The President of Costa Rica is elected using a modified two-round system in which a candidate must receive at least 40% of the vote to win in the first round; if no candidate wins in the first round, a runoff will be held between the two candidates with the biggest quantity of votes.[3]
Carlos Alvarado was the first one of the party to announce his intention to run under the slogan of "I choose the future" (Elijo el futuro) and ran under a progressive platform, which sought to exalt the achievements of Luis Guillermo Solis's government and promised to continue with it. Meanwhile, Welmer Ramos's campaign focused more on a moderate and conservative campaign, under the slogan "A citizen like you" (Un ciudadano como usted) and openly criticized the then government to appeal to those who were upset with the administration.
Candidates were deputy Natalia Diaz,[8] and historic leader and deputy Otto Guevara Guth, who will attempt to run for presidency for the fifth time. Guevara won the primary over Diaz by a 10% margin. Otto Guevara's primary campaign was based under a right-wing populist inclination, stating that Donald Trump's presidential campaign had given him new inspiration to run, while Natalia Diaz's campaign promised to bring a new face to the party and offer a new alternative to the party's establishment.[citation needed]
After the 2016 municipal elections, the party lost its only mayor and 258 aldermen, leaving it with little power. Plus, due to Guevara's turnabout from libertarianism to religious conservatism, many party adherents created a new party: the Progressive Liberal Party, under former transport minister Eliécer Feinzag's leadership; or joined Social Christian Unity Party because of its new liberal stance on politics.[citation needed]
National Liberation Party
The internal elections for the National Liberation Party were held on 2 April 2017. The candidates were Sigifredo Aiza Campos, former deputy for the Guanacaste province, then deputy and radio host Rolando González Ulloa, Antonio Álvarez Desanti president of the Legislative Assembly, former minister and presidential candidate who was supported by former president Óscar Arias Sánchez, and former president José María Figueres Olsen.[9] Álvarez Desanti was chosen as the party's candidate.
Several topics like unemployment, corruption, economics, insecurity and poverty are among the main issues that concern the electorate according to polls.[17]
But one particular event that cause uproar in the campaign was the "Cementazo" (lit. cement hit) scandal. A corruption scandal involving political figures of all the main parties,[11] including candidate Otto Guevara, whose properties and parliamentary office were raided by the General Attorney investigating the case. Some analysts point to the Cementazo scandal as one of the reasons for the unexpected ascension in polls of hardline anti-establishment candidate Castro.[11]
During the campaign Castro made a series of highly controversial statements that often caused polemic reactions. Among other things, he accused the Judiciary of having some of its female members ascending due to sexual favors,[18][19] something that sprang harsh responses from female judges and judicial workers.[20] Political figures from other parties reacted with outrage including Desanti's wife Nuria Marin and PAC's vice-president nominee Epsy Campbell.[21][22] He later clarified that he was referring to one particular case of a known female friend of his. He also called for the removal of the prohibition on oil exploitation and gold mining calling those who opposed it "eco-terrorists and extremists".[23] Desanti also said that "extremists should not dictate environmental policies" but mentioned that he opposes oil exploitation. Both Alvarado Quesada and Araya are staunch opponents of all forms of oil exploration and exploitation.[24]
A surprising ruling from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights extending all rights enjoyed by heterosexual couples to same-sex couples made after Costa Rica's government lodged a motion for clarification also had an impact on the campaign. The ruling may require up to 22 signatory countries of the Pact of San José that recognize the contentious authority of the IACHR to change their laws to legalize same-sex marriage (whether by legislative or judicial methods, or both). Most polls show that most Costa Ricans oppose gay marriage albeit with large numbers supporting it (in a general ratio of 60–40%).[25][26][27][28] Opponents of gay marriage were outraged by the ruling, causing an increase in social media support for Christian singer and journalist Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz[29] from the staunchly conservativeNational Restoration Party (a normally small party with testimonial results mostly supported by the Evangelical Christian minority). Alvarado Muñoz was, for the first time for an Evangelical candidate, attracting Catholic voters.[29] Nevertheless, Alvarado Muñoz' gain also saw a counter-reaction. Social media support for progressive pro-gay marriage candidate Carlos Alvarado Quesada was also notable, particularly among millennials and centennials who mostly support socially liberal policies.[29] Some analysts point to a possible polarization between conservative and progressive voters, or among religious and secular or older and younger generations depending on the measure, which pushed both Alvarados into the second round.[29] At least two homophobic attacks were reported.[30][31]
During the run-off campaign, Alvarado Muñoz’ strategy focused on linking his rival with the somewhat unpopular government at the time by pointing out its flaws, errors and scandals.[32] On the contrary, Alvarado Quesada tried to distance himself from Luis Guillermo Solís’ Administration, but at the same time highlighted its achievements.[33] Muñoz also reinforced his idea of defending "pro-life and family" values, whilst Quesada insisted in wanting an inclusive country with no "second class citizens". Quesada's strategy focused in presenting Muñoz as inexperienced and unprepared, pointing out his delay in presenting his second government program as promised and contradictions between him and some of his close collaborators.[34]
A series of controversies affected Muñoz' presidential run, including accusations of plagiarism on his government program,[35] a delay in the presentation of his party's financial reports, high payments to him and some other high-ranking party members for services during the campaign,[36] etc. But probably one of the most damaging was the content of a book written by pastor and tele-evangelist Ronny Chaves (close collaborator of Fabricio and described by him as "spiritual father") calling "La Negrita" or Virgen de los Ángeles (Costa Rica's patron saint) a demon. Something that some analysts highlight as hurtful to many Catholics' feelings causing many of them to switch towards Carlos Alvarado.[37] In fact, the Cartago Province which is Costa Rica's Catholic epicenter and see of the Basílica de Nuestra Señora de los Ángeles is where Quesada's support was higher (75%), on the contrary Fabricio won by wide margin in the mostly Protestant province of Limón.
