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Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus
Available inEnglish
OwnerMartin Baxter
URLelectoralcalculus.co.uk
CommercialYes
RegistrationNo
Current statusOnline

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting website that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics.

Main features

Electoral Calculus was developed by Martin Baxter,[1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling.[2] The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and in Northern Ireland.[3]

Methodology

The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography,[1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing.[4] It takes account of national polls and trends but excludes local issues.[5]

The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model, which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects.[6] The Strong Transition Model was introduced in October 2007, and considers the effects of strong and weak supporters.[7] The models are explained in detail on the web site.[6]

Predictions

Across the eight general elections from 1992 to 2019, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in seven out of eight (all except 1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in five elections (majority for 1997, 2001, 2005, 2019; no majority for 2010). The mean polling error for the two largest parties was 4.8%.[8][non-primary source needed]

Reception

In 2004, the site was listed by The Guardian as one of the "100 most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions.[9] With reference to the 2010 United Kingdom general election, it was cited by journalists Andrew Rawnsley[10] and Michael White of The Guardian.[11] John Rentoul of The Independent referred to the site after the election.[12]

References

  1. ^ a b "Electoral Calculus". Intute. Retrieved 17 October 2011. An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results.
  2. ^ Ruppert, Evelyn (16 April 2010). "Data mobilisation and the UK 2010 Election". CReSC: The Social Life of Methods. Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change. Archived from the original on 10 September 2011. Retrieved 28 May 2012.
  3. ^ "Scottish Government and Politics on the Internet". School of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy website. Keele University. Retrieved 6 February 2014.
  4. ^ Young, Toby (7 May 2010). "Who predicted the result correctly?". The Daily Telegraph. London. Archived from the original on 8 May 2010. Retrieved 25 May 2012.
  5. ^ "MP's on course to lose his seat". thisiskent.co.uk. 27 April 2012. Archived from the original on 5 May 2013. Retrieved 24 May 2012.
  6. ^ a b Baxter, Martin (8 July 2004). "Transition Model". Electoral Calculus. Retrieved 17 October 2011.
  7. ^ Baxter, Martin (28 October 2007). "Strong Transition Model". Electoral Calculus. Retrieved 17 October 2011.
  8. ^ Electoral Calculus https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html
  9. ^ "Cream of the crop". The Guardian. 16 December 2004. Retrieved 28 May 2012.
  10. ^ Rawnsley, Andrew (22 November 2009). "Why it's very likely the next parliament will be doubly hung". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 17 October 2011. The different formulas used by Electoral Calculus and Swingo both translate a six-point Tory poll lead into a Commons in which the Conservatives are short of a majority.
  11. ^ White, Michael (30 April 2010). "Tony Blair's back. But it's too late for Labour". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 17 October 2011. How is Cameron 'winning' when Tory share of the vote is – on current measure – about 1% to 1.5% up on 2005 (source Electoral Calculus)?
  12. ^ Rentoul, John (17 October 2010). "John Rentoul: Clegg drives his voters away". The Independent. Retrieved 28 May 2012.

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