The 2024 elections resulted into a hung parliament and a minority government led by Michael Barnier being appointed by president Emmanuel Macron. The Constitution of France states "no new dissolution may be carried out within one year of these elections." The National Assembly will therefore remain in session until at least June 2025.[2] However the absence of a stable majority means the current government lives under the threat of a future vote of no confidence as well as losing parliamentery votes which has led to speculations of snap elections taking place well ahead of 2029.[3][4][5]
Background
On 9 June 2024, shortly after 21:00 CEST, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called snap elections in a national address following projections which indicated that the L'Europe Ensembleelectoral list would be significantly eclipsed by the RN in the European Parliament elections in France.[6] In the second round, based on the Interior Ministry's candidate labeling, NFP candidates won 180 seats, with the Ensemble coalition winning 159, RN-supported candidates being elected to 142, and LR candidate taking 39 seats. Since no party reached the requisite 289 seats needed for a majority, the second round resulted in a hung parliament. Unofficial media classifications of candidates' affiliations may differ slightly from those used by the Ministry of Interior: according to Le Monde's analysis, 182 NFP-affiliated candidates were elected, compared with 168 for Ensemble, 143 for the RN, and 45 for LR.[7] The turnout for the second round, 66.63%, likewise set the record for being the highest since 1997.
On 5 September 2024, Macron appointed Michel Barnier from LR as prime minister. He presented his minority government on 19 September and announced on 22 September. On 1 October, Barnier presented his first speech in the National Assembly. Analysts noted that the failure of any bloc to attain support from an absolute majority of deputies could lead to institutional deadlock because any government must be able to survive motions of no confidence against them.[8] Although Macron can call a second snap election, he is unable to do so until at least a year after the 2024 election, as stipulated by Article 12 in the constitution.[2] On 9 October, Barnier survived a motion of no confidence led by 193 members of the NFP and 4 members of LIOT members support.[9]
RN leader Marine Le Pen said on 7 October, “there will be elections in less than a year,” although she did not clarify what kind. Following Le Pen’s speech, Jordan Bardella, president of RN, also hinted at the possibility of early elections. This led to speculation that RN is anticipating early elections.[10] The government is reliant on RN not voting against it in a vote of no confidence, which means RN currently holds a kingmaker role.[11]
Government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon said on 23 October that the government may invoke article 49.3 of the constitution for its 2025 budget. This mechanism allows the government to impose the adoption of a law without a vote of the Assembly, but allows the Assembly to propose a motion of no confidence in response. This came after the government lost a vote in the National Assembly, where left-wing and far-right deputies united to make a temporary tax on the rich into a permanent levy.[12] Analysts described the 2025 budget debate as the first major test for the government.[13]
Electoral system
The 577 members of the National Assembly, known as deputies, are elected for five years by a two-round system in single-member constituencies. A candidate who receives an absolute majority of valid votes and a vote total greater than 25% of the registered electorate is elected in the first round. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates plus any other candidate who received a vote total greater than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.[14]
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