Economists for Free Trade, previously (before the referendum on Brexit) called Economists for Brexit, is a lobbying group that promoted a no-deal Brexit, which is the situation where the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without a corresponding withdrawal agreement treaty. They believe the UK is better off trading on the terms of the World Trade Organization rather than within the single market and customs union.[1][2] Economists for Free Trade is one of few organisations predicting a positive economic impact of a no-deal Brexit.[3][4]
Led by Professor Patrick Minford, the group maintained close ties to pro-Brexit Conservative MPs.[5][6] Its website was discontinued during 2021, but its advisory board was said to include Jacob Rees-Mogg, Owen Paterson, Matt Ridley and David Jones.[7]
Criticism of Patrick Minford’s Economic Model
A June 2016 critique by the Centre for Economic Performance, a politically independent research centre at the London School of Economics, highlighted the flaws of Minford's economic model for a no-deal Brexit.[8] Their analysis puts into question Minford's figure for economic welfare in the UK to increase by 4% after Brexit and instead predict a 2.3% loss of welfare from Minford's 'Britain Alone' policy.[8]
According to the CEP, Minford overlooks the loss in services trade that would result from leaving the Single Market, such as 'passporting' privileges in financial services.[8] Furthermore, Minford's assumption that goods prices would fall by 10% comes from attributing all producer price differences between the EU and low-cost countries to EU trade barriers, ignoring differences in quality.[8] Minford's approach of ignoring empirical analysis of trade data seems predicated on the view that because statistical analysis is imperfect, it should all be completely ignored.[8] But such statistical biases may reinforce rather than weaken the case for remaining in the EU.[8][needs update]
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