In the second round Carlos kept San José, Heredia and Cartago Provinces and all of the cantons he won in the first one, and managed to turn Alajuela and Guanacaste on his favor.[38] He also won, again, the foreign vote winning all ballot booths overseas except Singapore were there was a tie. Fabricio kept Puntarenas and Limón as his strongholds and won in all cantons of Limon, most of the Punteranas cantons, four of the northern cantons of Alajuela (San Carlos, Upala, Guatuso and Los Chiles) and Sarapiqui in Heredia.[38]Abstentionism was less during the second round for the first time in history.[38]
Polling and voters' behavior
During pre-campaign Juan Diego Castro emerged as one of the most popular political figures with around 51% of positive opinions, followed by Antonio Álvarez Desanti with 36%, with Libertarian deputy Otto Guevara and former president José María Figueres as the ones with more negative opinions.[39] After the PLN primary in which Desanti won over Figueres by slight margin, Desanti started the campaign as frontrunner for a while with up to 36% support in some early polls.[40] Castro was also among the favorites even before he had a party supporting his candidacy (something required by law in Costa Rica as independent candidates are not allowed). As the campaign continued Desanti suffered a constant decrease in voters' intent.[41] Castro remained as frontrunner for most of 2017, but an erratic and heavily controversial campaign begins to affect him losing support in January. PUSC's Rodolfo Piza remained as second in some polls, later replaced by Castro but still in third place.[42]
The "Cementazo" scandal affected heavily the parties involved (PAC, PLN, PUSC and ML) especially during November and December when the Parliamentary Committee investigating the issue made most of its hearings, with all parties facing a reduction on their support.[43]
The IACHR's ruling on same-sex marriage caused a turmoil in the country, with conservative candidate and staunch opponent Fabricio Alvarado showing a rapid increase in support passing from marginal percentages of around 2–6% to be in the lead with up to 17%. However, Carlos Alvarado's support also started to grow unusually fast especially in mid and late January with the later polls showing him surpassing other candidates including Castro and Piza, passing from sixth to third in a couple of days, and even in a technical tie with Desanti showing possibilities to go into the run-off. Castro appeared in fourth and Piza in fifth place as of late January.[44] PAC's support historically tend to increase in January and after the debates, but it was also possible that its support came from more liberal voters fearful of a religious government.
According to polls Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz took most of his support from Evangelical Christian voters who represented around 70% of his supporters,[45] followed by 20% Roman Catholics and 8% with no religion. Carlos Alvarado Quesada, on the contrary, was mostly supported by Catholics with 52% of his voters belonging to that denomination,[45] followed by 29% non-religious and 13% Protestants.[45] Alvarado Quesada was most popular among urban voters with higher education,[46] whilst Alvarado Muñoz had strong support by those with only elementary or high school levels of education.[46] Also Alvarado Quesada was more popular among voters under 35, whilst Alvarado Muñoz was more popular among women under 35 and voters of both sexes over 55.[46]
A post-election study completed by the University of Costa Rica showed that Alvarado Quesada's success was in part due to his performance in the debates, his campaign and defense of the Rule of law.[47] Whilst Alvarado Muñoz' supporters mentioned defense of the traditional family, the fact that he was a believer and being an alternative to PAC.[47] Religion wasn't such an important factor as originally thought, but 71% of Alvarado Quesada's voters mentioned Ronny Chaves' anti-Catholic statements as something "bad or very bad", against 35% of Fabricio's voters expressing that such thing was indifferent to them.[47] Roman Catholics were 60% more likely to vote for Carlos Alvarado than non-Catholics that were only 30%.[47] Alvarado Quesada had also much more support from middle and High Classes especially from the urban areas and the Central Valley whilst Fabricio's support came from the periphery and coastal areas with higher poverty levels and where the population is lower and less willing to vote at all.[47]
Polling tampering
One day I'll tell you where the fraud was, every Friday we expected a survey that was false.
