ABCpsephologistAntony Green described the by-election as a "very poor result for the Liberal Party in South Australia both state and federally", and that a fourth term government gaining a seat at a by-election was unprecedented in Australian history.[7] Much of the anti-Liberal swing was attributed to the unpopularity of then Prime MinisterTony Abbott, and additionally, the remark from then Defence MinisterDavid Johnston several days before the Fisher by-election, where he stated he wouldn't trust South Australia's Australian Submarine Corporation to "build a canoe".[8][9][10][11]
Government lawyer with a background in assisting with the implementation of large capital projects and community initiatives.[6] Endorsed by Such's widow.[13]
One opinion poll was conducted and released by the in-house polling group at The Advertiser, Adelaide's main newspaper. Between one and two weeks prior to the by-election, 400 voters were polled in the seat. Voters were randomly selected at the sole pre-poll booth at Happy Valley Shopping Centre, as well as at Aberfoyle Hub. Primary votes saw 34.25 (−0.85) percent to Liberal, 30 percent to Woodyatt, 20.5 (+2.8) percent to Labor, with a collective 15 percent for the remaining five candidates. The Advertiser claimed that a Liberal primary vote below 40 percent and the high vote for Woodyatt with Labor remaining in third place, preferences could have seen Fisher retained by an independent, Woodyatt.[13]
South Australian Newspoll at the time of the by-election recorded a statewide six percent two-party swing from Liberal to Labor.
Though the Liberals were favourites to win the traditionally Liberal seat,[3] Labor's Nat Cook won the by-election by five votes with Woodyatt preferences, a 50.02 percent two-party-preferred vote from a 7.27 percent swing away from the Liberals, resulting in a change from minority to majority government. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept crossbench MPs Geoff Brock and Martin Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority. The Liberals were successful in requesting a re-count which occurred on 15 December.[4][5][6][18][19]
Labor achieved majority government at a state level one week prior at the 2014 Victorian election.
ABCpsephologistAntony Green described the by-election as a "very poor result for the Liberal Party in South Australia both state and federally", and that a fourth term government gaining a seat at a by-election was unprecedented in Australian history.[7] Much of the anti-Liberal swing was attributed to the unpopularity of then Prime MinisterTony Abbott, and additionally, the remark from then Defence MinisterDavid Johnston several days before the by-election, where he stated he wouldn't trust South Australia's Australian Submarine Corporation to "build a canoe".[8][9][10][11]
Former Liberal leader Iain Evans in Davenport resigned from parliament on 30 October 2014 which triggered a 2015 Davenport by-election for 31 January.[20][21][22][23] Just a couple of days before the Davenport by-election, Abbott's infamous knighting of Prince Philip occurred.[24][25] Liberal Sam Duluk won the seat despite a five percent two-party swing, turning the historically safe seat of Davenport in to a two-party marginal seat for the first time.[26]ABCpsephologistAntony Green described it as "another poor result for the South Australian Liberal Party".[27]
