This election cycle returned to its usual four-year cycle after the majority of these elections were last held in the 2021 local elections, having been delayed by a year from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results were a strong showing for the Labour Party, who finished first at the expense of the governing Conservative Party, who finished third and suffered their worst local election defeat since 1996, losing over 500 council seats. The Liberal Democrats finished second for the first time in a local election cycle since 2009.[3]
Background
Significance of these elections
When local elections were held in 2021 the Conservative Party made gains, mainly at the expense of the Labour Party. Since then, the Conservative Party has had several high-profile political scandals and crises and has seen a decrease in their popularity in opinion polling. This was reflected in the poor results for the Conservative Party at both the 2022 and 2023 local elections. As a result of the 2023 local elections, Labour became the party with most members elected to local government for the first time since 2002.[4]
These are to be the second set of local elections held under the Elections Act 2022, a controversial voter identification law that requires[5][6] voters to show photo ID when attending a polling station. This act also means that the mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections will use a first-past-the-post voting system rather than the previously used supplementary vote system.
These local elections were the last set of routine elections before the general election. For this reason, the results were speculated by the media to influence both the date the general election would be scheduled for and the election strategies for each party.
In late 2023, Labour suggested persistently high interest rates were going to cause a surge in mortgage costs affecting 630,000 homeowners who would re-mortgage between then and the local elections in May. They described the situation as a "financial time-bomb" and implied this would influence the electorate in the elections.[8]
Lord Hayward suggested that community activists and smaller parties may drain support away from the three main parties due to the directions of those parties and because the Liberal Democrats "are no longer the obvious choice for voters disillusioned with the two main parties".[9]
As the elections neared, there were suggestions that Prime MinisterRishi Sunak's leadership would be challenged if the results went poorly for his party, particularly if the Conservatives lost either the West Midlands or Tees Valley mayoralties.[10] Sunak quickly sought to insist to his own MPs that he would still be the Prime Minister after these elections, even if the results were poor for his party.[11][12]
In March 2024, The Observer reported that the Conservative Party was expected to lose half its seats at this election, explaining that most of these seats were won at the peak of the "vaccine bounce".[14] Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden also cited the "vaccine bounce" as a reason to expect these elections to be "much tougher" for his party than the last time they were contested.[15]
Also in March 2024, Lewis Baston, a political analyst and author, posted that his analysis showed the Conservative Party was due to lose over 50% of their seats which are not changing boundaries. He found that of 613 seats being defended, they would lose 328 based on the swing seen in the 2023 local elections, but would gain eight elsewhere.[16] However, after more work, by 1 April 2024 he said he thought the Conservatives wouldn't lose half their seats because one third of the seats up for election were not last fought in the 2021 local elections, but were actually fought in tougher elections in 2019, 2022, and 2023.[17]
Analysts Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings also said the Conservative Party was expected to lose half its seats at this election if a similar result to 2023 was repeated. They said the Conservatives would lose around 500 seats while Labour would gain around 300 and the Liberal Democrats and Green Party would both make gains.[18][19]
Sky News' Sam Coates quoted Michael Thrasher's prediction that the Conservatives would lose around 500 seats while Labour would gain around 350, but added that they consider Gloucester Council likely to switch directly from Conservative to Liberal Democrat-controlled.[20]
YouGov conducted an MRP poll on 14–29 April 2024. They said their key findings were that they "expected Labour to make significant gains across the country, but that stories will emerge from specific local authorities which could leave every party with pleasing news". They predicted Labour to gain control of Hyndburn and Milton Keynes councils from no overall control, and to make significant gains in North East Lincolnshire, Peterborough, Thurrock, and Walsall. The Conservatives were expected to make gains in Reigate and Banstead.[21]
BBC analysis of the 2024 United Kingdom local election results said that Labour vote share had fallen 21 percentage points in council wards where more than 20% of residents are Muslim and analysis by Number Cruncher Politics found that Labour lost 33 percentage points in majority-Muslim areas.[48][49]
The Liberal Democrats gained Tunbridge Wells council[50] and Dorset Council, resulting in the party finishing in second place ahead of the governing Conservative Party.[51] They have added more council seats than any other party over the last parliament, gaining more than 750 in the last five years, largely in southern England.[52]
The Greens had their best ever local election result.[53] However, they were unable to win a majority in Bristol City council, missing a majority of seats by two, while staying the largest party in the council.[54]
There are thirty-six metropolitan boroughs, which are single-tier local authorities. Thirty of them elect a third of their councillors every year for three years, with no election in each fourth year. These councils hold their elections on the same timetable, which includes elections in 2024. Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council has held its elections on a four-year cycle from 2016, so is also due to hold an election in 2024.
Due to boundary changes, some other councils which generally elect their councillors in thirds will elect all of their councillors in 2024.
There are sixty-two unitary authorities, which are single-tier local authorities. Fifteen of them elect a third of their councillors every year for three years, with no election in each fourth year. These councils hold their elections on the same timetable, which includes elections in 2024. Two unitary authorities hold all-out elections on a four-year cycle that includes 2024, and the recently established Dorset Council held its first election in 2019, with its next election in 2024 and subsequent elections every four years from 2029.
There are 164 district councils, which are the lower tier local authorities in a two-tier system, with county councils above them. Forty-eight elect their councillors in thirds and seven elect their councillors in halves. Three district councils elect all their councillors on a four-year cycle that includes 2024, with North Hertfordshire changing from the thirds system for the first time. Due to boundary changes, some other councils which usually elect their councillors in thirds or halves electeed all of their councillors in 2024.
Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan was re-elected for a third four-year term, with 43.8% of the vote.[62]
Combined authority mayors
Nine combined authority mayors were be up for election. Labour won eight of the mayoral elections, including gaining the West Midlands mayoralty from the Conservatives. The Conservatives held Tees Valley.
All police and crime commissioners (PCC; or police, fire, and crime commissioners) in England were up for election. Labour gained ten commissioner positions from the Conservatives.
^All vote shares in the infobox are projected national vote shares calculated by the BBC.
^Swing figures are between the BBC national projected vote share extrapolation from 2023 local elections, and the BBC equivalent vote share projection from these local elections held in different areas.
^Davey served as Acting Leader from 13 December 2019 to 27 August 2020 alongside the Party Presidents Baroness Brinton and Mark Pack, following Jo Swinson's election defeat in the 2019 general election. Davey was elected Leader in August 2020.[1]
^ abThe BBC includes the SDP and the WEP in the Independents tally
^Despite holding a majority in Castle Point, the PIP formed a coalition with the CIIP.
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