The last poll of the second round scheduled for 28 March was canceled due to the fact that OPol Consultores' executives alleged that threats had been made against their collaborators. Shortly before this announcement, social media reported that a vehicle registered in the name of the private limited company to which the pollster belongs and led by the director of the company traveled with flags of National Restoration.[49]
Also the poll published by the Institute of Population Studies (IDESPO) of the National University, the only one that showed a wide advantage on the part of Carlos Alvarado over Fabricio, was questioned almost immediately by the digital newspaper El Mundo questioning its methodology.[50] The Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the university's Council reaffirmed the validity of the poll.[51][52] The IDESPO poll would be the closest to the electoral result of the second round together with an informal poll conducted by the Los Paleteros ice cream company.[53]
After the campaign it was made public that during the second round the executive committee of the National Restoration Party had made payments to the polling company OPol according to financial reports submitted to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Party officials reported that these were political consultancies unrelated to the polls, however, subsequent investigations by the newspaper La Nación discovered a contract for the payment of the six polls that were carried out during the second round campaign, of which five were published by El Mundo. In all of them Fabricio Alvarado appeared as the winner by a wide margin. They were immediately shared in the social media of the group and the candidate as well as party personalities and allies including deputy-elect and vice presidential candidate Jonathan Prendas and deputy Mario Redondo. Catherina Convertino, general manager of Opinión Política CyC, a private limited company that owns both OPol and El Mundo newspaper, confirmed to La Nación that the second round polls had been requested by Juan Carlos Campos, head of the National Restoration campaign and that they decided to make it public following the debt of the party in the total payment of the contract.[54]
Map on the left shows the seats won by each party by province. The map on the right shows which party won the plurality in each province in both rounds of the Presidential election.
The National Liberation Party retained its parliamentary plurality despite being third on the presidential ticket with 17 seats, followed by the National Restoration Party obtaining 14, the first time in Costa Rica's history that a religious party gained such large number.[55] The ruling party Citizens' Action became third with 10. This was the first time in Costa Rican history that a ruling party was neither the second nor the third-largest party. However, that changed after a break-up among the National Restoration deputies, which caused more than half to split from the party a few months after the election, thus turning PAC back into first minority.[56] The Social Christian Unity Party gained one more seat (9). The left-wing Broad Front suffered a major setback losing most of its seats passing from 9 to 1,[55] whilst right-wing National Integration returns to Congress for the first time in 20 years with 4 seats, but another schism between the party's leadership and the 2018's nominee Juan Diego Castro causes one of PIN's deputies (a Castro loyalist) to separate.[57] The newly formed party Social Christian Republican gains two deputies.
Opponent candidate Fabricio Alvarado quickly acknowledge defeat and congratulated Carlos Alvarado who he called personally to his phone. He called for the Costa Rican family to be united and for families split by politics to embrace each other.[58]
President of the Electoral Court Antonio Sobrado expressed satisfaction with the electoral process and said that "sovereign people has spoken".[59]
Carlos Alvarado spoke to a crowd of followers in Plaza Roosevelt, San Pedro of Montes de Oca thanking the voluntary workers of his campaign, the members of the different parties that supported him and calling for a government of national unity, and for Congress to quickly solve issues like the tax reform and the Legislative bylaw.[61]
International
Supranational
United Nations – Alice Shackelford on behalf of the United Nations congratulated Costa Rica describing the elections as "peaceful and in an environment of respect" and congratulated voters for choosing a more inclusive society.[62]
Canada – Prime Minister of CanadaJustin Trudeau spoke directly over the phone with Alvarado expressing his satisfaction with having another young voice among world leaders and describing Costa Rica as an example in human rights and environmental policies.[64]
Mexico – President of MexicoEnrique Peña Nieto described the election as "a sample of democratic maturity" congratulating Alvarado and announcing that with the new government "Mexico will continue strengthening the cooperation and economic bonds".[63]
Panama – President of PanamaJuan Carlos Varela after congratulating Alvarado and the Costa Rican people also mentioned that "We'll keep working on a State agenda between our sister nations and peoples".".[63]
Spain – President of the Spanish governmentMariano Rajoy described Costa Rica and Spain as sister nations and said he was sure that both countries would continue strengthening bonds of friendship and cooperation, also highlighting Costa Rica's economic growth and inclusive development in the last governments.[65]
United States – United States Department of State expressed its congratulations on behalf of the US government and described the elections as "pacific, fair and free" and Costa Rica as "promoter of economic prosperity, security and good government in the region."[63]
^ abcMurillo, Álvaro; Rodríguez, Frank (24 January 2018). "Shock religioso impacta apoyo a candidatos" [Religious shock impacts candidate support] (in Spanish). CIEP (UCR). Archived from the original on 26 January 2018. Retrieved 25 January 2018.
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