The State of Washington was considered a competitive swing state in 2004, and on election day, Kerry won the state with a margin of 7.2%. This is the most recent presidential election in which Washington was considered a swing state.[2] As of the 2020 presidential election[update], this remains the last time the state's margin of victory was in single digits and the last time a Republican received more than 45% of the state's vote. This also remains the only time since statehood that any president was elected twice without carrying Washington either time.
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[3]
Source
Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Solid D
Cook Political Report
Solid D
Newsweek
Solid D
Zogby International
Likely D
Washington Post
Likely D
Research 2000
Solid D
Washington Times
Solid D
Washington Dispatch
Likely D
The New York Times
Solid D
CNN
Likely D
Associated Press
Solid D
Rasmussen Reports
Likely D
Polling
Kerry won every single pre-election except one tie. The final 3 poll average had Kerry winning with 50% to 45%.[4]
Fundraising
Bush raised $3,263,363.[5] Kerry raised $5,337,921.[6]
Advertising and visits
Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[7][8]
Analysis
A Democratic leaning swing state at the time, Washington has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every presidential election since 1988. Like Oregon, the state is divided politically by the urban/rural divide and geographically by the Cascade Mountains. Most of the state's population resides in Western Washington along the Pacific Coast and in highly urbanized areas like Seattle; this part of the state votes overwhelmingly Democratic. The other side of the mountains in Eastern Washington is much more rural and conservative and therefore heavily Republican. While polling showed that voters trusted Bush more than Kerry on the issue of terrorism, the Iraq War and Bush's domestic policies were unpopular in the state.[9] As of the 2020 presidential election[update], this is the last election in which Clark County, Island County, and Skagit County voted for the Republican candidate.
Results
2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
Technically the voters of Washington cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Washington is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:
