New Democrat, respectively, in the previous election. Patrick Crofton was the incumbent from Esquimalt—Saanich.

See also

References

  • "Saanich—Gulf Islands (Code 59024) Census Profile". 2011 census. Government of Canada - Statistics Canada. Retrieved March 6, 2011.
  • Library of Parliament Riding Profile 1987–1996
  • Library of Parliament Riding Profile 1996–2005
  • Expenditures – 2004
  • Expenditures – 2000
  • Expenditures – 1997

Notes

  1. ^ Statistic includes all persons that did not make up part of a visible minority or an indigenous identity.
  2. ^ Statistic includes total responses of "Chinese", "Korean", and "Japanese" under visible minority section on census.
  3. ^ Statistic includes total responses of "Filipino" and "Southeast Asian" under visible minority section on census.
  4. ^ Statistic includes total responses of "West Asian" and "Arab" under visible minority section on census.
  5. ^ Statistic includes total responses of "Visible minority, n.i.e." and "Multiple visible minorities" under visible minority section on census.
  1. ^ a b Statistics Canada: 2011
  2. ^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 26, 2022). "Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  3. ^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 27, 2021). "Census Profile, 2016 Census". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  4. ^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (November 27, 2015). "NHS Profile". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  5. ^ "Census « Pundits' Guide to Canadian Federal Elections". Punditsguide.ca. Retrieved May 13, 2010.
  6. ^ "2011 National Household Survey Profile - Federal electoral district (2013 Representation Order)". May 8, 2013.
  7. ^ Final Report – British Columbia
  8. ^ Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts
  9. ^ Hunter, Justine (May 3, 2011). "Elizabeth May wins first seat for Greens". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Archived from the original on May 7, 2011. Retrieved May 29, 2015.
  10. ^ Harnett, Cindy E.; Lavoie, Judith; Wilson, Carla; Chamberlain, Adrian. "Elizabeth May makes political history as first Green MP; unseats cabinet minister". Vancouver Sun. Archived from the original on March 2, 2019. Retrieved March 30, 2020.
  11. ^ Wintonyk, Darcy (May 2, 2011). "Green Party makes history: Elizabeth May wins seat". British Columbia CTV News. Retrieved March 30, 2020.
  12. ^ Geyer, Felix von (May 3, 2011). "Canada's Green party looks to bright future following Elizabeth May victory | Felix von Geyer". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved March 30, 2020.
  13. ^ "Election Night Results – September 20, 2021 Federal Election". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 28, 2021.
  14. ^ "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  15. ^ "List of confirmed candidates". Elections Canada. Retrieved October 4, 2019.
  16. ^ "Official Voting Results results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 7, 2021.
  17. ^ Elections Canada – Confirmed candidates for Saanich—Gulf Islands, 30 September 2015
  18. ^ Official Voting Results – Saanich—Gulf Islands
  19. ^ "Elections Canada Online – Final Candidates Election Expenses Limits". elections.ca. Archived from the original on August 15, 2015.
  20. ^ Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections
  21. ^ McCulloch, Sandra (September 24, 2008). "NDP candidate who quit over nudity will not be replaced". The Vancouver Sun. Retrieved September 20, 2017.

48°41′42″N 123°24′11″W / 48.695°N 123.403°W / 48.695; -123.403